artificial general intelligence

“I don't. I think that the breadth of general intelligence is, is far beyond.”

“I'm not sure if I'm as smart as folks like Ray Kurzweil to give an exact date, but I would guess probably in like the, in the most optimistic case in the 20 forties or fifties.”

“So I feel like once you get to AGI and you're able to have machines that can operate 24 seven, sufficiently work together and do further research in the space, you'll probably get to an ASI in a much shorter period of time. Anything from weeks to months to yea…”

“I actually don't think the limitation will be compute power, but the limitation will more be around the type of software that you need to build something as complex and dynamic as a person.”

“I think a lot of startups often go out, or technology companies go out, and feign this experience that, you know, I'm building this machine or AI that's gonna be able to operate just like a person. And I think one of the challenges there is that you start to c…”

“In particular, I think AGI and the thought that we're going to have AI that is better than humans at everything, I think that's a bit overhyped, or at least it's unclear when that might actually happen, and some people say it's going to be sooner, some people …”

“OpenAI is going after a big, hairy, audacious goal of building an AGI. That, to me, is worth pursuing as an investment, but also for society. It may eliminate the need to work for society, Lots of issues there, but it could be really, really exciting if it wor…”

“I think it's still low chance that we're going to get AGI in 10 years”

“No, they're building an AGI to turn the world into utopia. It's written in their path to AGI thing, that they think this can basically bring about utopia.”

“And I think you're totally right that that's a much easier problem to solve much quicker and then slowly grow with the capabilities of these models.”

“It's slightly better defined now, but one of the big issues has always been that we don't really know what that term even means.”

“So if you look at anthropic and open AI, I think they're really chasing for this idea of AGI and they're relatively consumer facing.”

“I find it hard to call something Artificially super intelligent or generally intelligent. If it, all it does is predict the next tokens and you say, oh, predict this next token. It'll predict that next token. I think an intelligent existence probably needs to …”

“And then we've got another big wave coming very, very close. Which is going to be autonomous and agents. And then of course we'll get to AGI.”

“Everybody who's pushing for AGI level AI right now, they're going to be sorely disappointed. I think it's an asymptomatic curve, and I think we're going to end up with Waymo-style cars, meaning you almost have a lawyer, but not quite, and the five percent you …”

“With no false humility, I'm just not an operator by nature. I'm happy to do it, because I, like, really love OpenAI, and I think AGI will be the most important thing I ever touch, but this is not my natural fit.”

“Like Sam Altman doesn't care, but he doesn't care because he's not interested in actually just focusing on product as a business. Like he's trying to build AGI.”

“Let's say China or Russia had AGI today and the United States didn't, I would imagine they would use that to conquer.”

“I, 12 months ago, if I'd been on here, I would have told you, It's too late to build an AGI company, like that ship sailed, there's gonna be like three or four of them, they already exist. I now think the most ambitious founders today should seriously consider…”

“The real problem right now is every startup in the world is betting against AGI. Which I find really funny because all the funders are like, yeah, AGI is coming in the next five years. If it is, why are you funding these startup companies? Like none of them ar…”

“It's like, we're probably gonna be fine. AI is probably gonna change our lives and make it better. It's gonna improve productivity. Maybe AGI is gonna happen when you and I are like, 90, but I don't think AGI is happening like tomorrow.”

“At least like lately, or in the new OpenAI they're like a product company. They're like hardcore building a consumer product. That is their objective, and it's working. People love that product. It's, you know, a household name at this point. So I think in the…”

“And I am massively uncertain as to when this will happen, but a massive shift that I've undergone is I think this will probably happen in my lifetime. I think the answer to AGI has always been in academia, not in my lifetime. And the timeframe I give this righ…”

“The thing that frustrates me most, honestly speaking, is the degree of certainty that some people have about whether we will definitely get there very, very soon or even more on the flip side, that there's absolutely no way that we will ever achieve AGI with t…”

“I define AGI as a system that acts functionally equivalent to a close collaborator of yours over the course of about a year long project.”

“And so what irks me the most about a lot of people's sort of philosophy of AGI is that, to a certain extent, how little It seems like observable evidence has changed their beliefs one iota. You know, they had certain beliefs about what it would take to get to …”

“I believe the most responsible way to develop AGI is responsible iterative deployment. And the reason for that is I believe that as you're thinking about things like the societal impact access to this technology and the safety side of AGI as well, that the, Be…”

“In any one of those, you could probably make a very rational intellectual case that we're gonna hit a wall, but then you have the two others. And I don't think you can make the case for all three that they're all coming up on a wall. And I think like any big s…”

“You do not want to look back on that moment and not have given it everything you've got, because it's a race, and the latest five hundred million dollar round translates to us being able to be an entrant into the race.”

“Most startups are not racist. Most startups are against your, yourself. But AGI is a race, and so our view always has been, is that the team that we build is a team that is deeply passionate to be in that race”

“We're going to look back on this moment 10 years from now, just like we would look back to the moment of mobile, internet, and realize that that was the moment where the table got set.”

“At some point we are going to be in a world where across all sets of capabilities that we have as human beings, Machine intelligence is going to be as capable and if not more capable than us and surpass us. Now, our point of view is, is that that world is stil…”

“The people that tell these big visionary stories about how LLM companies or AGI is going to crush all of software, They're not actual business people. They're not actual builders, and they don't realize that businesses, consumers have real practical problems t…”

“It's a very convenient thing to say because AGI is very poorly defined, and so you can basically say that and pretty much claim it is correct.”

