The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Adcock: AI Hardware and Humanoids Will Replace Phones and Computers
“Yes. Every phone and computer was built pre-AI. The, All the hardware we have today in the world needs to be completely rebuilt from scratch.”
Adcock: Most humanoid competitors deceptively rely on human teleoperation in demos
“And what you're seeing now in the world is like, I would say most major competitor to us at this point are putting out most of their content and updates teleopt from a human. And I think it's like perhaps some of the most deceiving things I've ever seen.”
Adcock: Figure AI and the US lead all Chinese humanoid competitors
“The U.S., and particularly Figure, is ahead of every single Chinese company I've seen globally, of what I know publicly, in terms of capabilities. Like, watch the robot do advanced things with neural nets autonomously over long horizons. And the answer is, lik…”
Adcock: Meta's AI lab approach is going to collapse
“It's, like, the opposite of what Meta, I think Meta's doing that right now, right? Look at the Meta, like, a super intelligence lab. It's, like, you're putting, like, I mean, it's just gonna, it's just immediately gonna, it's gonna immediately collapse. It's n…”
Adcock: Goods and services prices will collapse toward zero with synthetic agents
“The prices of goods and services are, will slowly start collapsing, basically, anatomically approaching zero.”
Adcock: Paying Passengers Will Fly on Electric Aircraft Within 5 Years
“So I think within the next, like, five years, we'll be taking passengers, like, paying passengers around in, in air spaces here in the world on electric aircraft like this.”
Adcock: All Aviation Will Transition to Electric in Our Lifetime
“Like, my view is, like, all aircraft, like, all, all aviation, like, all air transport will move electric here. And I think hopefully in our lifetime”
Adcock: Billions of Humanoid Robots Will Exist Within Our Lifetime
“I think we'll, we'll see billions of humanoids on the planet in our, in, like, our lifetime, and they will do everything for us from things at home, like, doing the laundry, washing dishes unpacking groceries cleaning up the house to, we will see billions in t…”
Adcock: True general-purpose humanoid robots are under 10 years away
“I don't, it's not something we'll solve in a month, but it's certainly not something that's 10 years away at this point.”
Adcock: Voice AI will approach human Turing tests within 12–18 months
“We will see in 12 to 18 months voice models approaching human Turing tests, and that's not just from an IQ perspective and information retrieval, it's EQ as well, as we just talked about in naturalness.”
Adcock: Deep Learning Transfers From Logistics Tasks to Folding Laundry
“We are taking data from all the robots, and we are consulting that out to, like, our servers here at Figure, and we're training on that. And what we're seeing now is we're seeing, like, incredible transfer from other robot data that's helping the current robot…”
Adcock: AI has exhausted internet text tokens, requiring physical world data
“We've kind of, like we've, like, tapped out all the, kind of, tokens on the internet at this point. So we think, like, being able to explore the physical world is, like, extremely important for, like, overall intelligence.”
Adcock: Figure AI ended OpenAI partnership after a year to build in-house
“OpenAI led my series B. We generally were working on some kind of advanced models with them. Or maybe a year or two, a year or so, about a year. And I figure ultimately chose to kind of, ah, leave them and go in our own direction.”
Adcock: OpenAI partnership hurt hiring by creating perception of outsourced AI
“It also became hard, like, hiring people when we had a partnership like that, where folks felt like we were outsourcing our AI, which we weren't doing, and we were actually doing all of it mostly ourselves internally.”
Adcock: Humanoid robotics will create the world's largest company by far
“My view is that there's going to be a generational company to be built that We'll be able to put, ultimately, billions of robots on the planet that will build, like, the largest company we've ever seen in the world by a long shot.”
Adcock: Robot costs will drop dramatically over the next five years
“You'll have this dramatic reduction here over the next, like, five years as we approach higher volume manufacturing, and then you'll have another step down once robots can fully build robots in the loop together, and you remove all human labor from the whole m…”
Adcock: Humanoids Must Run Real-Time Motor Neural Nets On-Board
“We need to run
A decent amount of the neural nets at, ah, kind of like, basically a couple hundred hertz, like a couple hundred times a second.
There's no way you're gonna be able to do that fully off board.
The robot, ah, would just be too slow.”
