artificial general intelligence

also referred to as: agi

30 statements across 23 episodes · 17 bullish · 7 bearish · 22 people on the record · first statement Aug 31, 2023 by Eugene Cheah · across every show →

Everything said about artificial general intelligence, oldest first

Aug 31, 2023 neutral
Opinion
The Token Shortage Crisis Only Applies to AGI, Not Small Models
“I would say if we are aiming for AGI, there is a token crisis, but if we are aiming for useful small models, I don't think there is a token crisis.”
Eugene Cheah Aug 31, 2023 ▶ 1:27:16 RWKV: Reinventing RNNs for the Transformer Era
Feb 7, 2024 positive
Insight
Hsu: AGI should be judged by functional output, not human-like cognition
“The trick is, if the output is the same as a human, then I'm happy, basically. I don't really care about what's going on inside. And so it feels like caring about the inside is like a pretty high bar. Like, why do you care? It's kind of like the plane thing, l…”
David Hsu Feb 7, 2024 ▶ 1:05:17 The State of AI in production — with David Hsu of Retool
Mar 6, 2024 bullish
Insight
Chintala: Open source will reach AGI via pure natural selection
“The open source thing will be very much in line with getting to AGI, because open source has that, like natural selection effect. Like, if a better open source model comes, Really no one says, huh, I don't want to use it because there are ecosystem effects, I'…”
Soumith Chintala Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 1:17:21 Open Source AI is AI we can Trust — with Soumith Chintala of Meta AI
Mar 6, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chintala: Path to AGI will be continuous, not a sudden threshold
“The whole process of, like, how we think we got to AGI will be continuous and not, like, not discontinuous”
Soumith Chintala Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 1:17:06 Open Source AI is AI we can Trust — with Soumith Chintala of Meta AI
Mar 27, 2024 bullish
Insight
Luan: AGI means performing any task a human can do on a computer
“I think agents are just absolutely the correct long-term direction, right? You just go to find what AGI is, right? You're like, hey, like, Well, first off, actually, I don't love AGI definitions that involve human replacement because I don't think that's actua…”
David Luan Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 4:34 Why Google failed to make GPT-3 -- with David Luan of Adept
Apr 27, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Big AI labs build AGI internally while giving the public child-proof apps
“In some sense, the big AI companies are incentivized and interested in building AGI internally, and giving everybody else a child-proof application.”
Joscha Bach Apr 27, 2024 ▶ 1:27:38 This World Does Not Exist — Joscha Bach, Karan Malhotra, Rob Haisfield (WorldSim, WebSim, Liquid AI)
Sep 17, 2024 positive
Opinion
OpenAI's API is its broadest vehicle for distributing AGI
“So I believe that the API is kind of our broadest vehicle for distributing AGI. You know, we're building some first party products, but they'll never reach every niche in the world and kind of every corner in community.”
Michelle Pokrass Sep 17, 2024 ▶ 47:41 Building AGI with OpenAI's Structured Outputs API
Sep 27, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shunyu Yao predicts training models on human computer trajectories achieves AGI
“The simplest way to achieve AGI is literally just record the re-actuatory of every human being and just put them together, you know, like what do you have thought about? What do you have done? Let's say on the computer, right? Imagine like solid experiment. Li…”
Shunyu Yao Sep 27, 2024 ▶ 1:02:07 Language Agents: From Reasoning to Acting — with Shunyu Yao of OpenAI, Harrison Chase of LangGraph
Nov 15, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Crivello: Tech industry will not fix OAuth for AI agents before AGI
“I'm not optimistic On us actually patching OAuth, because I agree with you ultimately, like we would want to patch OAuth, because the new account thing is kind of a cludge. It's really a hack. You would want to patch OAuth to have more granular access control …”
Florent Crivello Nov 15, 2024 ▶ 8:15 Agents @ Work: Lindy.ai (with live demo!)
Jan 26, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Beauchamp: Timeline for AGI has certainly been pushed out
“I think the odds, the timeline for AGI has certainly been pushed out, right?”
