Valuation

topic on 25 shows · 93 statements across 90 episodes

Acquired the Y Combinator Startup Podcast Founder's Journal Startup Acquisition Stories the Pitch More or Less BG2 Pod Innovators & Investors Startups For the Rest of Us We Live to Build American Optimist Latent Space My First Million the Neon Show the Official SaaStr Podcast the Startup Ideas Podcast WTF is with Nikhil Kamath A Product Market Fit Show Sourcery Capital Allocators Top Founders How I Built This the a16z Podcast All-In 20VC

The latest 60 statements about Valuation, every show

AMERICAN OPTIMIST Prediction Not checkable as stated
Melas-Kyriazi: Major Opportunity Ahead for AI-Automated Venture Valuations
“I think that there's going to be a lot of opportunity for innovation in, in automation around valuations, leveraging AI plus benchmarks, plus proprietary company data, as well as Public market comps and other.”
John Milles-Kiriazzi Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 27:05 How AI Agents are Changing Investing · Joe Lonsdale
TOP FOUNDERS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Spiegel: Glorified ChatGPT wrappers will face valuation reckoning and crash
“And so I do think we're going to see my guess is that we see a little bit of a reckoning on some of these crazy valuations on some of these companies that are again, just glorified chat GPT rappers. So I think we'll see a little bit of a crash on some of those…”
Matt Spiegel Feb 4, 2026 ▶ 25:29 How to Scale to $12M ARR: The Serial Founder Playbook for Vertical SaaS and Agentic AI
Mahr: Valuation matters far more for mature companies than new entrants
“Valuation is a lot more important for companies that have been around for a long time than a brand new entrant to the public markets.”
Daniel Mahr Nov 20, 2025 ▶ 20:54 Daniel Mahr – Glass Box Quant at MDT Advisers (EP.472)
a16z Insight
Polovets: Return multiples fall significantly after startups establish proof points
“Once they get good, the valuation skyrocket so fast that like you could still get good multiples, but they're just much lower than it, you know, early stages.”
Leo Polovets Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 3:08 Is Non-Consensus Investing Overrated?
WTF Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI startup valuations will most likely collapse
“I do think we will see a collapse in valuations. Most likely. You can't never be certain.”
Vinod Khosla Aug 2, 2025 ▶ 1:16:21 Vinod Khosla: College Degrees Are Becoming Useless | People by WTF | Episode 12 · Nikhil Kamath
Growth deals stall on exit and control terms, not valuation
“It's the tough conversations happen a little bit late, and those tough conversations are about exit, and they're about control, and they're not often about valuation. Those conversations get solved really quickly, and folks think, oh, we're done. We've got our…”
Anastasia Slivker Jul 18, 2025 ▶ 7:35 Navigating the Complexities of Venture and Growth Equity Deals: Insights from Norton Rose Fulbright
INNOVATORS & INVESTORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dye: Top-tier AI deal valuations have returned to 2021 peak levels
“The really strong deals your A deals in the market are really competitive right now. And so, you know, valuations are back to in some cases where we were in kind of 20, 21, 22. And so those are just, those aren't a great fit for us either.”
AJ Dye Jun 25, 2025 ▶ 16:10 Bridging Investment and Operations: AJ Dye on Scaling Tech with Vertex Innovations and Unifi Ventures
Vaidya: AI company valuations are quite high relative to actual delivery
“Companies that have the word AI attached to them, their valuations are I don't want to use superlatives, but the valuations are quite high, right, from a multiple perspective, from what they're delivering.”
