Doug Pepper
General Partner, ICONIQ Growth · 3 appearances on the record.
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investor@dougpepper ↗LinkedIn ↗iconiqcapital.com ↗
Doug Pepper focuses on enterprise software, SaaS, and AI investments, with prior partner tenures at Shasta Ventures and InterWest Partners spanning more than two decades. He is known for investments in major tech companies including Marketo, Braze, BetterUp, Writer, and CaptivateIQ.
35statements → 21claims → 8claims resolved → 75%fully supported → 3.66/5average certainty → 2.23/5average debate potential → ≈4.0/5argument clarity, estimated →
6 supported 1 partly supported 1 contradicted 3 not yet assessed 10 not checkable as stated how the 21 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
9 predictions · 12 assertions · 3 opinions · 8 insights · 3 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 21 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 8 are resolved, 3 are not yet assessed, and 10 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Doug argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Successful SaaS Startups Consistently Hit a Growth Plateau Around $15M ARR
“We looked at all the data of our companies over a decade. Even the successful ones hit this thing that we call the growth plateau. Around fifteen million ARR, you can see in the data, and again, these are the successful companies that made it through. They hit…”
Their most notable contradicted claim
Pepper: SaaS Multiples Will Settle Higher Than May 2022 Levels Within 24 Months
“I happen to be one of the bulls and I'm not calling the bottom. That's not our job to pick the bottom, but my guess is that we do settle out at multiples higher than today over the next. 24 months. And we get back to that being normal as opposed to normal bein…”
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
How they sound: not measured why? →
We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Doug Pepper on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.
Everything Doug Pepper said on the Official SaaStr Podcast that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Doug Pepper: Crypto Is an Unreal Bubble Unlike SaaS Which Will Survive
“I don't think that this is going away or that this is some inner, this is not crypto, which is going through an internet like bubble for 99 and 2000, because it's not real. These businesses are all absolutely fundamentally real and needed. There's just a bit o…”
Revenue Growth Overtook Efficiency as the Top Valuation Driver in Q2 2023
“What you can see through kind of most of 22 last year was that efficiency went to the top. That's how companies were valued. And of course, now look at the very last point on the far right. Q two, 20, 23, it's flipped again and on top revenue growth.”
Pepper: Growth VCs can no longer underwrite to $10B outcomes
“And I think it's going to fundamentally change how people think about entry points because no longer can you assume, you know, ten billion to generate a venture return in most cases.”
Pepper: Nearly 100% of 2021 Startups Cannot Raise at Prior Valuations
“I mean, I think if you're saying at the same price as that 20, 21 valuation, I think it's close to a hundred percent.”
Doug Pepper: ICONIQ Seeks Near-Tripling Growth for Sub-$10M ARR Startups
“Below 10, we're still looking for companies that are, they're maybe not tripling, but close. And the old saying is the reason that Neeraj came up with triple, triple, double, double is if you're not tripling at single digits, it's awfully hard to believe that …”
Pepper: Venture investing activity will be dramatically higher by late 2023
“I think the public, I think it's a great time to buy a lot of these names in the public markets. That's not investment advice, but given that, I think we're going to be in a much better place next year. And then in terms of our activity levels, I think dramati…”
Pepper: SaaS Multiples Will Settle Higher Than May 2022 Levels Within 24 Months
“I happen to be one of the bulls and I'm not calling the bottom. That's not our job to pick the bottom, but my guess is that we do settle out at multiples higher than today over the next. 24 months. And we get back to that being normal as opposed to normal bein…”
Pepper: 2022-2023 VC vintages will outperform 2020-2021
“Probably the best fun vintages are going to be 20, 22, 23, as opposed to 20, 21.”
