The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Rob Walling (8)Einar Vollset (4)Eric Ries (2)Tracy Osborn (1)Mike Taber (1)Derek Coburn (1)
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Next up (8)
109 days left 2026-12-31
Open-Source AI Model Usage Will Double to 40% by Late 2026
“My fifth prediction is that open source AI models Will double in global usage driven by cost control and platform risk. So as of now, a working paper summarized in IT Pro says closed models are about 80% of overall usage, implying that open is about 20%, and I…”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
460 days left 2027-12-17
460 days left 2027-12-17
Osborn predicts Bluesky will grow and achieve lasting traction within three years
“I would bet so. Like I could be wrong, but it feels like in terms of the herd instinct of folks and the herd instinct of tech press and whatnot, there's more now than there was when Mastodon and Threads and everything else launched a few years ago, including B…”
474 days left 2027-12-31
1065 days left 2029-08-13
Walling: AI will not eliminate the need for software developers by 2034
“They were talking about learning to code, and how everyone's going to be able to code because of ChatGPT, and developers won't be needed anymore, and I just don't believe that's the case at all. I mean, we've seen the same thing with no code. It's like, you ca…”
Closed calls (26) the full record →
Jeff Roberts predicts Stripe will eventually launch a Merchant of Record solution
“And I think it's even telling that Stripe has not prioritized their own merchant of record solution, at least at this point. I suspect they will at some point.”
Walling: Congress will repeal the Section 174 R&D tax changes
“What I'm hearing a lot of people say is that their accounts are telling them to basically file an extension and wait and see if this gets rolled back. Repealed, which I think it will.”
The AI Venture Capital Bubble Will Not Burst in 2026
“Prediction number four is that the AI VC bubble will not burst in 2026. Massive investment will continue without a dramatic crash.”
Hewitt: Spotify will launch a walled-garden podcast subscription tool
“And Spotify certainly will come out with their own version of this at some point, and it will be the same, right? It will be, this is in its own walled garden. It doesn't talk to anything else. It certainly wouldn't integrate with your membership platform.”
Instagram's 1.9% organic engagement rate will significantly decline by 2026
“Instagram is the highest of the organic engagement channels today, organic social networks, and I think it's hovering on average around 1.9%. I wouldn't expect that to last five years.”
Walling Predicts Freelance and Gig Workers Will Hit Record Highs
“Number one, I think there are going to be more freelance and more gig workers than there ever have been, and I think part of that is due to the economy.”
Walling: Stripe will go public in 2025
“My third prediction carried over from last year is that Stripe will go public in 2025.”
Walling: Google will see its biggest revenue drop ever due to AI
“So my sixth prediction is that Google will see its biggest ever drop in revenue Due to the transition from 10 blue links being the prominent way people search into AI ads, and I think Google's gonna have a bit of time that they're gonna need to figure it out”
Walling: Twitter will change hands in 2025
“My first is that Twitter will change hands in twenty-twenty-five. I think either the debt's gonna be called due, someone's gonna do a hostile takeover. The valuation is so low, I just think it is inevitable that Twitter will change hands here at some point, an…”
Walling: Google organic SEO traffic will drop 15% to 25% in 2025
“So my fourth prediction for 2025 and the first new one is that search volume For Google organic SEO, and I'm talking about content-based keyword targeting, where you're cranking out an essay, an ultimate guide, a blog post, I think they will slide across the b…”
Walling: Ads in AI chat interfaces will become commonplace
“My fifth prediction is that ads in AI chat interfaces like ChatGPT or Claude or, you know, whatever other chat interface you use will become commonplace because this is the next frontier.”
Walling: TinySeed will exceed 200 portfolio companies within two years
“By, in the next two years, we will be over 200.”
Walling: Twitter will be acquired at a deep discount in 2024
“The second prediction I want to touch on is I predicted that Twitter changes hands in twenty-twenty-four, question mark? And I don't know about you, but does it feel like the writing's on the wall? That Twitter is gonna be snapped up by someone at a deep disco…”
Walling: Twitter (X) will change ownership in 2024
“I think that Twitter might change hands again in 20, 24. That is probably the ultimate prediction.”
Walling predicts Stripe will finally go public in 2024
“My seventh and final prediction for twenty-twenty-four, I have no inside information. I think Stripe's going to finally go public.”
Walling predicts Apple will reject a fully remote work model
“You know, I don't think Apple's going remote with the big saucer, flying saucer campus there, and what are they going to do when they come back?”
Vollset: Stock market will not be worse off by June 2023
“I don't think the stock market will be worse off.”
Gal predicts Drip will target high-end enterprise sales after Leadpages sale
“I'm going to assume they're going to go high end with an enterprise sales team and run that playbook, and now they have the money to do it, and they didn't need to sell any equity in it.”
Vollset: Clubhouse will survive at least 18 months due to VC funding
“18 months. That's a lifetime. I still think they're around. They raised so much money. I mean, I think they raised, didn't they raise like a hundred million or something insane? So I still think they're, they'll be around. Yeah, I do.”
Volset: COVID-19 lockdowns will not last 18 months to two years
“Realistically, it's not like we're going to be in lockdown for 18 months to two years. Like, that doesn't, that just won't happen. Like, there are too many things that are likely to work out in one way, shape, or form.”
Taber predicts definitive proof of extraterrestrial life will be discovered
“My fifth and final prediction here is that we will discover definitive proof of extraterrestrial life. I don't know what exact form that's going to take, whether it's going to be Mars or some comment or, you know, an asteroid going by, but that's the predictio…”
Taber: Regulators will attempt to break up Big Tech, likely targeting Facebook
“There's going to be a over attempt by a government and I'm going to, you know, kind of lump a couple of them together, like the United States, either the United States federal government, the European union, or even maybe even, I doubt a state government would…”
Taber: Governments will pass new legislation cracking down on gig economy in 2021
“Governments are going to actively crack down on the gig economy and essentially people who are doing side jobs or they're stringing together multiple side jobs in order to either make a living or make extra money on the side, those type of people I think the g…”