Ash Vaidya Jun 18, 2025 ▶ 25:18 Navigating Venture Debt: Startup Insights from Multiplier Capital
NEON SHOW Insight
Bhagia: Valuation and dilution are founders' top priority over investor brand
“The number one thing for founders, right? No matter what your brand is, how much value you have, whatever you do, the valuation matters, what price you're giving them money at, how much ownership you're taking. That is the first priority for them. Everything e…”
Kushal Bhagia May 16, 2025 ▶ 30:20 What's Happening To VC In India w/ All In Capital, Peer Capital & Upekkha
SOURCERY Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: Certain VC funds use high valuations as a lever to win
“There are definitely certain funds that come to mind that I won't name who have decided the strategy that they're going to employ is to use valuation as a lever to win.”
Bucky Moore May 5, 2025 ▶ 29:43 Why Bucky Moore Joined $30 Billion AUM Megafund Lightspeed · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Grossman: $10M ARR software companies are valued 4-5x higher than $5M companies
“A five million dollar ARR software company that's growing at 25% a year versus a ten million dollar ARR software company growing at 25% a year. The ten million dollar company is probably going to be valued at four or five times what the five million ARR is bec…”
Kevin Grossman Mar 27, 2025 ▶ 3:41 35 - Navigating Non-Dilutive Capital: Insights with Decathlon Capital's Kevin Grossman
20VC Insight
Singlehurst: Investor discipline means selectively paying high prices for breakout companies
“Like being a disciplined investor doesn't mean I will never pay more than X multiple, because when you find a really special company, you should lean into valuation. Now, the danger is that you can tell yourself a story that every company is a special company,…”
Peter Singlehurst Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 16:09 Peter Singlehurst: Lessons from Turning Down Stripe, Coinbase and Losing Money on Northvalt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
THE PITCH Insight
Elizabeth Yin: Founders should set terms individually and raise valuations progressively
“I also think you should not wait for a lead. And you should just set terms and pull people in like one-on-one. Increase the valuation as you go along. Because as you need money less, you can increase that valuation.”
Elizabeth Yin Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 16:42 #111 Stigma: Whose Business Is It Anyway?
THE PITCH Insight
Hudson: Pricing a startup unrealistically low is as dangerous as overpricing
“Being anchored on a price that's unrealistically low can be just as dangerous to a business as being anchored on a price that's too high.”
Charles Hudson Mar 3, 2025 ▶ 18:51 #69 When Less Is Not More
SAASTR Assertion Supported
Scrase: Top-quartile SaaS firms have 3x shorter payback and 7x higher valuation
“Also, if you think about payback period, if you look at top quartile SaaS companies versus bottom quartile, top quartile have three X shorter payback period than the bottom quartile and seven X higher valuation.”
Lindsey Scrase Feb 12, 2025 ▶ 16:30 The Playbook for Going Upmarket with Stripe's CBO and Checkr's COO
STARTUP IDEAS Assertion Contradicted
Al-Abdullah: Every 3% increase in net revenue retention doubles company valuation
“Every three percent increase in net revenue retention doubles the company's valuation.”
Ayman Al-Abdullah Feb 10, 2025 ▶ 16:44 The Step-by-Step Plan to Go From $0 to $10M+
Vollset: High valuations force VC control terms that block moderate exits
“If you push valuations as high as possible, investors are going to put control provisions in there that sort of says, okay, look, the reason why we're giving you this high valuation is because you're saying you're gunning for this enormous outcome. So we're go…”
Einar Vollset Jan 14, 2025 ▶ 26:55 Episode 748 | The Ins and Outs of Startup Investing
20VC Insight
Goldberg: Inflated valuations hurt employee morale and company performance
“When the employees know that the valuation isn't realistic, I think really hurts the morale and hurts the ability of the company to kind of do its best work.”
Mark Goldberg Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 38:56 Mark Goldberg: Why Politics is Rife & Decision-Making is Broken in Large VCs | E1219 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
SAASTR Assertion Contradicted
Tunguz: Series A ticket size valuations increased 42% over two years
“In fact, valuations at Series A ticket sizes have increased 42% in the last two years.”