“I think that's absolutely true. And there's incentives. Incentives are not always nefarious. Sometimes it's just your view of the world is biased by the things that you want to believe.”

“I don't think we are in AGI in twenty-twenty-five, so I think that's an optimistic thought.”

“AGI for enterprises would be when I have an LLM that has the capabilities of a guy with an average IQ like a 120 points. But predictably. Not a 180 in some fancy math jobs and 60 into, you know, other type of job. Predictably. This is AGI.”

“When we achieve AGI or sort of like think about AGI, it will certainly involve You know, doing more economically valuable work, right? So when more and more and more of economically valuable work has been automated to some extent, you know, research has been a…”

“We did this bet and in the bet he has to win. I think it ends in 20, 27. So three things have to be true. We have to have a personal robot that cleans the whole house the way my cleaning team does. And it needs to be purchasable, like for reasonable amounts of…”

“And so I think as a result, like to me, AGI feels like it's here in a lot of ways, and even if we were to kind of say, hey, the capabilities that we have today are it, and it's not going to get any better, We are so early in bringing these capabilities to bear…”

“I believe that's gonna happen. Again, the big question is, is when is it gonna be? I don't think it's gonna be next five years. It's not going to be, maybe it's going to be next 10 years if you really see a broad adoption of these technologies, more likely may…”

“What I think is it will feel like AGI in twenty-twenty-six, and the really smart guys will agree we're there around twenty-twenty-eight.”

“It'll achieve open AGI whenever it suits Sam Altman in his negotiations with Microsoft over the open AGI term in that contract to declare it to be AGI. Because it's a meaningless, ill-defined term that will be used for economic leverage.”

“My comment is we're going to hit AGI when Microsoft and OpenAI litigate what OpenAGI is.”

“The reason I think they have no leverage is because I think that whatever AGI is, we're going to be there pretty soon.”

“I mean, I would say humans are AGI and we still invest in enterprise SaaS.”

“I think to be honest, Sam Altman, that's the definition of what AGI is. So whatever him and Microsoft decide is AGI will be AGI.”

“I think the hype around AGI is the most damaging and confusing.”

“I think when people are talking about building towards AGI like, I don't think this technology gets us there.”

“I don't think Sam Altman has done a service to the world by talking about how close AGI is.”

“I think that we are, I think there's a number of things that are over being overestimated. I think the most important one is the timeline.”

“Now, you know, where we're maybe getting a little bit ahead is thinking that just RL out of the box is gonna give us AGI. That part, a lot less so. You know, if you look at the curve of progress, RL is terribly inefficient, and so the amount of signal you need…”

“So this phantom AGI, someday with AI, they can do everything a human can do. I think we're very far away from that. I would say, you know, like decades away, maybe even longer.”

“I feel like because of PR goals, AGI has been hyped up as a finish line, but I don't think it's a finish line. It's just, we'll have continually improving capabilities for, you know, decades to come.”

“In a future where AGI exists, this person will recruit a marketing GPT, a software engineer GPT, a PM GPT, and get off the ground for a lot less capital. A million flowers will bloom. Lots and lots of non-technical founders will start companies.”

“It's innings one, and I believe in slow takeoff. I'm sorry to pour cold water on all the AI doomers that might be listening to this, but we are not in a rapid takeoff scenario. I believe in slow, steady takeoff for AGI and eventually super intelligence.”

“I think it's gotten to the point now where I think you should just coin it AGI and focus on optimizing the cost pretty much basically.”

“Second issue is a technical one, making sure These systems as they get more powerful, not today's systems, but maybe in a year or two's time when they become more agentic, more autonomous as we get towards AGI can they be kept on the guardrails that we want?”

“We'll find out maybe what consciousness is.”

“I mean, I think, look, I've got a probability distribution around the timings, but I would say there's a very good chance of it being within the next five years.”

“I sometimes quantify the coming of AGI as 10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed.”

“Well, I think on the positive side and the things obviously I've, I spent my whole career and life building towards AGI is, I think it will be the ultimate tool for science and medicine. So in terms of advancing scientific discovery finding cures to diseases, …”

“We used to do this extrapolation of compute and algorithmic progress, and basically we predicted around 20 years it would take from when we started out, and I think we're pretty much on track.”

“There's a fifty-fifty chance there's some things maybe missing that we still need to make breakthroughs in, perhaps their world models”

“We've always defined, we've been very consistent how we define AGI as basically a system that Exhibits all the cognitive capabilities the human mind has. And that's important because the brain is the only existence proof we have that we know of in, maybe in th…”

“I really believe the future will not be a few small number of AGI models dominating the world. I really believe the future will be, it may be scary, but I think that's true, it will be millions of specialized models, one per application, per use case.”

“The way I see it, simulation as a piece of technology is one of the twin pillars of technology. I'm a fan of science fiction. You read any advanced science fiction, there's always two pillars. One is some form of AGI that always shows up. The other is simulati…”

“We'll know what works because people will use it because people are rational and economic actors, right? And all these questions on AGI and benchmarks will be replaced by the question, is this model the one that makes me the most, you know, that generates the …”