The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 91 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sharma: India will never sustain an annual GDP growth rate above 6%
“And therefore we'll never grow at a rate of more than six percent on a sustained basis has been my view for a very long period of time.”
Sharma: Onerous Indian Regulations Force Businesses to Break Rules
“One big reason why so many people in this country are forced to do stuff which is strictly not per the law or the regulatory framework is because those laws and, ah, regulations are so onerous that to do business in India, you almost have to beat them.”
Sharma: Fear of Expressing Opinions in India Is Higher Than 20–30 Years Ago
“I think there's a level of fear is there, which is that if you end up saying something, or if you end up doing something, you know, that there may be consequences for you. I think that That has become much more in India today than it used to be 2030 years ago.”
Sharma: Outside of AI, all US assets are overvalued or fundamentally flawed
“That if you want to be in the US, do it only for AI. Everything else in the US today doesn't, is either expensive or fundamentally flawed.”
Sharma: India Lacks the Capability to Build Sovereign Big Tech Alternatives
“But that's where we, I don't think we have that, that capability as yet. I don't see the evidence.”
Sharma: US Big Tech market dominance is so extreme that acquisitions should be banned
“If I was a regulator in America, I would like, even though I'm a free market person, I think it's become so extreme where you need, this is one area where I would say that almost that acquisitions need to be banned.”
Sharma: Western social and economic mobility has declined over past 40 years
“Social and economic mobility in Western societies has declined in the last 30 to 40 years.”
Sharma: Western incumbents lose elections while emerging market incumbents win
“If you look at the Western countries today most governments lose election there whereas in emerging markets, in developing countries of late, most incumbents are winning their elections which is the big difference that's happened.”
Sharma: US growth outperformance over Europe and Japan is largely demographic
“The really underappreciated part of the demographic advantage America had. That because, partly because of immigration, America's population growth rate was much faster than Europe and Japan. So if you adjusted for per capita income, yes, the gap is there, but…”
Sharma: Government regulation inherently favors incumbent companies 90% of the time
“Every time a policymaker introduces a new regulation, remember that regulation by definition tends to be pro-incumbent. Whoever the person in power or the company which is already established, regulation, 90% of the time favors those people. So I think that is…”
Sharma: Bitcoin and crypto are here to stay as mainstream assets
“I think Bitcoin is here to stay. Crypto is here to stay. This has lasted long enough. It's getting mainstream, whether it's banks or asset management firms who told you five years ago, we'll never touch this thing.”
Sharma: 2022 Russia sanctions triggered major shift to gold and Bitcoin
“That was a big, in fact, Philip for gold and for Bitcoin and stuff. The moment America sanctioned Russia, ah, back in, ah, the spring of twenty-twenty-two.”
Sharma: Competitive federalism is India's greatest strength and Modi's legacy priority
“I find this competitive federalism is India's greatest strength, and the more the center can allow that, if Modi really wants to leave behind a legacy, I think that in terms of, ah, this is where I would say, you know, should be the real priority.”
Sharma: Current AI boom echoes the 1999-2000 dotcom bubble
“I think that it's undoubtedly a hugely transformative technology, but I'm very concerned that this got echoes of what we went through in nine nine, 2000.”
Sharma: Leaders become intolerant of criticism once firmly entrenched in power
“And then I learned that this advice giving business
It's just counterproductive, and doing, giving frank exchange, and all that, just doesn't work.
And how, it also taught me about how leaders transform over time.
That when he first came to power, he seemed re…”
Sharma: Publishing in The New York Times Requires Fitting an Ideological Filter
“Like I used to write for the New York Times before this. And there it's much more ideological. If you don't have that world vision, then to pass your content through that filter is lot more difficult. That is a bigger problem, I feel.”
Sharma: Subscription Business Models Pressure Outlets to Cater to Partisan Subscribers
“Their subscription revenue drives their revenue model. It's not, ah, it's not advertising so much anymore. It's there, but subscription is the overwhelming driver. Now you would imagine that in a subscription driven model, it should be much more, ah, free pres…”
Sharma: Global equity markets will outperform the US over the next decade
“No, my view is very clear just now, that over the next 10, five, 10 years, I think the rest of the world outperforms the US.”
Sharma: The US dollar will remain relatively weak for 5 to 7 years
“And a very key part of this is going to be that the dollar, I think, is going to be relatively weak for the next Five, seven years for the foreseeable future.”
Sharma: Seizing Russian assets alerted global governments to US dollar risks
“The way the sanctions were imposed on, on Russia at the time of the Ukrainian war, where the assets were seized. And Russia was thrown off the dollar grid completely. I think that was a big wake up call for governments around the world that, Listen, this, if t…”
Sharma predicts large caps will outperform small and mid caps for the foreseeable future
“One of my big top trends was this, that I expect much more that the large caps to outperform small to mid caps for the small caps for at least the foreseeable future.”
Sharma: Dominance by seven companies is America's fundamental economic problem
“What's the fundamental problem today in America? It's that you're dominated by seven companies. That I think has become a fundamental issue at many levels in America today.”
