artificial general intelligence

also referred to as: agi

35 statements across 22 episodes · 20 bullish · 7 bearish · 21 people on the record · first statement Apr 25, 2023 by Dr. Percy Liang · across every show →

Everything said about artificial general intelligence, oldest first

Apr 25, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Liang: The AI research community previously viewed AGI as laughable
“I think that for a while it was, you know, perceived by most of the community as you know, laughable.”
Dr. Percy Liang Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 51:44 No Priors Ep. 7 | With Stanford Professor Dr. Percy Liang
Apr 25, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AI was widely considered a dead field when Noam Brown began studying
“The idea of AGI was really science fiction. There were some people that were, you know serious about it, but very few, the majority opinion was that AI was, if anything, it was kind of a dead field.”
Noam Brown Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 3:23 No Priors Ep. 1 | With Noam Brown, Research Scientist at Meta
Apr 25, 2023 positive
Insight
AGI-First Companies Must Make Product Quality Depend Entirely on AI
“The way you have a company that's both AGI first and product first is that you make the, make your product depend entirely on the quality of the AI. Like the most, the biggest determining factor in the quality of our product is, is how smart things gonna be.”
Noam Shazeer Apr 25, 2023 ▶ 29:47 No Priors Ep. 12 | With Noam Shazeer
May 3, 2023 negative
Opinion
OpenAI Is Incorrect That Image Generation Is Not Core to AGI
“I do believe that they are incorrect around multimodality being, or images being a core component of that.”
Emad Mostaque May 3, 2023 ▶ 26:26 No Priors Ep. 3 | With Stability AI’s Emad Mostaque
May 3, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Governments Will Eventually Pour Hundreds of Billions Into AGI Model Scaling
“When governments decide, and I don't believe they've decided yet, that having an AGI is the number one thing, tens of billions, hundreds of billions will go into building bigger models.”
Emad Mostaque May 3, 2023 ▶ 39:38 No Priors Ep. 3 | With Stability AI’s Emad Mostaque
May 11, 2023 positive
Insight
DeepMind synthesized 80 definitions of intelligence into one engineering metric
“And it was his work in, I think he, I think for his PhD thesis, he put together like 80 definitions of intelligence. And aggregated those into a single formulation, which was how do we you know, the intelligence is the ability to perform well across a wide ran…”
Mustafa Suleyman May 11, 2023 ▶ 11:04 No Priors Ep. 16 | With Mustafa Suleyman, Founder of DeepMind and Inflection
Nov 2, 2023 bullish
Insight
Sutskever: AGI requires massive compute engineering projects, not small research efforts
“Because if you imagine how an AGI should look like, it has to be some kind of a big engineering project that's using a lot of compute, right? Even if you don't know how to build it, what that should look like, you know that this is the ideal you want to strive…”
Ilya Sutskever Nov 2, 2023 ▶ 11:32 No Priors Ep. 39 | With OpenAI Co-Founder & Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever
Nov 2, 2023 bearish
Opinion
Sutskever: AGI causing universal unemployment is 'not impossible'
“If you believe that the technology that we are building, AGI, could potentially be so capable as to do every single task that people do, does it mean that it might unemploy everyone? Well, I don't know, but it's not impossible.”
Ilya Sutskever Nov 2, 2023 ▶ 9:09 No Priors Ep. 39 | With OpenAI Co-Founder & Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever
Nov 2, 2023 bullish
Opinion
Sutskever: Transformers can reach AGI; alternatives only offer compute efficiency
“So it's better to think about it in terms of compute efficiency rather than in terms of, can it get there at all? I think at this point, the answer is obviously yes.”
Ilya Sutskever Nov 2, 2023 ▶ 28:00 No Priors Ep. 39 | With OpenAI Co-Founder & Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever
Apr 4, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Adcock: Physical data from robots is crucial to achieving AGI
“We think that information is extreme, like coming off the robot is extremely important to solving this last big piece into the AGI timeline.”
Brett Adcock Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 37:23 No Priors Ep. 58 | The argument for humanoid robots with Brett Adcock from Figure
Apr 4, 2024
Opinion
Adcock: Humanoids must precede AGI to avoid humans becoming physical actuators
“My view here is that we need to get the humanoid robot figured out pre-AGI. And whether we need the humanoid to get there, like, as it relates to the timeline for AGI or not, what I think is a really quite dystopian future is if we have AGI's here, and AGI wan…”
Brett Adcock Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 35:53 No Priors Ep. 58 | The argument for humanoid robots with Brett Adcock from Figure
Apr 25, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Peebles: Sora will evolve into interactive world simulators with autonomous humans
“And so looking forward, as we continue to scale up models like Sora, we think we're going to be able to build these, like, world simulators, where essentially, you know, anybody can interact with them. I, as a human, can have my own simulator running, and I ca…”
Bill Peebles Apr 25, 2024 ▶ 1:52 No Priors Ep.61 | OpenAI's Sora Leaders Aditya Ramesh, Tim Brooks and Bill Peebles
Apr 25, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Peebles: Generative video models are on the critical path to AGI
“Yeah, we absolutely believe models like Sora are really on the critical pathway to AGI.”
