artificial general intelligence

“So I'm pretty confident that we'll have models of the world, internal ideas about how the world works. I don't see how to build an AI without it.”

“I don't like the term AGI, artificial general intelligence, because I think human intelligence is very specialized. So if you want to designate the type of intelligence that we observe in, in humans by general, that's a complete misnomer.”

“I, I've been thinking about this whole thing as a dress rehearsal. And before we didn't know how to make a dress rehearsal. This is a dress rehearsal for AGI. And you know, the lesson of the dress rehearsal is like, we are not ready for prime time. Let us not …”

“I think at the end of the day, we don't need to be worried about the AI nearly as much as people using AI as a tool to enact totally human perversions on the rest of the world. It's going to be religious extremists who decide that they're going to use this to …”

“Others are talking about, well, our stated goal is that we want an artificially generally intelligent system. That is not our stated goal. Our stated goal is that we want to just be very pragmatic, meet customers where they're at today, and then provide capabi…”

“Once we solve one problem that typically opens up and shows this kind of branching set of new problems, the AGI system will be able to kind of trans translate across that problem space at a speed and scale that we can't even imagine today.”

“A six member nonprofit board of directors is the Half dozen group that will decide when OpenAI has quote unquote attained AGI.”

“They both have this sort of mythology in their heads about this, you know, godlike AI being that is just around the corner.”

“People begin to really change their own definitions of what artificial general intelligence means, what sentience means, what humanity means, in order to make these things seem more plausible or more true than they really are.”

“We always said that we didn't want AGI to be controlled by a small set of people. We wanted to be democratized, and we clearly got that wrong.”

“That one seems harder than AGI.”

“I think that Sam is genuinely focused on AGI and attaining that. And I think he does not care about Graphics and, you know, video necessarily. I think he, those are stepping stones and that helps research you know, get to the next point, but I think he is very…”

“Intelligence is going to be constantly getting better, but it is going to be human assisted. Ah, ah, intelligence assisting humans is going to be the future, rest my guess.”

“The way I've been thinking about it, which is, which has less to do with like maybe AGI in the world and more so about, I think it's long-term impact is the kind of model which can automate or significantly speed up AI research.”

“In the world where they happen within a few years, I think what you're looking at is China has a ton of leverage over the United States because they, one of the things future AI could unlock is things like pocket nukes, right? And so China is ahead. They could…”

“You shouldn't be, like, sure that they're gonna we're on the track of AGI because, yeah, fundamentally we don't know what kinds of things these are.”

“And so that's why, that's what I've been thinking about when I think in terms of AGI, can it speed up AI research? And yeah, I think that's like a plausible thing within the next five to 10 years.”

“And you know, what people were talking about at the company in terms of timelines to something dangerous were like, there were people talking, a lot of people talking about similar things to like the predictions of like, Leopold Aschenbrenner, where it's like …”

“Some agencies like the SEC takes the view that most anything could potentially be the sort of thing you'd have privilege to complain to the SEC about because it could potentially affect the value of the company. And to the extent it's potentially affecting the…”

“If kind of these, you know, development efforts in, in, in, in hardware and in, in algorithms continue, then it looks very likely that we will succeed in this.”

“The business models, but these technologies are so transformative that the ability to actually crack open AGI or something that even resembles something close to the power of that is so transformative for the economy that this is a real long game that they're …”

“And I think that actually has a big downside when you're actually trying to sell something packaged like that to businesses, which is that you're giving them this Swiss army knife of a tool that has all these general capabilities, and the risk is that your end…”

“I mean, with that definition of AGI, I think it's both Achievable and a fairly reasonable target.”

“I don't know about God. Like, I don't think I'd ever use that term to describe what's coming. I think we're going to have some really powerful and useful tools. Emerge. I think that's what's coming. The idea that we're building AGI or something that's just gon…”

“I actually take, I think the less popular view, which is The internet is enough, and by observation, you can actually learn enough to be extremely, extremely compelling. I think that's if we're talking about AGI and doing things as well as humans do, I think t…”

“There's not one like clear accepted definition or one clear vision that's communicated by the biggest people in the field, the Sam Altman's and everything else. So it remains this murky kind of like dystopian robots taking over who knows what it is, will be a …”

“I think that that has led a lot of the investment and a lot of the hype around this that will eventually get there. But it just doesn't seem like it's gonna be through the traditional scaling of LLMs.”

“Maybe we need one or two more transformer-like breakthroughs. And I, and I'm, I think I'm genuinely uncertain about that. So that's why I say 50%. So I mean, I wouldn't be surprised either way if we got there with existing techniques and things we already knew…”

“The model itself is not enough To be an AGI. You need this other capability for it to act in the world and solve problems for you.”

“I think you know, I would say probably like three to five years away.”

“There's not going to be like a day Before which there is no AGI and after which we have AGI. This is not going to be an event. It's going to be continuous conceptual ideas that as time goes by are going to be made bigger and to scale and going to work better, …”

“It doesn't instinctively feel to me like we're two to three years away. I know some people think that it is, and I respect them deeply. Like a lot of smart people can disagree on stuff like that. I feel like we're still a good decade or so away. And when a sci…”

“The term AGI and this idea of AI consciousness, they, I think they're real terms and they are worth taking seriously. But right now what they are is marketing.”

