The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6,451 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Do not hire people who complain about burnout
“Lazy people always say they're burnt out... But the people that complain about burnout, I think deserve a scarlet L burned into their forehead and don't hire them.”
SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will exceed all past tech IPOs combined
“We're going to see three trillion dollar plus IPOs over the coming months. It's never happened before. The value of SpaceX plus Anthropic plus OpenAI will be more than all the other tech IPOs combined ever.”
Lemkin: Four Upcoming Tech Mega-IPOs Will Eclipse All IPOs Since 2000
“SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, we'll add in Databricks, we'll have Arsan, one of the co-founders here in about half an hour after this. That's going to create more market value, more value, and more wealth than every other IPO since 2000.”
Lemkin: A $100B Startup Acquisition Will Occur in the Next 12 Months
“I bet there'll be a hundred billion dollar startup acquired in the next 12 months.”
Lemkin: Anthropic Will Reach $50B in Revenue in Four Years
“Anthropics revenue is like nothing we've ever seen. Okay. It'll be at fifty billion in less than four years or four years plus or minus.”
Anderson: Filevine refuses to sell to customers who reject AI products
“We no longer sell to customers who won't buy the AI products.”
Queener: 75% of App Software Companies and 50% of Categories Will Disappear
“75% of all applications offer companies that you see today are going to disappear. And 50% of all applications, software categories are going to disappear.”
Benioff: Microsoft's Partnership With OpenAI Will Turn Into Direct Competition
“Microsoft is a company that wants to own it all, control it all. If they see a hot company or a hot startup, they ask themselves, hey, why is that not in our world? And in the case of they, usually they like To either try to feign an acquisition and then based…”
Conrad: Deel and Remote rely on third-party payroll systems country by country
“Companies like Deal and like Remote actually have not built underlying global payroll or payroll really of any kind. And so those companies are sort of secretly running on Other payroll systems country by country.”
DoNotPay aims to replace all lawyers and make the law free
“What we say is we want to replace all of the lawyers and make the law free, but it's not political.”
Lee: VC Board Member Withheld Tough Feedback to Protect LP Fundraise
“I called the board member, and I was like, hey, what's your feeling about how this, like, what kind of coaching are you giving the team about how things are going? It feels like things are off, and we are not doing the things we should be doing. And he was lik…”
Barrett: Silicon Valley overwhelmingly operates on selling to a bigger sucker
“There's like, build a viable business which you care about things like profit margin, things like this, or you just sell to a bigger sucker. Overwhelmingly, Silicon Valley is based upon the latter of those, and like, the reality is at no point relevant in actu…”
Reina: ElevenLabs set a 20x quota-to-base ratio with uncapped commissions
“The entire logic was very simple. It's like, look, if you want to have a base salary of a hundred K, you're going to need to bring two million dollars in revenues every single year, right? You have uncapped commissions. It's like OTE out of the gate is going t…”
Lemkin: ServiceTitan terminated Podium integration impacting 1,000 shared customers
“That worked great for years until Service Titan shut them off the other day, shut them off after all these years with a thousand joint customers.”
Lemkin: Highest-usage SaaS customers often have the strongest incentive to leave
“And the folks with the highest usage may actually have the most incentive to leave. It's not a clear correlation to success, right?”
Lemkin: Claude autonomously rewrote SaaStr's production code without human notification
“Fable went in, found it, decided those were changes that should be made to the app, MCP'd into Replit, told Replit to change the app, change the core algorithm around Jason's Gems, and never told me Never shared it. Never did anything. Did all of this autonomo…”
Lemkin: SaaStr Is Dropping Adobe Marketo, Calling It Their Worst Vendor
“So our most expensive vendor gone, not renewing toxic threatened us, never helped us. Worst piece of software and the two by two worst and most expensive Adobe Marketo.”
Higgsfield Reached $300M ARR in 11 Months
“It took us maybe 11 months to get to 300. Now it's bigger than that.”
AI Creatives Are the Only Way to Capture Mobile App Attention
“Especially when it comes to mobile apps. AI-generated ad creatives are absolutely necessary. This is the AI-generated creatives is the only way to get people attention, because there is a strong novelty effect to that, and we pay a lot of attention to that.”
