Rand Fishkin

Co-founder & CEO, SparkToro · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderexecutiveauthor@randfish ↗LinkedIn ↗sparktoro.com ↗

Rand Fishkin is the co-founder and former CEO of search marketing software company Moz and the current co-founder and CEO of SparkToro. He is the author of the startup memoir Lost and Founder and co-author of The Art of SEO.

15statements → 9claims → 4claims resolved → 50%fully supported → 3.67/5average certainty → 2.33/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 74said about them ↓

2 supported 1 partly supported 1 contradicted 2 not yet assessed 3 not checkable as stated how the 9 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 predictions · 7 assertions · 3 opinions · 1 insight · 1 disclosure · 1 what if · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 9 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 4 are resolved, 2 are not yet assessed, and 3 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Rand argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Moz's revenue growth sank significantly after Rand Fishkin stepped down

“After I stepped down as CEO, the growth rate sank significantly. It was trending a little bit down, like, the last six months I was there, so I wouldn't put the fault entirely on folks after I left, but, you know, the last, oh my gosh, the last seven years cer…”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 11:40 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted

Average Facebook organic impression rate fell to 0.09% by early 2021

“Today, the average, average impression rate for an organic update on Facebook is 0.09%.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 46:36 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1

none yet certainty 2

100% certainty 3

50% certainty 4

none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Rand Fishkin on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

What they said15 What others said74 Episodes1

Everything Rand Fishkin said on Startups For the Rest of Us that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion

Venture capital only profits due to 1960s tax lobbying by the wealthy

“Venture capital is essentially an asset class that only makes money because rich people in the sixties and seventies lobbied the federal government to get capital gains tax rate applied to this certain type of investing, right?”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 17:11 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Opinion

Investors avoiding dividend taxes are poor citizens and unwelcome at SparkToro

“If giving the government 12 to 20% of your money is unacceptable to you, first of all, I don't think you're a very good civic person. Right? Like, and second, I don't want you on my balance sheet anyway.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 41:12 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Fishkin: Roughly 90% of venture-backed startup founders come from family wealth

“Like the whole idea behind venture capital is we are going to take a bunch of mostly already wealthy people because that's who starts venture backed startups, right? The overwhelming majority, I think something like 90% come from family wealth.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 17:50 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Insight

A/B testing is harmful unless statistical significance is reached within 36 hours

“I think A-B testing and conversion rate testing in general is great when you have between tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands or more visitors to a page and enough of them are converting that you can basically test in 12 to 36 hours. Anything under tha…”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 30:50 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Prediction Not checkable as stated

TikTok organic reach will inevitably crash to near zero, mimicking Facebook

“And I think, unfortunately, a lot of these folks are going to find that the same thing that happened with Facebook seven years ago, six years ago, where that engagement rate falls from 11% to 0.09%, that will happen. That will happen to you.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 51:09 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Assertion Supported

Moz's revenue growth sank significantly after Rand Fishkin stepped down

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 11:40 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Opinion

Fishkin: About 20% of VC investments get stuck in growth purgatory

“Out of those, you know, average hundred investments that VCs make, the stuck in the middle is a really significant percentage. It's probably like 20 of those hundred, and a lot of those end up being some combination of, like, fire sales, or for more aggressive…”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 13:35 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

What-if

Fishkin says he should have left Moz after one year

“In retrospect, I would have left after a year, and I should have.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 10:56 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Assertion Contradicted

Average Facebook organic impression rate fell to 0.09% by early 2021

“Today, the average, average impression rate for an organic update on Facebook is 0.09%.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 46:36 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Prediction Held up

Instagram's 1.9% organic engagement rate will significantly decline by 2026

“Instagram is the highest of the organic engagement channels today, organic social networks, and I think it's hovering on average around 1.9%. I wouldn't expect that to last five years.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 51:45 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Disclosure

Fishkin: 'Lost and Founder' has sold around 25,000 to 30,000 copies

“Lost in Founder, I think they hoped might be that. And, Ended up not being that. It did not end up being like a New York Times bestseller, all that kind of stuff. It's had slow, steady sales. I think it's sold around maybe 25, 30,000 copies, which is decent fo…”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 3:33 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Assertion Not publicly verifiable

