The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 127 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Walling: The future of SaaS is still SaaS, not AI agents
“The future of SaaS is not fewer companies. It's a higher bar, and SaaS doesn't need to become something else to survive it. It doesn't turn into agents. It doesn't dissolve into everybody's weekend side project. It stays what it is. The future of SaaS, I belie…”
Vollset predicts Anthropic will inevitably add advertisements to Claude
“Not only are they going to do it, but so is Claude. I guarantee it. You know, they might figure out something clever and do the thing, but like, there's no, there's just not a universe unless Claude get bought by Apple or something. That, that Claude aren't go…”
Walling: Google will see its biggest revenue drop ever due to AI
“So my sixth prediction is that Google will see its biggest ever drop in revenue Due to the transition from 10 blue links being the prominent way people search into AI ads, and I think Google's gonna have a bit of time that they're gonna need to figure it out”
Walling: Twitter will be acquired at a deep discount in 2024
“The second prediction I want to touch on is I predicted that Twitter changes hands in twenty-twenty-four, question mark? And I don't know about you, but does it feel like the writing's on the wall? That Twitter is gonna be snapped up by someone at a deep disco…”
Taber: Commercial office real estate will never recover
“I believe that commercial office space, real estate will never recover.”
Rob Walling predicts AI will kill 10% to 20% of SaaS apps.
“I've said on the show, I think it's 10 to 20% of SaaS apps are gonna, gonna eat it. Like, they're gonna have real trouble. And it's some specific Categories and things that AI can specifically just replace or people will build themselves or whatever.”
Walling: AI agents will increase API demand rather than kill SaaS
“So agents aren't going to kill SAS. They need SAS. They actually increase the demand for good APIs, whether it's CLIs, MCPs, however you want to look at it.”
Hendrickson: Agentic AI will flood inboxes and render cold email completely useless
“Now that's all agentic. And so the amount of cold email that's going to come through, I think it's going to flood the inboxes and make it basically a useless channel in a lot of ways.”
Ries: Vibe coding will inevitably cause a massive mission-critical disaster
“It's only a matter of time before someone vibe codes their way into a massive mission critical disaster. When they deploy code they think they understand, but they don't.”
Bootstrapped Horizontal SaaS Will Face Massive Headwinds in 2026
“So my first prediction is that bootstrapped and mostly bootstrapped horizontal SaaS will experience massive headwinds in twenty-twenty-six.”
The AI Venture Capital Bubble Will Not Burst in 2026
“Prediction number four is that the AI VC bubble will not burst in 2026. Massive investment will continue without a dramatic crash.”
Coburn: 45% of US Workers Will Be Freelancers by 2027
“We're going to be up to 45% of the workers in this country are going to be freelancers by the year twenty-twenty-seven.”
Walling: Google organic SEO traffic will drop 15% to 25% in 2025
“So my fourth prediction for 2025 and the first new one is that search volume For Google organic SEO, and I'm talking about content-based keyword targeting, where you're cranking out an essay, an ultimate guide, a blog post, I think they will slide across the b…”
Walling: Twitter (X) will change ownership in 2024
“I think that Twitter might change hands again in 20, 24. That is probably the ultimate prediction.”
Walling: 37signals' ONCE will not penetrate beyond a developer niche
“That once will not penetrate. It's my prediction. They will not penetrate past the handful of nerdy developers who basically want to manage their own servers.”
Walling: AI will not take developer jobs, but will augment software builders
“I don't believe AI is going to take a bunch of developer jobs. I think this is the rising tide that raises all the boats. Unless you're a real developer, and you don't, or you resist AI, or you don't want to use it becomes this tool of augmentation that I thin…”
Einar Vollset predicts AI will hit a trough in 18 months.
“It's probably overhyped at the moment. It usually tends to be, there'll be like a trough of sorrow in like, 18 months when everything is in the crapper. But I think like two, three years from now, we'll look back and we'll be like, oh yeah, this underlying tec…”
Walling: Clubhouse will fail because Twitter already has network effects
“My prediction is Clubhouse will be done. I know they have this amazing valuation right now, and I say amazing, what is it, billions of dollars, but it's just, for me, it's this typical Silicon Valley FOMO investor thing of everybody wants a piece of it now bec…”
TikTok organic reach will inevitably crash to near zero, mimicking Facebook
“And I think, unfortunately, a lot of these folks are going to find that the same thing that happened with Facebook seven years ago, six years ago, where that engagement rate falls from 11% to 0.09%, that will happen. That will happen to you.”
Taber predicts definitive proof of extraterrestrial life will be discovered
“My fifth and final prediction here is that we will discover definitive proof of extraterrestrial life. I don't know what exact form that's going to take, whether it's going to be Mars or some comment or, you know, an asteroid going by, but that's the predictio…”
Volset: COVID-19 lockdowns will not last 18 months to two years
“Realistically, it's not like we're going to be in lockdown for 18 months to two years. Like, that doesn't, that just won't happen. Like, there are too many things that are likely to work out in one way, shape, or form.”
Rob Walling: Many SaaS Business Models Will Survive AI Headwinds
“Even in the age of AI, though, some SaaS will succeed. We know that SaaS is seeing headwinds, but there are a lot of types of SaaS companies that are going to be okay”
Walling: More apps being built will not lead to more companies
“More apps getting built is not going to mean more companies getting built. Because those are two different things.”
