The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Nikhil Kamath (5)Vinod Khosla (4)Brett Adcock (4)Zorawar Kalra (3)Yuval Noah Harari (2)Rahul Sharma (2)Neal Mohan (2)Elon Musk (2)Chaitanya Gulati (2)Bhakti Modi (2)Umang Bedi (1)Ted Sarandos (1)
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Next up (25)
227 days left 2027-04-28
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Srinivas: Google will remain dominant for years via transaction capture
“Another thing I'll tell you why they'll, they'll still continue to be dominant for a few years is let's say you do your research on like what microphones to buy, whatever, or like, you know, Let's say the best headphones for podcast recording. You're buying eq…”
591 days left 2028-04-26
809 days left 2028-11-30
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1103 days left 2029-09-20
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Kalra: Half of India's Population Will Be Middle Class by 2030
“One in three people today is either middle class or wealthier today. By 2030, that number is going to become one in two. A country with 1.5 billion means seven hundred and fifty million people will be middle class and able to afford the products that we're sel…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1746 days left 2031-06-25
2435 days left 2033-05-14
Kamath: Humanity will abandon fossil fuels within 10 years
“Like, if you look at these guys, Bill Gates, like I was mentioning and all that, I think, five, 10 years from now, I don't think we'll be thinking how we're thinking right now. I don't think we'll be going to fossil for energy. 10 years from now, for sure.”
3245 days left 2035-08-02
3272 days left 2035-08-29
3277 days left 2035-09-03
3340 days left 2035-11-05
3385 days left 2035-12-20
3396 days left 2035-12-31
6576 days left 2044-09-14
8875 days left 2050-12-31
Khosla: Most cars in most cities will be eliminated by 2050
“So one of my goals in my lifetime is to eliminate most cars in most cities. So if we put a 25 year metric on that, by twenty-fifty, we should be able to eliminate that. Now, there isn't another person in the world who told me that's reasonable. I'm pretty sure…”
8875 days left 2050-12-31
14298 days left 2065-11-05
Adcock: Billions of Humanoid Robots Will Exist Within Our Lifetime
“I think we'll, we'll see billions of humanoids on the planet in our, in, like, our lifetime, and they will do everything for us from things at home, like, doing the laundry, washing dishes unpacking groceries cleaning up the house to, we will see billions in t…”
Closed calls (27) the full record →
Luxon: New Zealand might achieve net zero six years early
“And obviously we've got a big commitment to, you know, net 20, 50. And in fact our latest plan, which we have legislated into our parliament you know, even since we might even get there six years early.”
Banga: 1.2B emerging-market youth will reach adulthood facing only 400M jobs
“1.2 billion young people in the emerging markets are going to become 18 years of age in the coming Mutomati 15 years. Right?
Yeah.
Currently, the same markets, currently, this is pre-AI, and we can talk about AI's impacts on the developed world versus the de…”
Mazumdar-Shaw: $100B of biologic drugs will lose patent protection by 2033
“So I think there are about a hundred billion dollars of biologic drugs coming off patent in the next 10 years. And this is the opportunity we are addressing.”
Adcock: Paying Passengers Will Fly on Electric Aircraft Within 5 Years
“So I think within the next, like, five years, we'll be taking passengers, like, paying passengers around in, in air spaces here in the world on electric aircraft like this.”
Sharma: India will never sustain an annual GDP growth rate above 6%
“And therefore we'll never grow at a rate of more than six percent on a sustained basis has been my view for a very long period of time.”
Sharma: Poland is likely the next emerging market to achieve developed status
“And so the next country to become a developed country likely is going to be Poland.”
Arora: Quantum computing will break every modern encryption key
“When quantum comes about, it'll break every key, which is true. It will break every key that is there today.”
Gogri: Gen-IV Small Modular Reactors Should Come Online by 2030
“Ok, so the point is that my hope is around this generation four reactors, which, again, there is a hope element to that, but they should be getting online by the end of this decade, and they are more smaller than the big power plant.”
Gates: AI productivity gains will not eliminate software engineers
“For software you know, we'll still need those software engineers. We'll, we may take some of the extra productivity for quality, some for quantity, but we're not gonna You know, start, ah, not, not needing software engineers.”
Bhat: YouTube will natively integrate AI lip-synced audio dubbing
“It's going to get built in on YouTube, Nikhil. There's going to be a button where you can select a language and your mouth will move in that language. It's going to come into YouTube. It's going to take forever because YouTube is a slightly slower moving beast…”
Nithin Kamath: The world's first trillionaire will emerge from climate solutions
“I think the first trillionaire on this planet will be someone solving for climate problem.”
Srinivas: Indian IT giants will hire fewer people going forward
“They're not going to hire as many people going forward.”
Kamath: Premium beauty will grow significantly faster than mass segment
“Tomorrow we will care a lot more for how we look as a means of getting validation. So anything that aids that will likely grow, both in the mass and the premium segment, I think the affluent will probably adapt faster. So the premium will go significantly fast…”
Sharma predicts large caps will outperform small and mid caps for the foreseeable future
“One of my big top trends was this, that I expect much more that the large caps to outperform small to mid caps for the small caps for at least the foreseeable future.”
Khosrowshahi: Global EV market share will favor China for a while
“My expectation is overall share, especially in the EV sector on a global basis of EVs is going to be is going China's way for a while, but individual innovative OEMs, they're going to do fine.”
Tarun Mehta: Ather will reach 1,000 touchpoints within 2.5 years
“We'll go from 200 touch points to a thousand touch points in the next two and a half years. At which point you've crossed oil and field scale already.”
Kamath: Social media platforms will start charging for data access
“We will probably evolve to the point that everybody starts charging for access to their data, right? Like Twitter will charge, Reddit will charge Quora will charge, social media will charge in its own way.”
Bombay Shaving Company will exceed 2020-2021 annual revenue in EBITDA this year
“So we will do more EBITDA this year than the revenue in”
Srinivas: GPU cloud provider CoreWeave will IPO soon
“Okay, so there's this company called Core Vive in, in the US. I think it's gonna IPO pretty soon.”
Sharma: US net immigration likely to fall below 500,000 this year
“This year, I'm told that number is likely to drop to less than half a million.”
EV battery cell production in India will begin within 24 months
“I think in the next 24 months, cells will start being produced in India, right? And maybe in 48 months, we'll have a very small chunk.”
Virwani: Indian REITs will see higher appreciation than US REITs
“India will see higher appreciation, I would say, than foreign REITs, or like, you know, the US REITs and things like that, so.”
Shankar: India office leasing will probably hit 70M sq ft in 2024
“India is going to have its probably most successful year of office leasing. I think just in the first half of this year, some thirty four million square feet of office space has been transacted. And that's half the year. Second half of the year is usually more…”