William Beauchamp Jan 26, 2025 ▶ 52:02 Outlasting Noam Shazeer, Crowdsourcing Chai AI w/ 1.4m DAU — with William Beauchamp, Chai Research
Feb 11, 2025 neutral
Insight
AGI Real-World Impact Will Be Bottlenecked by Physical Processes, Not Intelligence
“It seems likely to me that, you know, at first and something that is AGI will be good in digital domains you know, because it's software. So if you think about something like AI discovering a new say like pharmaceutical therapy, the barrier to that is probably…”
Bret Taylor Feb 11, 2025 ▶ 59:44 The AI Architect: Bret Taylor
Mar 13, 2025 positive
Insight
Husain: AI evaluation principles are evergreen unless AGI arrives
“And I found that, like, the subject is pretty evergreen, because we're not, you know, over the last year and a half, like, the same principles apply. And, you know, we're not really talking about Like, you know, using specific tools and APIs is more of a gener…”
Hamel Husain Mar 13, 2025 ▶ 10:32 [Lightning Pod] Evals: How to Improve AI Consistently — with Hamel Husain and Shreya Shankar
Jul 18, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kamradt Predicts AGI Will Require Heavy Scaffolding and Cooperating Components
“Now I know that sounds kind of like a weird question, but my current hypothesis that AGI will be heavily scaffolded. And why do you have that? Well, my hypothesis is that you're going to need different components that are working together in order to get the e…”
Greg Kamradt Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 15:54 ⚡️ARC-AGI-3: The Interactive Reasoning Benchmark
Jul 18, 2025 neutral
Insight
Kamradt Defines AGI as When AI Can Solve All Human-Created Tasks
“Because our hypothesis and our definition of AGI is as long as we can come up with problems that humans can do and AI cannot, then we do not have AGI. And then the flip side of that is also true, which is When us as ArcPrize, we're like, we consider ourselves,…”
Greg Kamradt Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 26:28 ⚡️ARC-AGI-3: The Interactive Reasoning Benchmark
Jul 18, 2025 negative
Opinion
Kamradt: Any AGI Definition Involving Profit Has Ulterior Motives
“Any AGI definition that involves money has ulterior motives. I mean, simple as that. Money has nothing to do with intelligence, right?”
Greg Kamradt Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 31:25 ⚡️ARC-AGI-3: The Interactive Reasoning Benchmark
Jul 18, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kamradt Predicts AGI Will Be Declared Via An Interactive Benchmark
“My hypothesis is that when AGI is declared, it will happen via an interactive benchmark. We're not going to know that AGI is here just via a static benchmark.”
Greg Kamradt Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 7:38 ⚡️ARC-AGI-3: The Interactive Reasoning Benchmark
Aug 15, 2025 positive
Opinion
Brockman: AGI will be a menagerie of models, not a single model
“The flip side, though, is that I think that the evidence has been away from having the final form factor, the AGI itself being a single model. But instead thinking about this menagerie of models that have different strengths and weaknesses.”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 41:10 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Aug 19, 2025 negative
Opinion
Huber: Silicon Valley treats AGI as a secular religion
“I think AGI is also a religion. It has a problem of evil. We don't have enough intelligence. It has a solution, a deus ex machina. It has the second coming of Christ that AGI, the singularity is going to come. It's going to save humanity because we will now ha…”
Jeff Huber Aug 19, 2025 ▶ 48:45 Long Live Context Engineering - with Jeff Huber of Chroma
Dec 31, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McGrath: AGI will be a single tool that decides its own thinking time
“Yeah, I think, like, eventually, you know, we'll have AGI, and like, you're not gonna have to worry too much about how hard to think directly. It'll just, you know, we'll have a one tool that you always go to, and it knows how long to think for, and things lik…”
Josh McGrath Dec 31, 2025 ▶ 15:23 [State of Post-Training] From GPT-4.1 to 5.1: RLVR, Agent & Token Efficiency — Josh McGrath, OpenAI
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
What-if
Tay: Present AI Milestones Would Have Been Viewed as AGI Five Years Ago
“If you just look at the AI progress now and five years ago, I think people would think that we already reached like AGI.”