“You know, that's, I think we don't have systems yet that can do that type of creativity. I think they're coming and these types of paradigms might be helpful in that things like thinking and then probably many other things.”

“Assuming there is one, you know, there probably will be some organizations that get there first, and I think it's important to, that those first systems are built reliably and safely, and I think after that, if that's the case, you know, we can imagine using t…”

“I'm just after.”

“2030. Boy, you really kind of, ah, put it on that fine line. I'm gonna say before.”

“I think it will need to understand emotion. I don't know if I think it will be a sort of almost a design decision if we wanted to mimic emotions. I think there's no, I don't see any reason why it couldn't in theory. But it might be different or we might, it mi…”

“What I would call AGI, is really a more theoretical construct, which is what is the human brain as an architecture able to do, right? And that's, the human brain's an important reference point because it's the only evidence we have maybe in the universe that g…”

“Shane Legg, who's our chief scientist who was one of the people who invented the term 25 years back.”

“For something to be called AGI, it would need to be consistent, much more consistent across the board Than it is today. It should take, like, a couple of months for maybe a team of experts to find a hole in it, an obvious hole in it. Whereas, you know, today i…”

“I guess I would suppose that one company or country or entity will reach AGI first. Now it is a little bit of a, you know, kind of a spectrum. It's not like a completely precise thing, so it's conceivable that there will be more than one roughly in that range …”

“And I think to get all the way to something like AGI, I think may require one or two more new breakthroughs.”

“We fully intend that Gemini will be the very first AGI, clarify that.”

“So like with Gemini models, with VO models, all those kinds of generative AI models and exciting things that is happening there. That's our main line of AGI research that's going on.”

“There's not going to be like a day Before which there is no AGI and after which we have AGI. This is not going to be an event.”

“Clearly the messaging worked. Everyone started saying it. It absolved people from having to achieve AGI or when everyone is saying AGI is already here, yet life doesn't feel significantly different.”

“I'm expecting a fifty-fifty if I had to like make a guess, I had to make a bet. I just say, 20 32, we have like real AGI that's doing continual learning and everything.”

“Like I do think companies will continue to pour exponentially more computing to train these systems and they'll continue to do it over the next many years, because even if there's diminishing returns, the value of intelligence is so high that it's still worth …”

“I don't think we're just right around our corner from AGI and it's just a little additional dash of something. That's all it's going to take. I think, you know, people often ask if all AI progress stopped right now and all you could do is collect more data or …”

“I'm not bought in that AGI is going to be here by 2030”

“And if we're only a couple of years away, do I think that Meta can win that race? Not if we're a couple of years away, I don't think so.”

“AGI, we do not have evidence it's possible. We don't understand how humans think. How the fuck are we meant to create it in a computer?”

“I hate to make bold predictions, especially in tech, because you can often be spectacularly wrong, but I do not think they're going to say GPT-V is anything approaching AGI, however you choose to define it.”

“So I think these terms are totally meaningless. I don't know what AGI is. I don't know what super intelligence is. It sounds like a marketing term.”

“Part of their original contract with, you know, the quote-unquote clause in it around AGI Was that Microsoft said that they would not you know, themselves go to work on, go after AGI and working on that.”

“I'll stand on the table here and say it's the same thing. I think it's, if there were different techniques, I think this is really what it comes down to. If there were different techniques to build AGI and super intelligence, I would say, okay, sure, you know,…”

“And so I do, I think we're at a system that I would call AGI. No. But I think we see, we start to see the traces and the pieces of that overall system for generalized learning start to come together in models like GPT-V and I suspect suspect in its successors.”

“Whomever reaches AGI first, they're not going to go into intelligence explosion and just like suddenly, you know, super intelligence gets born. People, you know, other labs will catch up really quickly. And then, you know, there's going to be a lot of models. …”

“In June, Sam Altman said AGI will be more of a gentle singularity.”

“And that same month, Andre Karpathy forecasted a decade of agents rather than AGI in 20, 27.”

“I think that the overall, the only way any of this makes sense is if we realize this vision of just like heavy compute AGI, which there's no real signs pointing to, at least that I can see.”

“Unless they do truly transform everything with the, you know, again, we call it, we can call it AGI. We can call it super, super intelligence. We can call it anything we want, but unless it truly transforms everything, it feels like it will be a, both a letdow…”

“Superintelligence and AGI are really goals rather than methods, and I think that the ambition is to create superhuman performance at most or all human tasks.”

“It seems to me much, much more likely That it's going to be a more diverse and dispersed technology than that. There's a lot of early evidence that some of the most useful and commercial Models are quite specific ones, are small specific ones.”

“This idea that within a couple years, the current AI technology will turn into artificial general intelligence or super intelligence”

“Our slogan is ROI over AGI. As long as our business customers are getting an ROI, that is what we're focused on.”