Tomasz Tunguz Oct 24, 2024 ▶ 8:19 The State of SaaS Go-to-Market l Theory Ventures General Partner Tomasz Tunguz #saas #b2bsaas
SAASTR Assertion Supported
Tunguz: Founders expect valuations to match 2022 and 2023 levels
“They expect their valuations to be the same as in 2023 and the same as in 2022.”
Tomasz Tunguz Oct 24, 2024 ▶ 11:50 The State of SaaS Go-to-Market l Theory Ventures General Partner Tomasz Tunguz #saas #b2bsaas
SOURCERY Assertion Supported
AI startups with $5M revenue are raising at $700M valuations
“Now we're seeing companies, you know, five million revenue in AI revenue, and they're raising at five, six, seven hundred million valuation. That's price to perfection, right? We're talking about a hundred X multiple sometimes in these cases.”
Alex Kolicich Oct 11, 2024 ▶ 4:48 Alex Kolicich, 8VC | AI & Defense Tech Renaissance · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
20VC Insight
Gurski: $10B valuation requires $600M revenue with profitable growth
“If you want to cost ten billion, we probably should achieve six hundred million in revenue and then show profitability and continue growing with the same pace.”
Dmitry Gurski Sep 23, 2024 ▶ 1:01:45 Dmitry Gurski: From Potato Farm to $200M in Revenue: The Never-Before-Told Story of Flo Health|E1205 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Mahlum: SolidCore's 2017 minority private equity deal valued company near $60M
“The valuation was, like, close to sixty million.”
Anne Mahlum Sep 18, 2024 ▶ 32:25 From Nonprofit Founder To Building A $300M Pilates Business
20VC Insight
Siroker: Asking for the highest valuation is almost certainly a mistake
“Always saying the highest price is almost certainly going to be a mistake.”
Dan Siroker May 15, 2024 ▶ 37:42 Dan Siroker: Second-Time Founders Are More Investable & Why Not To Hire People Out of College |E1153 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Siroker: VCs ask round size to implicitly negotiate valuation at 20% dilution
“When an investor asks, how much are you raising? More often than not, they're actually asking, how much do you think you're worth? Let's start the negotiation on valuation right now, because a 20% is what they want.”
Dan Siroker May 15, 2024 ▶ 0:06 Dan Siroker: Second-Time Founders Are More Investable & Why Not To Hire People Out of College |E1153 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Insight
Siroker: Founders should concede on valuation in term sheet negotiations
“I think it's fair to give on valuation.”
Dan Siroker May 15, 2024 ▶ 32:46 Dan Siroker: Second-Time Founders Are More Investable & Why Not To Hire People Out of College |E1153 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
SOURCERY Insight
Housel: Valuations equal today's numbers multiplied by tomorrow's story
“Every company's valuation, whether it's a startup or a public company or even a bond, is a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow.”
Morgan Housel Apr 7, 2024 ▶ 35:32 Morgan Housel: Understanding Elon Musk, Jensen Huang and Other Outliers in Tech · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Pompliano: Crypto exits should be timed by market cycle, not valuation
“My theory in crypto now is selling is less to do with price levels. Like in the public markets, people will hold a stock and they're like, okay, if this ever gets overvalued, I'm selling, I'm trimming the position. In crypto, it's much more cyclical. And so I …”
Anthony Pompliano Mar 27, 2024 ▶ 1:12:02 The Man Who Owns 1% Of ALL Bitcoin
Julia Hartz says Reddit's IPO valuation is justified by real-life community demand
“I'm not surprised that Reddit's going out at the valuation they're going out at, because I see it play out in real life in a way that's absolutely skyrocketing.”
Julia Hartz Mar 15, 2024 ▶ 36:36 #38: Hartz and Minds and TikTok w/ Special Guest Julia Hartz · More or Less Podcast
Gazdecki: If you have one buyer you have no buyers
“If you have one buyer, you have no buyers and it gets very fascinating. And this is how you increase valuation or get better terms is you have multiple buyers cause you have leverage.”