Bill Peebles Apr 25, 2024 ▶ 1:07 No Priors Ep.61 | OpenAI's Sora Leaders Aditya Ramesh, Tim Brooks and Bill Peebles
May 22, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Alexandr Wang: Achieving AGI will take multiple decades of solving individual problems.
“My biggest belief here is that the path to AGI is is one that looks a lot more like curing cancer than developing a vaccine. And what I mean by that is I think that the path to build AGI is going to be in, in, you know, you're going to have to solve a bunch of…”
Alexandr Wang May 22, 2024 ▶ 34:53 No Priors Ep. 65 | With Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang
Jun 11, 2024 positive
Insight
Knoop: AGI is properly defined as efficient skill acquisition
“Francois definition, which is the one that I think is the right one is this definition that general intelligence is a system that can effectively, efficiently acquire new skill. That's it efficiently acquiring new skill and being able to solve these open-ended…”
Mike Knoop Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 3:57 No Priors Ep. 68 | With Zapier Co-Founder and Head of AI Mike Knoop
Jun 11, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Knoop: AGI progress has stalled over the last five years
“You know, my belief is that AGI progress has really stalled out over the last four or five years.”
Mike Knoop Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 1:26 No Priors Ep. 68 | With Zapier Co-Founder and Head of AI Mike Knoop
Jun 11, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Knoop: Purely scaling language models will not achieve AGI
“Scaling language models purely will not get there.”
Mike Knoop Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 7:41 No Priors Ep. 68 | With Zapier Co-Founder and Head of AI Mike Knoop
Jul 25, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Liu: Code-gen agents will not replace no-code platforms short of AGI
“I'm just very strongly of the belief that short of AGI, I think we're gonna have a really hard time having fully automated you know, Cogen agents that replace the need for no code, because You actually want to generate the outputs in no code because for a long…”
Howie Liu Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 39:09 No Priors Ep. 73 | With Airtable co-founder and CEO Howie Liu
Aug 1, 2024 neutral
Insight
Vinyals: Achieving monolithic AGI matters less than capability distribution
“The contrarian view would be, I'm not sure it matters that, that we achieved AGI. I think it might not look like Hey, like, it's gonna be exactly like the cognitive task we can do, and then we reach parity. It's gonna be a distribution of things that these mod…”
Oriol Vinyals Aug 1, 2024 ▶ 39:13 No Priors Ep. 74 | With Google DeepMind VP of Research Oriol Vinyals
Aug 1, 2024 neutral
Assertion Supported
Vinyals: Shane Legg predicted in 2009 that AGI arrives by 2028
“Shane, I just had a discussion with him about AGI timelines recently. And I mean, in 2009, he predicted it's 2028.”
Oriol Vinyals Aug 1, 2024 ▶ 38:38 No Priors Ep. 74 | With Google DeepMind VP of Research Oriol Vinyals
Aug 1, 2024 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vinyals: Reaching industry consensus on when AGI arrives will be impossible
“And honestly, it's gonna be also impossible to get agreement, so it's gonna be quite, Cloud of moments that people might feel it has happened now, but it doesn't matter because the models might be used for amazing things and products and research itself, right…”
Oriol Vinyals Aug 1, 2024 ▶ 40:18 No Priors Ep. 74 | With Google DeepMind VP of Research Oriol Vinyals
Aug 30, 2024 neutral
Opinion
Steinberger: A mediocre post-AGI future does not exist; outcomes are bimodal
“Because I can't come up with, like, a mediocre AGI future. It doesn't exist.”
Eric Steinberger Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 33:51 No Priors Ep. 79 | With Magic.dev CEO and Co-Founder Eric Steinberger
Aug 30, 2024 positive
Insight
Steinberger: Capitalism and competition are the only mechanism to navigate AGI safely
“The reality is I really truly believe that capitalism and competition are the only chance we have to provide a, an optimizer that is capable of getting us to the right place. I think we need the right guardrails to do that.”