“We might not get there with the exact technology that we're using for large language models at the moment, but it feels like some way that we want to get to with sort of frontier level at AI.”

“There's no such thing as like one system that is going to be solving all of the problems of the world. And so at the end of the day, or you just don't believe in that context at all. It's never going to exist. I mean, there's, you have a wealth of problems, ju…”

“No matter what camp you're in, we're gonna need Large foundation models as the key component of the final AGI systems. Of that, I'm sure. So, I don't, I'm not subscriber to someone like Jan LeCun who thinks, you know, that there's sort of some kind of dead end…”

“I'm definitely a subscriber to the idea that maybe we need one or two more big breakthroughs before we'll get to AGI, and I think they're along the lines of things like continual learning, better memory, longer context windows, or perhaps more efficient contex…”

“I don't think AGI should be sort of turned into a marketing term or for commercial gain. I think there is always been a scientific definition of that. My definition of that is a system that that can exhibit all the cognitive capabilities humans can. And I mean…”

“I think an AGI system would have to be able to do all of those things to really fulfill the original sort of goal of the AI field. And I think, you know, we're five to 10 years away from that.”

“And then, of course, that would be, I think, essential for a GI, because that would allow these systems to plan, long-term plan, in the real world over, perhaps, very long time horizons, which, of course, we as humans can do, you know I'll spend four years get…”

“I mean, that's what to me is, it would be the AGI moment is, you know, then it will discover a new superconductor, room temperature superconductor that's possible in the laws of physics, but we just haven't found that needle in the haystack. Or a new source of…”

“Learning is a critical part of agenda of AGI. It's actually almost the defining feature. When we say general, we mean general learning. Can it learn new knowledge and can it learn across any domain? That's the general part. So for me, learning is synonymous wi…”

“And I think it's gonna probably over the next few years amplify, which is for a given task, the models from last year are sufficient. And the new models will be necessary to achieve some semblance of super intelligence or artificial general intelligence, but w…”

“I don't characterize this tool use as like a hack. I think it's actually a structural input to long-running agents, which will probably be what we need to create something close to AGI.”

“I tend to actually place my bet not on the fact that we're going to reach like a single super intelligent agent, but on the fact that we are much more likely to live in a future where there's going to be many agents for many things. And so some agents will abs…”

“I think that I'd say I'm, Basically, like, 70, 80% there, so I think we're quite close.”

“I think it's extremely clear that we are going to have AGI within the next couple years in a way that is still going to be jagged, but that the floor of task will just be almost for any intellectual task of how you use your computer. The AI will be able to do …”

“And I think that we have definitively answered that question of it's, it is going to go to AGI. Like we see line of sight and that it is at this point, we have line of sight to these much better models that are coming this year.”

“So the whole concept of AGI that it's going to be equal to people at everything all at the same time doesn't really make sense to me. It's going to be better at some things, worse at other things.”

“But right now, I would say we're at about, we're close to AGI, because if I ask a chatbot, I can ask it any question, and most of the time it'll answer at the level of a not very good expert. It'll be much better than me at anything I don't know a lot about. S…”

“And I think that the question of what's the interface you want, what is the product that you want, is what we spend a lot of time thinking about. And the answer is you want almost no interface. You want no product. Right. You want this to be like, what's the i…”

“Yeah, so when the phrase, when the question is phrased like this, does an LLM, a large language model by itself, lead to AGI, the answer is a clear no.”

“The model alone, the foundation model alone, is, is not an AGI. No, you need the other guy, which uses all kinds of tricks to exploit The algorithmic information in the world model to come up with better plans.”

“I think both, you know, DeepSeek and Kimi, if not seen as kind of the top two labs right now coming out of China, both founders have openly talked a lot about management of people you know, removing distractions, really focused on the pursuit of AGI, not kind …”

“I think open AI strategy is everybody underestimates AGI all in AGI and we're going to be the most aggressive and everybody else is going to take fewer risks than we do.”

“I think that the eight players around this four D chess board Think they are playing for the highest stakes in the universe. They are playing to be the emperor of the universe, and whatever that means. The person who controls AGI, whatever that means.”

“In some ways I worry for Amazon, which is like, Heads I lose, tails I lose. It's like, if this all goes well and AGI happens, they're not well positioned for that. And then if it doesn't happen, they're kind of in the bath with everybody else on the capex that…”

“If you kind of think about those dollars of CapEx, the only possible way to pay those dollars back is going to be AGI.”

“Investors that I've talked to are very cynical, so they're perfectly happy to use that in front of their own LPs, but they don't believe that in house. They look at this very cynically and with very cold calculating eyes and compare it to other similar real es…”

“Do you know what, to me, what actually the greatest danger in the world to open AI is, is to say AGI is here. And then everyone goes to ChatGPT, types in something, and gets a lukewarm response that isn't quite right. And then suddenly, I actually think that i…”

“I don't think he thinks it's here. Otherwise, he would say it. He's a, I mean, these guys, like, Greg Brockman, they are believers. I believe they are believers. So, if they believed it, they would say it.”