Sharma: No country achieves rapid economic growth without rapid population growth
“There is no country in the world which has grown rapidly without rapid population growth. No country.”
Sharma: China is the only country besides the US developing meaningful AI
“Even on the AI front, the only other country in the world today which can do AI of any meaningful scale is China. No European country or any emerging market can.”
Sharma: US stock market would be down without the AI bubble
“Because if it weren't for the AI bubble today, the AI mania, I think the American stock market would be down.”
Sharma: The entire US valuation bubble is currently concentrated in private markets
“US, the entire bubble is, is now in the private markets, and it's not been tested.”
Sharma: Poland is likely the next emerging market to achieve developed status
“And so the next country to become a developed country likely is going to be Poland.”
Sharma: In Emerging Markets, Country Selection Matters More Than Stock Picking
“In emerging markets I've always believed that getting the country right is very important. Country. And then at the end of the day, Like you have to buy the best quality companies in that country, but if you get the country wrong, then if you're investing in A…”
Sharma: Consumers, not AI producers, will capture economic value over next decade
“That is my thing that for the next, in the next five to 10 years, that we as a consumer will benefit, but I'm not sure that the producers of AI, so to speak, are going to be the beneficiaries. I don't think that's going to be the case.”
Sharma: China and Singapore had far more economic freedom than India in the 1980s
“From an economic standpoint, China and Singapore, especially then, Were far more, ah, free than India.”
Sharma: China laid off 90 million state enterprise workers in 1990s
“In the Nineties. This is one thing which I find very fascinating. China fired ninety million people from its state-owned enterprises.”
Sharma: East Asian nations prioritized economic freedom over political democracy
“India gave its people lots of political freedom. That you can vote, and the way you want, and you have democracy. These countries did not give their people much political freedom, but they gave their people much more economic freedom compared to India.”
Sharma: India's 1960s–70s import substitution left industry uncompetitive
“We tried that. We tried that in the 19 sixties. We tried that in the 19 seventies. It was called something called import substitution, which is exactly what you're referring to, and it didn't work. It left us very uncompetitive.”
Sharma: Incumbent US White House party lost three consecutive elections for first time in 200 years
“This is the first time in America's history that the, at least in the last 200 years that I know of, that the incumbent party in the White House lost three times in a row.”
Sharma: American discontent is driven by declining social and geographic mobility
“That's one of the reasons the grievance of people is because over time these gaps have increased a lot more. You know, where you feel that you can't, ah, that social mobility is going on because you can't move from one city to another that easily as you, like,…”
Sharma: US net immigration jumped to 2-3 million annually post-pandemic
“Then what happened was that after the pandemic, and because the Biden administration was supposed to really lose towards immigration, that number jumped to two or three million people a year of people coming in.”
Sharma: US net immigration likely to fall below 500,000 this year
“This year, I'm told that number is likely to drop to less than half a million.”
Sharma: Bailing out private companies prevents new entrants and harms mobility
“The government should not be bailing out private sector companies, and should sort of, you know, keep, because I think that that creates an impression that the government is favoring the incumbent. Because after all, if companies are failing, it's, you know, i…”
Sharma: Reserve currency status cuts US borrowing costs by 50-100 bps
“Some estimates suggest somewhere between 50 to hundred basis points, half a percent to one percent of annual borrowing costs are possibly lower. Because of the fact that America has the world's reserve currency.”
Sharma: Regulation Is the Single Biggest Driver of Western Housing Unaffordability
“Regulation in the West for sure has been the single biggest reason why homes have become so unaffordable.”
Sharma: US annual home construction matches 1950s levels despite 50% population growth
“The number of new homes that America builds today is the same as a year, is the same as it was in the 19 fifties and sixties. Even though the population is 50% higher.”
Sharma: India's Tax-to-GDP Ratio Is High for Its Per Capita Income
“Because for our per capita income level at 3000 dollars or so, our tax to GDP ratio is pretty high.”
Sharma: Studies Show Flat Taxes Are Most Effective for Raising Revenue
“The studies which have done have generally shown that, in fact, a flat tax tends to be the best way to raise more taxes.”
Sharma: Regulatory burden in India exceeds any other country he knows
“Like the regulatory burden is still much greater in India than any other country that I know of.”
Sharma: India is not unusually corrupt given its per capita income
“As far as India is concerned, given a per capita income, I think that it's not as if we are Much more corrupt.”
Sharma: Ballooning government deficits prevent the adoption of universal basic income
“Again, I don't see the evidence that it's moving in a very big direction just because the deficits are already so large for these countries.”
Sharma: AI is a larger economic force than Donald Trump
“AI mania, that as I keep telling people that you're obsessed with Trump, but there's a force larger than Trump. It's AI today.”
Sharma: India's net foreign direct investment has never sustainably exceeded 1%
“Because if you look at the East Asian countries, when they were doing well, since we've spoken so much about East Asia today as an example, they were attracting FDI of three to four percent of GDP. We have never really broken much above one percent of GDP, the…”