Pepper: Crossover investors moving earlier damages the startup ecosystem
“When I hear about some of these crossover investors moving earlier, it really scares me. I think some of them have done an amazing job innovating at growth and I respect them for that. But I think the dangers to the ecosystem of those same investors going earl…”
Successful SaaS Startups Consistently Hit a Growth Plateau Around $15M ARR
“We looked at all the data of our companies over a decade. Even the successful ones hit this thing that we call the growth plateau. Around fifteen million ARR, you can see in the data, and again, these are the successful companies that made it through. They hit…”
Sales Leaders Need Past Quota Experience of 25x Your Current ARR
“55% of those hires not only were successful, they made it all the way past a hundred million ARR. If you hire somebody who had less than 25 times your current ARR in terms of their quota responsibility, 44% didn't even make it out of the early stage. They didn…”
Predictable Growth and NDR Rank as Top SaaS Valuation Drivers
“We looked at all the publicly traded SaaS companies and did a regression analysis of what are the key drivers of your valuation and your valuation multiple. And this is actually the answer in order. Revenue growth, probably not surprisingly, but not just growt…”
Doug Pepper: Median SaaS Plan Attainment Fell From 99% to 69%
“Q one, the medium was 99% hit their plan. I've never Q two, yeah, 87%, Q three, median, 69%.”
Doug Pepper: Median SaaS Growth Rate Fell From 83% to 48%
“The median growth rate was about 83% last year across a very wide range of companies that we track. This year, that's degrading all the way to 48%.”
Pepper: Only 5% to 10% of Iconiq Portfolio Beat Raised 2022 Targets
“Roughly my guess is less than 10, maybe five have raised their plan for this year and are beating that raise plan.”
Pepper: Most 2021-Funded Companies Should Eventually Grow into Valuations
“I think over time, given their large balance sheets, most of those companies should be able to grow into their valuation over time.”
Pepper: Down Rounds Are Not Fatal and Founders Should Accept Them
“Down round isn't the end of the world. Look at our public companies. They're all down and they're surviving and it's not ideal, but you can celebrate having raised a prior round at a really low cost to capital. And if you have to do a down round and move forwa…”
Pepper: Well-capitalized market leaders should accelerate in downturns, not cut burn
“There's going to be some that are market leaders that are performing really well, that have three years of capital that you say, let's hit the gas and separate from competitors. There might be others that are having a tougher time that don't have two years of …”
Pepper: Growth VCs Mistakenly Assumed Every Startup Could Become a Decacorn
“The big mistake that the growth stage investors made over the last couple of years pivoting off of what you just said was not that we thought everything could be a unicorn. It's that we thought everything could be a Decacorn. I think that this environment is p…”
Pepper: SaaS Valuations Will Fall in 2-4 Quarters as Founders Need Capital
“I think it's going to take two, three, four quarters. For those companies that raised in early or mid 20, 21 to need to come back and there will come a time where they need capital and the pendulum will swing from, you know, purely power on the part of founder…”
Pepper: LPs will allocate less to VC and prioritize re-ups
“Those marks are going to be tough in the next couple of quarters. So yes, I think like all of us, LPs are reassessing the environment, trying to figure out what to do, And my guess is that they'll do what many others are doing, which is retrench a bit. And my …”
Founder-Led Sales and Early Adopter Pull Run Out at $15M ARR
“Founder selling works really effectively at the early stages. You start to run out of juice of that around fifteen million ARR, and then especially with great products, there's always pull from initial early adopters, and again, that runs out, and the key is t…”
Organize Board Meeting Sales Charts by Manager to Reveal True Performance
“Those salespeople, those individual contributors are really only as good as the managers, the leaders that report to them. And so when we look at those charts in board meetings, we organize them by the managers because some really interesting patterns come in.”
Appearances (3)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| How to Scale Go-to-Market Through IPO with ICONIQ Growth's General Partners | Nov 30, 2023 | 17m |
| Accel, Iconiq & Salesforce Ventures: "Where Venture Is Right Now: Gritty & Much Harder" at | Dec 2, 2022 | 10m |
| Doug Pepper, GP at Iconiq + Jason Lemkin of SaaStr: "Where Venture Is Right Now" | May 6, 2022 | 22m |