Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from Startups For the Rest of Us: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

1,379 insights679 assertions491 disclosures247 opinions127 predictions29 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Opinion
Venture capital only profits due to 1960s tax lobbying by the wealthy
“Venture capital is essentially an asset class that only makes money because rich people in the sixties and seventies lobbied the federal government to get capital gains tax rate applied to this certain type of investing, right?”
Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 17:11 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Intercom Defines AI Support Resolutions Differently Than 98% of the Market
“The way Intercom, for instance, defines an AI resolution is not the way 98% of the market actually defines an AI resolution.”
Nick Francis Jun 30, 2026 ▶ 28:33 Episode 839 | The Journey Growing Help Scout to $35M ARR
Opinion
Ries: LLMs degrade actual capabilities and magnify the Dunning-Kruger effect
“The number one biggest finding, I think, for a use of LLMs is that LLMs cause the Dunning-Kruger effect to be magnified. They convince you that you're more capable than you are at while they degrade your actual capabilities.”
Eric Ries May 26, 2026 ▶ 16:57 Episode 834 | Eric Ries Revisits The Lean Startup and Discusses H...
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Vollset predicts Anthropic will inevitably add advertisements to Claude
“Not only are they going to do it, but so is Claude. I guarantee it. You know, they might figure out something clever and do the thing, but like, there's no, there's just not a universe unless Claude get bought by Apple or something. That, that Claude aren't go…”
Einar Vollset Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 29:14 Episode 823 | Hot Take Tuesday: Is A.I. Killing B2B SaaS?, ChatGP...
Opinion
Building a social media audience is terrible advice for SaaS founders.
“There are folks out there who say, if you want to start a SaaS, just build an audience on social media. And that is some of the worst advice that I hear in our space. Don't get me wrong, an audience is helpful. It really is. But it's not worth the time that it…”
Rob Walling Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 24:35 Episode 800 | The 12 Commandments of Startups for the Rest of Us
Opinion
Vollset: Windsurf Deal Was a Massive Founder Payday Structured to Screw Employees
“The original deal, which was like a successful, holy crap, that's a big number deal was three billion. The Google aqua hire is 2.4. That's ballpark same number. So like, you got screwed as if this was a soft landing for the founders, but it was a massive payda…”
Einar Vollset Sep 2, 2025 ▶ 31:47 Episode 792 | Hot Take Tuesday: GPT-5 Struggles, the A.I. Bubble,...

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Moz is acquired by iContact
“Literally, 33 minutes ago, the story broke that Moz was acquired by iContact.”
Rob Walling Jun 8, 2021 ▶ 12:19 553: Stack Overflow and Moz Acquired, Quitting Instead of Giving Up Remote Work, and More
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Walling: Stripe will go public in 2025
“My third prediction carried over from last year is that Stripe will go public in 2025.”
Rob Walling Dec 31, 2024 ▶ 2:56 Episode 746 | 9 Startup Predictions for 2025
Prediction Held up
The AI Venture Capital Bubble Will Not Burst in 2026
“Prediction number four is that the AI VC bubble will not burst in 2026. Massive investment will continue without a dramatic crash.”
Rob Walling Dec 30, 2025 ▶ 21:04 Episode 813 | SaaS Predictions for 2026 (+ Reflections on 2025)
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Walling: Google will see its biggest revenue drop ever due to AI
“So my sixth prediction is that Google will see its biggest ever drop in revenue Due to the transition from 10 blue links being the prominent way people search into AI ads, and I think Google's gonna have a bit of time that they're gonna need to figure it out”
Rob Walling Dec 31, 2024 ▶ 8:11 Episode 746 | 9 Startup Predictions for 2025

Open predictions the full timeline →

109days Open-Source AI Model Usage Will Double to 40% by Late 2026 Rob Walling · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days AI Firms Seeking Revenue Growth Will Drive SaaS M&A in 2026 Rob Walling · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Bitcoin Will Hit a New All-Time High of $160,000 in 2026 Rob Walling · prediction date: 2026-12-31 109days Stripe Will Remain a Private Company Throughout 2026 Rob Walling · prediction date: 2026-12-31

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Eric Ries 1 10 3 0 0 100%
Laura Roeder 2 16 3 0 0 100%
Asia Orangio 2 11 6 0 1 86%
Einar Vollset 19 135 17 2 2 81%
Tracy Osborn 17 35 4 1 0 80%
Jeff Roberts 1 13 3 1 0 75%
Craig Hewitt 7 36 2 1 0 67%
Ian Landsman 1 15 2 1 0 67%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“Like, the real SaaS-pocalypse is the big companies, the big incumbents. They're the ones who have raised their prices so much, maybe a little too much, Because they have to grow every quarter for Wall…”

“my rule of thumb is about 300 a month is the minimum for a one call close, and somewhere around, what is it, about It's about 800 a month. It's about 10 K ACV is my minimum for thinking about cold and…”

“The secret of SAS, per seat SAS particularly, is that 20% of those seats shouldn't be paying for anything because they're not even using the tool, right?”

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