Eric Steinberger Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 27:59 No Priors Ep. 79 | With Magic.dev CEO and Co-Founder Eric Steinberger
Aug 30, 2024 bullish
Opinion
Steinberger: Etsy exemplifies massive future demand for post-AGI human-made goods
“Etsy is a great proof of concept for what happens after AGI. This is completely useless. Like you could just buy the made in China product. It looks the same, but it's not made by the human, you know, so. That's the thing, I think. Like, that will grow really …”
Eric Steinberger Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 28:44 No Priors Ep. 79 | With Magic.dev CEO and Co-Founder Eric Steinberger
Aug 30, 2024 bullish
Insight
Steinberger: AI alignment is only solvable via recursive automated models
“The only way to sort of reasonably approach this is to iteratively ask your model to solve alignment and safety at that stage, not, not, you know, surely you can also ask it to solve your product level problems, but like that, that's nice, but that's not the f…”
Eric Steinberger Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 11:56 No Priors Ep. 79 | With Magic.dev CEO and Co-Founder Eric Steinberger
Aug 30, 2024 positive
Insight
Steinberger: AGI can be reduced to an AI that writes code and tests ideas
“If you your end goal is to have a system that can do everything you can reduce that to building a system that can build that system. And so that minimal system is a system that writes code and comes up with ideas and can validate those by writing code and runn…”
Eric Steinberger Aug 30, 2024 ▶ 3:15 No Priors Ep. 79 | With Magic.dev CEO and Co-Founder Eric Steinberger
Sep 5, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Karpathy: One billion human thought trajectories would roughly achieve AGI
“The trajectories in your brain as you're doing problem solving. If we had a billion of that, like AGI is here, roughly speaking. I mean, to a very large extent.”
Andrej Karpathy Sep 5, 2024 ▶ 17:54 No Priors Ep. 80 | With Andrej Karpathy from OpenAI and Tesla
Nov 7, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Huang: The world is close to artificial general robotics
“In a lot of ways, we've, we're close to artificial general intelligence, but we're also close to artificial general robotics.”
Jensen Huang Nov 7, 2024 ▶ 27:06 No Priors Ep. 89 | With NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang
Nov 21, 2024 bearish
Opinion
Humanity Will Achieve Broadly Capable AGI but Will Not Build God
“We will build AGI if what you mean is very useful, generally capable technology that can do a lot of the stuff that humans can do and flex into a lot of different domains. If what you mean is, you know, are we gonna build God? No.”
Aidan Gomez Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 38:15 No Priors Ep. 91 | With Cohere Co-Founder and CEO Aidan Gomez
Dec 26, 2024 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wang: The path to AGI resembles curing cancer, not a vaccine
“My biggest belief here is that the path to AGI is is one that looks a lot more like curing cancer than developing a vaccine. And what I mean by that is I think that the path to build AGI is going to be in, in, you know, you're going to have to solve a bunch of…”
Alexandr Wang Dec 26, 2024 ▶ 23:49 No Priors Ep. 95 | Best of 2024
Apr 24, 2025 positive
Insight
Fulford: Information Synthesis Is a Prerequisite for Scientific AI Discovery
“Secondly, I think the overall goal for OpenAI is to create an AGI that can make new scientific discoveries, and we kind of felt that a prerequisite to that is to be able to synthesize information. You know, if you can't write a literature review, you're not go…”
Isa Fulford Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 2:58 No Priors Ep. 112 | With OpenAI Deep Research, Isa Fulford
May 29, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Guo: Near-term commercial uses of world models are uninteresting
“I actually don't know that I believe that any of the sort of more immediate term commercial applications of these models are interesting. People are like, oh, we can generate games or we'll have like gaming assets or we'll use the data for robotics training or…”
Sarah Guo May 29, 2025 ▶ 21:14 No Priors Ep. 116 | With Sarah and Elad
Sep 25, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Liemandt: Parents will spend 10% of their income on kids' education
“It doesn't matter what your income is. Parents will pay 10% of AGI. Right, of their income on their kids' education.”
Joe Liemandt Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 58:23 No Priors Ep. 133 | With Alpha School Principal Joe Liemandt
Mar 12, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Simon Last: AGI Will Essentially Be a Coding Agent
“I think of coding agents as, like, the kernel of AGI. AGI will be a coding agent.”
Simon Last Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 15:10 From Note-Taking App to AI Workspace: The Simon Last Interview
May 1, 2026 bullish
Insight
Srivastava: Even After AGI Is Achieved, Inference Is All That Remains
“Even if there's AGI, all that's left is inference.”
Tuhin Srivastava May 1, 2026 ▶ 40:21 Baseten CEO Tuhin Srivastava on Custom Models, and Building the Inference Cloud
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