Adcock: Figure AI robots can work full human shifts today
“I wouldn't say it's a blocker today. Like, we can, we, like, we can do work In a lot of cases, almost the whole day, depending on what the task looks like and if it's not that, if it's, you know, a task that has a lot of locomotion and movements, we can do kin…”
Adcock: Humanoids will combine off-board cloud brains with fast on-board models
“I think you will certainly have off board reasoning. I think you will have, I think you'll have both. I think you'll have off-board, like, a big brain off-board that you need to talk to that can do very complex maybe planning and reasoning. You'll have on-boar…”
Adcock: Humanoid robotics fleet scaling instantly propagates skills from one robot to millions
“Once, like, one robot knows how to do, like, logistics, That's the same neural networks we can put to every single robot in the fleet, and they can all do it. And so you have this weird scaling law here for humanoids where once, like, one robot knows how to do…”
Adcock: I Won't Let Figure Robots Roam Unsupervised Around My Kids
“I've had a robot in my house now for like a few months. And You know, my kids have been there, but we, like, we monitor the robot. So we're not, like, we're not, like, we're, like, we have somebody with the robot. Like, we're not letting the kids go up and hug…”
Adcock: Humanoid robot manufacturing resembles consumer electronics, not cars
“Automotive manufacturing is like the most complex systems I've ever seen in my entire life all put together to manufacture cars. It's like hundreds of times harder than manufacturing consumer electronics. Like, we manufacture consumer electronics a lot by hand…”
Adcock: Hiring experienced big-company executives is a flawed playbook
“I've always I think my, like, the conventional wisdom of everything is to go out and hire somebody, like, really experienced that makes you feel really good from a really good background that's at a successful company. And I found, like, that playbook is just …”
Adcock: Figure AI Aims to Replicate All Physical Human Capabilities
“And the goal here, it figures to be able to do everything a human can in the physical world.”
Adcock: Figure AI has shipped three robot generations in 3.5 years
“We're about three and a half years old now. We've shipped now three generations of humanoid robots. And we've been able to demonstrate that humanoids can do, like, useful human-like work now, fully autonomously, and in most cases, like, with neural nets all th…”
Adcock: Figure humanoids have run commercially at BMW for five months
“We have a commercial customer here in the U S we've now been running with for over five months now every day.
we put this out publicly.
It's with BMW.
That's a fully onboard onboard system that's doing all the reasoning onboard of what the robot should do.”
Adcock: Figure 3 robot features three OLED screens and new audio system
“We have, like, in figure three, we have three screens. We have a front screen, like, an OLED. We have, like, two side screens. We can, like, I'll talk about that. We have a speaker and mic, a new speaker and mic system that's, like, really, actually really goo…”
Adcock: Figure robots do not have facial expressions or human-like features
“Our view right now is that we are trying to go out and do useful work. We're not trying to fool another human that we're a human from, like, a entertainment perspective or maybe companion perspective. So we've not designed the robot with, like, facial expressi…”
Adcock: Actuator and battery improvements allow fully electric humanoid robots
“We've now had torque density and power density of actuators and battery systems get good enough where you can run, like, fully electric systems instead of hydraulic systems, and that makes the robot smaller, lighter weight, quieter, faster like, you can run, t…”
Adcock: Waymo is super underrated at a $50 billion valuation
“I would probably pick Waymo as my pick. I think I, you know, I think it's like a fifty billion market cap super underrated.”
Adcock: Figure AI has over $1 billion in cash
“Like, for us, like, we have, like, we have, like, over a billion dollars of cash.”
Adcock: Archer Aviation Flies Full-Scale Electric Aircraft Weekly
“I mean, we fly basically every week our full-scale aircraft at this point, fully electric, similar concept operations we'd want to do in market.”
Adcock: Figure AI designs its entire hardware and software stack in-house
“At Figure here, we design basically the entire hardware and software stack on the robot, almost entirely ourselves at this point. So that goes down to, like, the motors and battery systems, all the electronics, wiring, kinematics, and structures. And sensors.”
Adcock: Humanoid robots are far less energy-efficient than biological humans
“Today we're like far, like less efficient than a human. Humans are like the, are, we are like extremely efficient. Like, our, you know, biological neural nets are really efficient. The way, the, how much energy, or how much power we use to exert, like, walking…”