What-if
Khosla: Public internet wouldn't use TCP/IP without Juniper Networks
“And I do believe if Pradeep Sindhu and I hadn't started Juniper, there would be no TCP IP in the public internet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI will do 80% of 80% of jobs in 3-5 years
“Almost certainly, with no doubt, there isn't a job where AI won't be able to do 80% of 80% of all jobs. So, 80% of all jobs, AI will be able to do most of it within the next three to five years.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2035
Khosla: A 10-person company will hit $1B in revenue within ten years
“And sometime in the next 10 years, we will see a company with a billion dollars of revenue that has only 10 employees.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: BPO and software IT services will mostly disappear
“I think it's very, you know, BPO as a business will disappear. Software IT services will mostly disappear. Disappear means transform pretty radically.”
What-if
Khosla: California wouldn't have 25% EV adoption without Elon Musk
“I don't believe if we'd have electric cars dominant today, be 25% of our car, all car sales in California today if Elon hadn't made that world happen.”
Insight
Khosla: Listening to customers is terrible for revolutionary innovation
“Listening to their customers, which is a good habit if you're trying to be incremental, a really bad thing if you're trying to be revolutionary.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Khosla: Most cars in most cities will be eliminated by 2050
“So one of my goals in my lifetime is to eliminate most cars in most cities. So if we put a 25 year metric on that, by twenty-fifty, we should be able to eliminate that. Now, there isn't another person in the world who told me that's reasonable. I'm pretty sure…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI tutors will outperform the most expensive private human teachers
“The AI will do a better job than the most expensive tutor or teacher you can hire for your kids if you're rich and can afford anything.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI will give Indian villages better cardiac care than Stanford
“A village in India, I will get better cardiac advice, cardiac care, than I can get at Stanford, because Stanford will still, in 15 years, have their cardiologists, and in the village, there'll be AI. Almost certainly true.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: Global income redistribution will be essential by 2050
“I think some form of income redistribution by twenty-fifty will be absolutely essential everywhere in the world.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: Most AI transformation won't be done by large companies
“And almost certainly, most of this won't be done by large companies.”
Assertion Contradicted
Khosla: The vast majority of crypto use cases are illegal
“So the vast majority of uses of crypto are illegal stuff. Gun trades, drug trades sex trafficking. Arms trades. It's the worst use of crypto.”
Assertion Supported
Khosla: AI intake tool used by 40% of UK NHS mental clinics
“In the UK, we have something that's used by 40% of all NHS mental health clinics to intake patients. What does intaking a patient mean? A therapist talk to them and classify their mental illness. The AI is much more accurate than the human therapist. 93% accur…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050
Khosla: AI deflation could make $10K in 2050 outbuy $50K today
“25 years from now, it could be that 10,000 dollars today, ah, in twenty-fifty, buys more goods and services that you need, whether it's food or housing or medical services or entertainment or education, than 50,000 dollars buys today.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2035
Khosla: Over 80% of 2025 investments will lose money despite net market gains
“Even in twenty-twenty-five, most investments that are made will lose money. The vast majority. I might even guess north of 80%. But more money will be made than lost.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khosla: AI startup valuations will most likely collapse
“I do think we will see a collapse in valuations. Most likely. You can't never be certain.”
Opinion
Khosla: India should issue a stablecoin using the Aadhaar system
“Every economy should have a stable coin. The Indian government should issue a stable coin, and then great place to do it with the Aadhaar system.”
Opinion
Khosla: General Motors spent billions on half-hearted EV attempts
“General Motors spent billions of dollars trying to do a half-assed job at an electric vehicle, EV-one, EV-two.”
Opinion
Khosla: De-urbanization is clearly a better policy than urbanization
“Oh, de-urbanization is clearly a better policy. Yeah, I believe.”
Insight
Khosla: Only the improbables are important, so optimize for agility
“I like to say something else which is most people, most of the time, assume improbables are not important. I've always assumed the exact opposite. Only the improbables are important. We just don't know which of a thousand improbables is important. So what do y…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Khosla: Telcos said in 1996 they would never adopt TCP/IP
“They told me in 1996 when we started Juniper, they would never adapt TCP IP.”
Assertion Partly supported
Khosla: 35% of Google's code is written by AI
“Because, you know, Google's gone from zero percent AI-generated code to, I think the last claim, 35% of all code being written in Google is being written by an AI.”
Assertion Partly supported
Khosla: UPI saves India a 3% transaction fee paid in the US
“As part of Aadhaar, today we have UPI, which takes away the need for Visa and MasterCard, so it's a three percent tax on the economy that Indians don't pay, but everybody in the U.S. Pays.”
Insight
Khosla: A founder's most important decision is whose advice to trust
“The single most important decision an entrepreneur makes is whose advice to trust on what topic.”
Vinod Khosla