Andrew Gazdecki Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 19:32 This Founder Sold His Startup, Bought it Back for Pennies, and Resold it on Acquire.com for 5 Figures
Greg Isenberg: Founders Should Prioritize Cash Flow Over VC Valuations
“Cash flow over valuation any day of the week. What I mean by that is, who cares if a venture fund is going to say your business is worth a billion dollars? It feels nice. But building cash flowing businesses is ultimately a huge reward from a financial standpo…”
Greg Isenberg Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 13:36 50 Realizations That Changed My Life
20VC Insight
Fishner-Wolfson: Valuation price only matters in VC when off by 5x
“I think this is an interesting question because my answer is oftentimes price doesn't matter unless you're off by five X, in which case then price is the only thing that matters.”
Justin Fishner-Wolfson Feb 9, 2024 ▶ 16:38 20VC: Doug Leone, Bill Ackman, Bill Gurley and Orlando Bravo on "Does Price Matter"; When to Pay Up vs When to Stay Disciplined, The Biggest Lessons on Price Discipline from 8 of the World's Best Investors
Hsu: Higher valuation for the same quality company is always worse
“Higher valuation, given the same company quality, is always worse.”
David Hsu Feb 7, 2024 ▶ 12:44 The State of AI in production — with David Hsu of Retool
BG2 Insight
Gurley: Founders Must Confront Real Valuations Immediately to Survive
“I think the number one thing a founder can do is to as quickly as possible, get in touch with your, with what your real actual valuation is. And then ask yourself, what do I need to do structurally to give this company a fighting chance, knowing that that's re…”
Bill Gurley Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 39:45 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Lieberman: During downturns, only valuations drop while users and usage grow
“Second, the only thing that typically goes down during downturns are valuations. Typically, users, usage, and dollars spent actually go up.”
Alex Lieberman Jan 24, 2024 ▶ 10:50 25 Lessons in 25 Years
Housel: Asset Valuation Equals Today's Number Multiplied by Tomorrow's Story
“Every market valuation for any stock, public company, private company, even bond, is a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow. That's the basic mechanism of valuation. A number from today, like earnings per share, and a story about tomorrow, wh…”
Morgan Housel Jan 1, 2024 ▶ 19:21 Morgan Housel – Same as Ever (EP.359)
Srugo: Valuing pre-revenue seed startups is purely a battle of wills
“When you are valuing what is effectively still a seed stage company with no revenue and just an idea, what's it worth? How do you defend evaluation? You don't. And so this entire negotiation Was based on nothing. There's nothing to negotiate, nothing to give a…”
Pablo Srugo Dec 4, 2023 ▶ 10:02 I Was Supposed to Be a Millionaire at 25… Instead, I Went Bankrupt. · PMF Show
SAASTR Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Reopened IPO Market Will Not Broadly Inflate Startup Valuations
“It's going to create more appetite for VCs to do deals, but only at the margin will it increase valuations. Only at the margin. Only where there's like hysteria to invest, like certain AI deals. But other than that, unless there's massive competition, valuatio…”
Jason Lemkin Oct 27, 2023 ▶ 38:53 How to Navigate Strategic Change for Growth with SaaStr CEO and Founder, Jason Lemkin
SAASTR Assertion Partly supported
Specht: Startup Valuations Have Returned to 2020 Baseline Levels
“But the interesting aspect actually is, when looking at this chart, as valuations actually have just gotten back to the levels they were in, in 2020.”
Peter Specht Jul 27, 2023 ▶ 0:01 Raising Capital in 2023: What You Really Need To Know with Creandum Partner Peter Specht
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mohnot: A severe startup valuation drop is coming due to market overhang
“I think there's this overhang of valuations and we haven't yet seen the drop that is going to come and it's going to be so severe.”
