Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: AI Hardware and Humanoids Will Replace Phones and Computers
“Yes. Every phone and computer was built pre-AI. The, All the hardware we have today in the world needs to be completely rebuilt from scratch.”
Opinion
Adcock: Most humanoid competitors deceptively rely on human teleoperation in demos
“And what you're seeing now in the world is like, I would say most major competitor to us at this point are putting out most of their content and updates teleopt from a human. And I think it's like perhaps some of the most deceiving things I've ever seen.”
Opinion
Adcock: Figure AI and the US lead all Chinese humanoid competitors
“The U.S., and particularly Figure, is ahead of every single Chinese company I've seen globally, of what I know publicly, in terms of capabilities. Like, watch the robot do advanced things with neural nets autonomously over long horizons. And the answer is, lik…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Meta's AI lab approach is going to collapse
“It's, like, the opposite of what Meta, I think Meta's doing that right now, right? Look at the Meta, like, a super intelligence lab. It's, like, you're putting, like, I mean, it's just gonna, it's just immediately gonna, it's gonna immediately collapse. It's n…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Goods and services prices will collapse toward zero with synthetic agents
“The prices of goods and services are, will slowly start collapsing, basically, anatomically approaching zero.”
Prediction Held up
Adcock: Paying Passengers Will Fly on Electric Aircraft Within 5 Years
“So I think within the next, like, five years, we'll be taking passengers, like, paying passengers around in, in air spaces here in the world on electric aircraft like this.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: All Aviation Will Transition to Electric in Our Lifetime
“Like, my view is, like, all aircraft, like, all, all aviation, like, all air transport will move electric here. And I think hopefully in our lifetime”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2065
Adcock: Billions of Humanoid Robots Will Exist Within Our Lifetime
“I think we'll, we'll see billions of humanoids on the planet in our, in, like, our lifetime, and they will do everything for us from things at home, like, doing the laundry, washing dishes unpacking groceries cleaning up the house to, we will see billions in t…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2035
Adcock: True general-purpose humanoid robots are under 10 years away
“I don't, it's not something we'll solve in a month, but it's certainly not something that's 10 years away at this point.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Voice AI will approach human Turing tests within 12–18 months
“We will see in 12 to 18 months voice models approaching human Turing tests, and that's not just from an IQ perspective and information retrieval, it's EQ as well, as we just talked about in naturalness.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Deep Learning Transfers From Logistics Tasks to Folding Laundry
“We are taking data from all the robots, and we are consulting that out to, like, our servers here at Figure, and we're training on that. And what we're seeing now is we're seeing, like, incredible transfer from other robot data that's helping the current robot…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: AI has exhausted internet text tokens, requiring physical world data
“We've kind of, like we've, like, tapped out all the, kind of, tokens on the internet at this point. So we think, like, being able to explore the physical world is, like, extremely important for, like, overall intelligence.”
Disclosure
Adcock: Figure AI ended OpenAI partnership after a year to build in-house
“OpenAI led my series B. We generally were working on some kind of advanced models with them. Or maybe a year or two, a year or so, about a year. And I figure ultimately chose to kind of, ah, leave them and go in our own direction.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adcock: OpenAI partnership hurt hiring by creating perception of outsourced AI
“It also became hard, like, hiring people when we had a partnership like that, where folks felt like we were outsourcing our AI, which we weren't doing, and we were actually doing all of it mostly ourselves internally.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Adcock: Humanoid robotics will create the world's largest company by far
“My view is that there's going to be a generational company to be built that We'll be able to put, ultimately, billions of robots on the planet that will build, like, the largest company we've ever seen in the world by a long shot.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Robot costs will drop dramatically over the next five years
“You'll have this dramatic reduction here over the next, like, five years as we approach higher volume manufacturing, and then you'll have another step down once robots can fully build robots in the loop together, and you remove all human labor from the whole m…”
Insight
Adcock: Humanoids Must Run Real-Time Motor Neural Nets On-Board
“We need to run
A decent amount of the neural nets at, ah, kind of like, basically a couple hundred hertz, like a couple hundred times a second.
There's no way you're gonna be able to do that fully off board.
The robot, ah, would just be too slow.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Adcock: Figure AI robots can work full human shifts today
“I wouldn't say it's a blocker today. Like, we can, we, like, we can do work In a lot of cases, almost the whole day, depending on what the task looks like and if it's not that, if it's, you know, a task that has a lot of locomotion and movements, we can do kin…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adcock: Humanoids will combine off-board cloud brains with fast on-board models
“I think you will certainly have off board reasoning. I think you will have, I think you'll have both. I think you'll have off-board, like, a big brain off-board that you need to talk to that can do very complex maybe planning and reasoning. You'll have on-boar…”
Insight
Adcock: Humanoid robotics fleet scaling instantly propagates skills from one robot to millions
“Once, like, one robot knows how to do, like, logistics, That's the same neural networks we can put to every single robot in the fleet, and they can all do it. And so you have this weird scaling law here for humanoids where once, like, one robot knows how to do…”
Disclosure
Adcock: I Won't Let Figure Robots Roam Unsupervised Around My Kids
“I've had a robot in my house now for like a few months. And You know, my kids have been there, but we, like, we monitor the robot. So we're not, like, we're not, like, we're, like, we have somebody with the robot. Like, we're not letting the kids go up and hug…”
Insight
Adcock: Humanoid robot manufacturing resembles consumer electronics, not cars
“Automotive manufacturing is like the most complex systems I've ever seen in my entire life all put together to manufacture cars. It's like hundreds of times harder than manufacturing consumer electronics. Like, we manufacture consumer electronics a lot by hand…”
Insight
Adcock: Hiring experienced big-company executives is a flawed playbook
“I've always I think my, like, the conventional wisdom of everything is to go out and hire somebody, like, really experienced that makes you feel really good from a really good background that's at a successful company. And I found, like, that playbook is just …”
Disclosure
Adcock: Figure AI Aims to Replicate All Physical Human Capabilities
“And the goal here, it figures to be able to do everything a human can in the physical world.”
Brett Adcock