Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sharma: India will never sustain an annual GDP growth rate above 6%
“And therefore we'll never grow at a rate of more than six percent on a sustained basis has been my view for a very long period of time.”
Insight
Sharma: Onerous Indian Regulations Force Businesses to Break Rules
“One big reason why so many people in this country are forced to do stuff which is strictly not per the law or the regulatory framework is because those laws and, ah, regulations are so onerous that to do business in India, you almost have to beat them.”
Opinion
Sharma: Fear of Expressing Opinions in India Is Higher Than 20–30 Years Ago
“I think there's a level of fear is there, which is that if you end up saying something, or if you end up doing something, you know, that there may be consequences for you. I think that That has become much more in India today than it used to be 2030 years ago.”
Opinion
Sharma: Outside of AI, all US assets are overvalued or fundamentally flawed
“That if you want to be in the US, do it only for AI. Everything else in the US today doesn't, is either expensive or fundamentally flawed.”
Opinion
Sharma: India Lacks the Capability to Build Sovereign Big Tech Alternatives
“But that's where we, I don't think we have that, that capability as yet. I don't see the evidence.”
Opinion
Sharma: US Big Tech market dominance is so extreme that acquisitions should be banned
“If I was a regulator in America, I would like, even though I'm a free market person, I think it's become so extreme where you need, this is one area where I would say that almost that acquisitions need to be banned.”
Assertion Supported
Sharma: Western social and economic mobility has declined over past 40 years
“Social and economic mobility in Western societies has declined in the last 30 to 40 years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sharma: Western incumbents lose elections while emerging market incumbents win
“If you look at the Western countries today most governments lose election there whereas in emerging markets, in developing countries of late, most incumbents are winning their elections which is the big difference that's happened.”
Insight
Sharma: US growth outperformance over Europe and Japan is largely demographic
“The really underappreciated part of the demographic advantage America had. That because, partly because of immigration, America's population growth rate was much faster than Europe and Japan. So if you adjusted for per capita income, yes, the gap is there, but…”
Insight
Sharma: Government regulation inherently favors incumbent companies 90% of the time
“Every time a policymaker introduces a new regulation, remember that regulation by definition tends to be pro-incumbent. Whoever the person in power or the company which is already established, regulation, 90% of the time favors those people. So I think that is…”
Opinion
Sharma: Bitcoin and crypto are here to stay as mainstream assets
“I think Bitcoin is here to stay. Crypto is here to stay. This has lasted long enough. It's getting mainstream, whether it's banks or asset management firms who told you five years ago, we'll never touch this thing.”
Insight
Sharma: 2022 Russia sanctions triggered major shift to gold and Bitcoin
“That was a big, in fact, Philip for gold and for Bitcoin and stuff. The moment America sanctioned Russia, ah, back in, ah, the spring of twenty-twenty-two.”
Opinion
Sharma: Competitive federalism is India's greatest strength and Modi's legacy priority
“I find this competitive federalism is India's greatest strength, and the more the center can allow that, if Modi really wants to leave behind a legacy, I think that in terms of, ah, this is where I would say, you know, should be the real priority.”
Opinion
Sharma: Current AI boom echoes the 1999-2000 dotcom bubble
“I think that it's undoubtedly a hugely transformative technology, but I'm very concerned that this got echoes of what we went through in nine nine, 2000.”
Insight
Sharma: Leaders become intolerant of criticism once firmly entrenched in power
“And then I learned that this advice giving business
It's just counterproductive, and doing, giving frank exchange, and all that, just doesn't work.
And how, it also taught me about how leaders transform over time.
That when he first came to power, he seemed re…”
Opinion
Sharma: Publishing in The New York Times Requires Fitting an Ideological Filter
“Like I used to write for the New York Times before this. And there it's much more ideological. If you don't have that world vision, then to pass your content through that filter is lot more difficult. That is a bigger problem, I feel.”
Insight
Sharma: Subscription Business Models Pressure Outlets to Cater to Partisan Subscribers
“Their subscription revenue drives their revenue model. It's not, ah, it's not advertising so much anymore. It's there, but subscription is the overwhelming driver. Now you would imagine that in a subscription driven model, it should be much more, ah, free pres…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2035
Sharma: Global equity markets will outperform the US over the next decade
“No, my view is very clear just now, that over the next 10, five, 10 years, I think the rest of the world outperforms the US.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sharma: The US dollar will remain relatively weak for 5 to 7 years
“And a very key part of this is going to be that the dollar, I think, is going to be relatively weak for the next Five, seven years for the foreseeable future.”
Insight
Sharma: Seizing Russian assets alerted global governments to US dollar risks
“The way the sanctions were imposed on, on Russia at the time of the Ukrainian war, where the assets were seized. And Russia was thrown off the dollar grid completely. I think that was a big wake up call for governments around the world that, Listen, this, if t…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sharma predicts large caps will outperform small and mid caps for the foreseeable future
“One of my big top trends was this, that I expect much more that the large caps to outperform small to mid caps for the small caps for at least the foreseeable future.”
Opinion
Sharma: Dominance by seven companies is America's fundamental economic problem
“What's the fundamental problem today in America? It's that you're dominated by seven companies. That I think has become a fundamental issue at many levels in America today.”
Insight
Sharma: No country achieves rapid economic growth without rapid population growth
“There is no country in the world which has grown rapidly without rapid population growth. No country.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sharma: China is the only country besides the US developing meaningful AI
“Even on the AI front, the only other country in the world today which can do AI of any meaningful scale is China. No European country or any emerging market can.”
Ruchir Sharma