Sheel Mohnot Jul 17, 2023 ▶ 1:12:51 Sheel Mohnot: How I Got Married in the Metaverse; Founder vs Product vs Market | E1035 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Simkhai: Startup valuations and headcount are vanity metrics
“And I think one of the ways that founders get caught up in validation is with Valuations. Valuations, headcount. And to me, those were vanity metrics. Those were not metrics that were important. The only metric that was really important to me was my daily acti…”
Joel Simkhai Jul 17, 2023 ▶ 50:11 Grindr: Joel Simkhai
ACQUISITION STORIES Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gazdecki: Valuation misalignment is the top reason startups fail to sell
“Valuation is the number one reason you don't sell. Or get buyer traction on acquire just because the gap between, you know, the seller's expectations and the buyer, it's just too far off to close.”
Andrew Gazdecki Jun 27, 2023 ▶ 27:04 Startup Acquisition Stories with Kjael Skaalerud, President of Skaling Ventures
Walling: Non-Subscription Revenue Applies a Valuation Discount on Exit
“And when you go to sell this, if it is not subscription revenue and the numbers go up and down each month, it is a discount to your valuation.”
Rob Walling Jun 6, 2023 ▶ 11:48 Episode 664 | The Challenges of Horizontal SaaS, Adding Services...
Lasry: Sports franchise valuations require media rights to double or triple every decade
“And for them to keep going, you needed to keep doubling and tripling your media rights every seven, 10 years. So I just thought it was the right time, and it's bittersweet.”
Marc Lasry May 15, 2023 ▶ 32:05 Marc Lasry – Avenues of Opportunity (Capital Allocators, EP.315)
Smith: Investors subconsciously anchor on valuation before even starting formal fundamental research
“One of the really key things we've learned is that the decision to pursue work on a particular company is usually done with an idea of what you think the valuation is before you've done the valuation.”
Colin Smith Nov 7, 2022 ▶ 46:38 Colin Smith and Farouk Miah - Empty Rooms: Investing in Africa (Capital Allocators, EP. 279)
20VC Insight
Gerstner: Interest rates dictate valuations like gravity affects physical objects
“Interest rates are to valuations, you know, what gravity is to the apple.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 27:04 Brad Gerstner: How I Pick Companies; Lessons from Warren Buffet; Chamath vs Gurley | E935 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gave: Deglobalization will drive higher inflation, lower margins, and lower valuations
“There's no doubt we are deglobalizing. The obvious impact is higher inflation. It's higher inflation, it's lower margins, higher structural interest rates, which makes for lower valuations.”
Louis-Vincent Gave Oct 10, 2022 ▶ 31:30 Louis-Vincent Gave – The Case for Emerging Markets (Capital Allocators, EP.275)
ACQUISITION STORIES Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gazdecki: Many 2021-era startups will never grow into their valuations
“A lot of startups over the past year just raised at too high of a valuation. They're never going to be able to grow into it.”
Andrew Gazdecki Sep 13, 2022 ▶ 18:17 Startup Acquisition Stories with Colin Keeley, Founder at Verne (Acquire'd 2x)
Dunn: Realistic Valuations in Downturns Benefit Founders Long-Term
“And by the way, the valuations get more realistic too. And I think that's a good thing for entrepreneurs in the long run, although they don't view it as such in real time.”
Andy Dunn Sep 8, 2022 ▶ 42:34 Investing in Mental Health & Embracing Vulnerability with Andy Dunn
20VC Insight
Rabois: Entry valuation does not matter in early-stage venture capital
“The price in value, the price in valuation just doesn't matter in traditional ventures, even series A.”
Keith Rabois May 30, 2022 ▶ 37:57 Keith Rabois: The End of Woke Capitalism; Time Allocation Tips; Silicon Valley vs Miami | 20VC #891 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
ALL-IN Prediction Held up
Chamath: Late-stage startup valuations face 30% to 70% correction
“All these late stage companies are mispriced. It doesn't matter whether you're the bottom decile or the top decile, you are massively mispriced and there needs to be some correction between 30 and 70% on valuation.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 13, 2022 ▶ 54:57 E80: Recession deep dive: VC psychology, macro risks, Tiger Global, predictions and more
Huthmeyer: Micro-SaaS acquisition targets are currently overvalued
“Spent a lot of time, quite frankly, so far valuations are really high. So I wanna, you know, it doesn't help me to buy something that's overvalued.”