Yi Tay Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 24:53 Captaining IMO Gold, Deep Think, On-Policy RL, Feeling the AGI in Singapore — Yi Tay
Jan 23, 2026 neutral
Disclosure
DeepMind Singapore Explicitly Adds AGI to Job Postings
“I think that, like, one reason why we work on these models is that we want to get to AGI, and, like, this was a right thing that we added AGI to the job posting, yeah. There is no, like, formal name of the team yet, but it's basically the Gemini theme Singapor…”
Yi Tay Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 1:10 Captaining IMO Gold, Deep Think, On-Policy RL, Feeling the AGI in Singapore — Yi Tay
Jan 23, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yi Tay: The Architecture That Achieves AGI Will Still Be a Transformer
“It will be a transformer, I think. Like people, it depends on what you call it, but I think unless the paradigm shifts completely, which is, I mean, as a scientist, you cannot like completely say no to like that, this would never happen. But my feeling is that…”
Yi Tay Jan 23, 2026 ▶ 46:26 Captaining IMO Gold, Deep Think, On-Policy RL, Feeling the AGI in Singapore — Yi Tay
Feb 19, 2026
Insight
Wang: AI startups face a dilemma balancing AGI research with product revenue
“I think the best researchers in the world have this dilemma of, okay, I want to go all in on AGI, but it's the product usage revenue flywheel that keeps the revenue in the house to power all the GPUs to get to AGI. And so it does make you know, I think it sets…”
Sarah Wang Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 13:09 Inside AI’s $10B+ Capital Flywheel — Martin Casado & Sarah Wang of a16z
Mar 17, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Swix: Claude Cowork is the closest feeling to AGI this year
“It is the closest I've felt to AGI this year.”
Shawn Wang Mar 17, 2026 ▶ 1:27:17 Anthropic’s Felix Rieseberg on AI Coworkers, Local-First Agents, and the Future of Knowledge Work
Apr 15, 2026 bullish
Insight
Simon Last Argues That Coding Agents Are the Kernel of AGI
“I think one thing that's becoming more clear is I think like coding agents are the kernel VGI, sort of everything is a coding agent.”
Simon Last Apr 15, 2026 ▶ 6:09 Notion’s Sarah Sachs & Simon Last on Custom Agents, Evals, and the Future of Work
Jun 18, 2026 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Anthropic made coding its day-one priority as the mechanism to AGI
“And there, P zero from day one was coding. The reason the mechanism system there was, if we crack coding, Then we will crack AGI. You know, our mission is AGI. We want to get there safely. If we focus on coding, it's such a generally powerful capability that i…”
Anjney Midha Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 54:24 Why AI Labs With Unlimited GPUs Still Fail — Anjney Midha, AMP
Jul 10, 2026 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swyx: LLMs will plateau and potentially trigger a 30-year AI winter
“Yeah, probably LLMs are going to run out at some point and they're not AGI and okay, we have maybe another 30 years of AI winter or something and then like the next paradigm really is actually the thing.”
Shawn Wang Jul 10, 2026 ▶ 15:39 Podcast Crossover: AIE, AGI, frontier lab strategy with ​ ⁨@matthew_berman⁩ and @swyxtv
Jul 22, 2026 bullish
Insight
Kant: Long-horizon coding tasks are the path to AGI
“We think focusing on coding and long horizon software tasks is a path towards AGI because it forces us to solve the hard problems.”
Eiso Kant Jul 22, 2026 ▶ 1:06:28 The AI Frontier: from open weights to open research — Eiso Kant, Poolside AI
Jul 22, 2026 negative
Opinion
Kant: Audio does not push AI models closer to AGI
“I don't think audio. Adds to that. I don't think it pushes us close to AGI. I think it is a necessary modality as you get close to AGI.”
Eiso Kant Jul 22, 2026 ▶ 1:16:10 The AI Frontier: from open weights to open research — Eiso Kant, Poolside AI
Aug 21, 2026 bullish
Insight
Park: AGI and simulation are the twin pillar technologies of advanced civilizations
“You look at any advanced civilization in science fiction, there's two twin pillar technology. One's AGI in some form, and the other is simulation.”
Joon Sung Park Aug 21, 2026 ▶ 1:07:17 Simulating Humanity: from Generative Agents to 8 Billion Digital Twins — Joon Sung Park, Simile AI
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