Walling: Consumer and prosumer apps will suffer as users vibe-code replacements
“Consumer and prosumer apps specifically, I think are going to take a big hit, because consumers and prosumers are so cheap, and they'll blow a weekend coding something, vibe coding it, to kill, what, a hundred dollar a year subscription.”
Hendrickson: Bulk Ad Generation Is AI's Only Short-Term Path Over Humans
“And that's the whole thing is like people are going to use the AI for is how can I spin up a hundred ads, each with micro differences between what the avatar is, or the hook, or the phrase, and it can really do effectively like that, and hopefully one of them …”
Walling: AI is garbage at making early-stage product decisions
“Product, like making decisions of what to build next, especially in early stage, I think AI's garbage at that, and I think it will be not good at it for a very long time”
The SaaS business model isn't dying, and near-term margins could increase
“And I don't, I think we're pretty far away from the SAS business model dying. And I think there's potential for even higher margins. I think there's a case to be made for that at least for a little while.”
AI Chatbots Will Drive Massive SaaS Market Share Consolidation in 2026
“Prediction number three is that the top few brands in any category will grab massive market share in twenty-twenty-six, even more so than in prior years due to the fact that AI chat interfaces are recommending a short list of companies.”
Open-Source AI Model Usage Will Double to 40% by Late 2026
“My fifth prediction is that open source AI models Will double in global usage driven by cost control and platform risk. So as of now, a working paper summarized in IT Pro says closed models are about 80% of overall usage, implying that open is about 20%, and I…”
AI Will Cause at Least One Major No-Code Platform to Fail
“My sixth prediction is that at least one major no-code platform will struggle or go under as AI removes its core advantage.”
Bitcoin Will Hit a New All-Time High of $160,000 in 2026
“My eighth prediction is that Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of a 160,000 dollars in 26. And I think the price will range from about a 100,000 to a 160,000 throughout the year.”
Walling predicted in 2018 that Vidhug would not reach mid-six-figure revenue
“In its current incarnation, do I think Vidhug can be a, you know, a mid six figure business? I don't. And it's just my opinion, right? It doesn't mean I'm right or wrong, but I don't see an angle there as it stands today.”
Thomas: Google will not value programmatic SEO like it used to
“Google is not going to, like, value that in the future in the same way that maybe they did in the past.”
Walling: AI agents will not kill SaaS
“There's no way SAS is dying. Just like no code didn't kill SAS. No code had an impact on SAS, but it's so easy to go to the one of the extremes and say, well, it's not going to do anything or it's going to totally kill it.”
AI search may reduce blog traffic while significantly boosting conversion rates
“Maybe absolute traffic comes way down on a blog or a site or a channel or whatever you're doing, but the conversion rates go way up. That's my hopeful coping Rationality. We'll see.”
Walling: Twitter will change hands in 2025
“My first is that Twitter will change hands in twenty-twenty-five. I think either the debt's gonna be called due, someone's gonna do a hostile takeover. The valuation is so low, I just think it is inevitable that Twitter will change hands here at some point, an…”
Walling: Fewer startup homepages will feature 'AI' in H1 tags by 2025
“I am predicting that the term AI will be used in fewer H-ones one year from now, because it will just be assumed that AI is built into everything.”
Walling: Very few AI and ChatGPT wrapper startups will survive long-term
“There are very few that are, you know, quote unquote, AI rappers, ChatGPT rappers that will be around For years.”
Walling: Self-driving taxis will quickly become the norm anywhere regulations permit them
“And the prediction is that self-driving taxis are legit, and anywhere that allows them to operate will quickly see them become the norm.”
Walling: Twitter will change ownership in the near future
“Twitter changes hands in 2024 question mark. No, it did not. That is a fail, but I think it will be true here coming up.”
Vollset predicts Bluesky will fail to gain lasting traction within three years
“No. I think it's just a hissy fit to a degree. Like, and I feel like, you know, it's been that, like there's been threads was kind of the same.”
Osborn predicts Bluesky will grow and achieve lasting traction within three years
“I would bet so. Like I could be wrong, but it feels like in terms of the herd instinct of folks and the herd instinct of tech press and whatnot, there's more now than there was when Mastodon and Threads and everything else launched a few years ago, including B…”
Walling: Shopify will continue competing with and displacing third-party marketplace apps
“You hear Jordan Gall talk about Shopify coming after Cart Hook, and that's not the first nor the last time that Shopify will do that.”
Walling: AI will not eliminate the need for software developers by 2034
“They were talking about learning to code, and how everyone's going to be able to code because of ChatGPT, and developers won't be needed anymore, and I just don't believe that's the case at all. I mean, we've seen the same thing with no code. It's like, you ca…”
Walling: Learning to code will remain relevant over the next 15 years
“Do I believe it will still be relevant in five, 10, 15 years? Yes. People will still be making software.”
Reimer: OpenAI wrappers face tough days as platform boundaries shift
“I think we're going to see a whole generation of open AI rappers kind of see some really tough days coming up as, you know, the boundaries sort of bleed on who owns what part of the stack.”