Norbert Huthmeyer May 8, 2022 ▶ 11:33 Hacker Buys a SaaS Project for $7,500, Now Does $120,000 in Revenue
SAASTR Prediction Held up
Pepper: SaaS Valuations Will Fall in 2-4 Quarters as Founders Need Capital
“I think it's going to take two, three, four quarters. For those companies that raised in early or mid 20, 21 to need to come back and there will come a time where they need capital and the pendulum will swing from, you know, purely power on the part of founder…”
Doug Pepper May 6, 2022 ▶ 21:31 Doug Pepper, GP at Iconiq + Jason Lemkin of SaaStr: "Where Venture Is Right Now"
20VC Disclosure
Cillufo: QED's biggest investment misses resulted from balking at high valuations
“Our biggest misses have been on this question of valuation. Love the team, love the business, love the opportunity, have a great relationship, feel like this is going to work, and then we just sort of balk at the price.”
Bill Cillufo Apr 22, 2022 ▶ 23:46 20VC: How Today's Market Changes How Companies Should Approach Burn and Runway, Are Financing Markets Closing? How To Know When To Pay Up vs Stay Price Disciplined & Why The Most Important Thing in Venture is Generating Positive Selection with Bill Cilluf
ACQUISITION STORIES Prediction Held up
Crennan predicted in April 2022 that tech valuations would contract
“And so I think over the next 12 months or 20, 22, I think we're going to see some really bubbly valuations that we've had start to contract down again.”
James Crennan Apr 4, 2022 ▶ 23:05 Startup Acquisition Stories with James Crennan - General Partner at Xenon Partners
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grinda: Early-stage venture median valuations have not increased much
“Now, what's interesting is in the earlier stages, the mean has gone up, but the median has not gone up all that much.”
Fabrice Grinda Jan 24, 2022 ▶ 1:03:22 Fabrice Grinda – Canvassing Seed Stage Marketplaces at FJ Labs, Venture is Eating the Investment World 4 (Capital Allocators, EP.232)
Founders use venture debt to boost valuations ahead of future equity rounds
“So essentially what you are doing is you are leveraging the dollars that you bring in as a founder to unlock Even more capital to bring you nearer term value such that when you need to go out to market again, you incorporate that value into your valuation, for…”
Paul Ong Dec 1, 2021 ▶ 18:34 300 Portfolio Companies Later, 22 Became Unicorns Without Diluting
SAASTR Assertion Partly supported
Nottebohm: 60%+ growth at $100M ARR yields 5x higher valuation
“Companies who are growing at over 60% as they hit a hundred million in ARR are valued five times more than companies that are growing just a little less than that. Say at 20 to 60% as they hit a hundred million ARR.”
Olivia Nottebohm Oct 20, 2021 ▶ 1:20 How Community-Led Growth Drives Product-Led Growth with Notion CRO, Olivia Nottebohm
ACQUIRED Insight
Mauboussin: Strategy and Valuation Must Be Integrated to Evaluate Businesses
“You have to combine these two things to understand a business and to do evaluation properly. So in other words, the litmus test of a strategy is that it creates value. And you really can't understand or value a business until you understand the competitive sit…”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 9:15 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
TOP FOUNDERS Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2020
QuantHub raised its 2020 priced round at an $8M pre-money valuation
“We raised it an eight million dollar pre.”
Matt Cowell Sep 26, 2021 ▶ 10:25 Quanthub Helps you Hire Engineers, Raised $2m on $8m Valuation, On Track to Break $1m ARR

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