Fishkin: 4 to 5 startups raised funding using SparkToro's terms

“Four or five other companies, not funds, but individual startups have also used SparkToro's model to raise money themselves and use those open source documents.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 19:36 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Assertion Not checkable as stated

SparkToro emails saw 18% bounce rates in spring 2020 due to layoffs

“I think at the height, almost 17 or 18% were bouncing, and it was not a, this email address doesn't exist anymore, it was so-and-so doesn't work here anymore.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 26:21 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Assertion Partly supported

SparkToro reached profitability at $40,000 monthly recurring revenue in September 2020

“We basically, we are profitable at right around 40,000 dollars a month, and we hit that in, like I said, the end of September of last year, and we've been growing a little bit ever since.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 32:08 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

Assertion Not publicly verifiable

SparkToro reached 30,000 free users and over 500 paid subscribers by 2021

“In terms of users, we've got about 30,000 free users, a little over 500 paid subscribers.”

Rand Fishkin Feb 23, 2021 ▶ 32:30 Episode 537 | On Launching, Funding, and Growth with Serial SaaS Founder Rand Fishkin

The other half of the tape: Rand Fishkin's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 68 times in 27 episodes on Startups For the Rest of Us. 6 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Rob Walling 42 John Warrillow 10 Tracy Osborn 8 Ruben Gamez 4 Colin Netterkorn 2 Dan Norris 1 Arvid Kahl 1

Statements about Rand Fishkin, by other people (6)

Assertion Supported

Gomez: Moz failed after investing heavily to expand into a marketing suite

“Moz, their thing was like, they're, they were gonna be a marketing suite. They weren't gonna be a suite for SEO, they were going to be marketing. And this, and Rand talks about this in his book, to where he's like, that was like, you know, one of his biggest m…”

Ruben Gamez Oct 3, 2023 ▶ 46:35 Episode 681 | Why Launching a Second Product is Usually a Bad Ide...

Assertion Supported

HubSpot's rejected $25M offer for Moz would now be worth $200M

“And I said, well, out of interest, what would that offer from Halligan now be worth given the increase in HubSpot stock? And he said it would be worth close to two hundred million dollars.”

John Warrillow Jan 19, 2021 ▶ 11:34 Episode 532 | The Art of Selling Your Business with John Warrillow

Assertion Supported

HubSpot offered $25M to acquire Moz at $5.4M ARR

“Rand has built SEO Moz, software, SaaS business, something around five, 5.4 if memory serves million dollars in ARR, annual recurring revenue. And Halligan says, look, you know, we want to buy your business. We're going to give you an offer of twenty five mill…”

John Warrillow Jan 19, 2021 ▶ 10:15 Episode 532 | The Art of Selling Your Business with John Warrillow

Disclosure

Walling: TinySeed investment terms are modeled on Rand Fishkin's structure

“The terms themselves, the core of them were they came, Rand Fishkin, founder of Moz, left his venture-funded startup, came up with these terms for his next startup. So it's like, by definition, a founder came up with it for himself when he raised money. I had …”

Rob Walling Aug 16, 2021 ▶ 58:40 Episode 562.5 | TinySeed Fall 2021 SaaS Accelerator Application Info Session

Assertion Supported

Walling: SparkToro operates with zero employees, hiring exclusively contractors

“And the alternative is I watch folks like Rand Fishkin, who's launched SparkToro, and they're doing plenty of revenue to hire as many people as they want, and they have no employees. They only hire contractors and consultants because they don't want to deal wi…”

Rob Walling Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 18:22 Episode 544 | Annual Raises, Finding Good Startup People, and More Listener Questions with

Assertion Supported

Walling: Dharmesh Shah, Rand Fishkin, and Patrick McKenzie are TinySeed LPs

“If you decide to invest, you'll be joining folks like Dharmesh Shah, co-founder of HubSpot, Rand Fishkin, Founder of SparkToro, Steli Efti, co-founder of Close.com, and Patrick McKenzie, who many of you know as PatioEleven on the internet.”

Rob Walling Sep 29, 2020 ▶ 4:07 Episode 516 | When to Re-write Your SaaS Codebase