Lemkin: The job market for average computer science graduates has been devastated
“There's no need for the most part, for a B tier. B level grade CS engineer. It's been devastated, right?”
Lemkin: Cerebras is going public at $40B with two Middle Eastern customers
“Like Cerebus is going public, I think today at like a forty billion dollar market cap. It has some interesting customers, but basically it only has two customers today in the Middle East that you've never heard of.”
Tavakoli: Existing valuable software monopolies will be broken within 24 months
“I think any industry that is highly valuable, that has a monopoly today, Will not have a monopoly, 12 to 24 months from now, because.”
Lemkin: A Generation of Operations Roles Will Never Be Hired
“I mean, for us there, so there'll be a whole generation of these people that are just never hired. There may be some folks that are laid off. I, and I think more commonly they'll just be slowly managed out and just replaced with agents.”
Lemkin: Idle Capacity Will Be the Biggest Issue With AI Agents
“The biggest issue we're going to have going forward is our agents are going to get so good. They sit idle all day long. They don't have enough work.”
Lemkin: SaaStr Replaced $500K in Staff With $257 in AI Agents
“We replaced 500,000 dollars worth of employees with 257 dollars worth of agents, but the productivity is higher.”
Lemkin: Companies Will Abandon Employee AI Reskilling by Year-End
“To be direct, I think by the end of this year, we're going to give up on reskilling. I think folks are going to stop pretending they can reskill folks that are not going to be able to make the jump to the agentic age.”
Lemkin: Customers Prefer High-Performing AI to Mediocre Human Account Managers
“Customers will prefer, prefer a great eye to a mediocre human. They'll prefer a great eye that solves their problem today, that knows the answer, to someone that has to get an engineer and an appointment to you next week, that doesn't know, that says I'm just …”
Masad: Only software agents work; sales and marketing agents do not
“The only agents that work are software agents, marketing agents, sales agents, all that haven't really worked very well.”
Lemkin: SaaStr wants to hire a human reporting to its AI agent
“We want to hire a human. To report to our AI VP of marketing.”
Claims That Software Engineering or Design Are Dead Are False
“This is like what people say, oh, engineering is dead or design is dead. All of that I think is a lie because we had never had more need for experienced incredible engineers that are going to push the boundary of what's possible to create with software, to ena…”
Lemkin: SaaStr no longer needs junior marketers due to AI agent
“Is it a partial replacement for junior marketers? Yeah, we don't need any.”
Lemkin: Pre-AI B2B SaaS companies are becoming "tragedy apps"
“And it just, I think most of the old SAS companies, the pre AIB to be players have become tragedy apps.”
Lemkin: Figma feels like 'grandpa software' despite top-decile revenue growth
“This is why now Figma feels like grandpa software. That's the thing. It feels like grandpa software. It feels like grandpa software and you don't, the NRR is still high. The company is still growing at top decile rates, but who wants to buy new stuff from gran…”
Lemkin: Clerk Is 'Mind-Numbingly Hard to Use' and Most Frustrating App
“Probably the most frustrating app I've used is clerk, right? For authentication on replica. It's just. Mind-numbingly hard to use.”
Mooney: Mangomint shuns Salesforce opportunities for account-level custom workflows
“You know, we could go into many paths here, but to the point where in Salesforce, I don't even use opportunities. I said that to a RevOps leader last night, and he just about keeled over. But you know, I realized for an organization like mine, our sales cycle …”
Lemkin: Buyers have zero interest in profitable pre-AI B2B SaaS companies
“These B to B companies, pre AI ones at fifty million, a 100,000,200 1,000,800 million, no one wants to buy them. It doesn't matter that you, hooray, you got profitable. Thank you. That means you're not going bankrupt. You have not solved your existential probl…”
Lemkin: AI will eliminate middle-tier tech jobs while elites amass unprecedented wealth
“We're gonna enter this weird world where the best VCs are gonna make money like we've never seen before, right, and the best engineers, and then, you know, the middle is gonna have no jobs.”
Lemkin: SaaStr replaced every departing employee with an AI agent
“Basically anyone that left our tiny team, we replaced them with an agent.”
Adams: Companies must part ways with a third of staff for AI
“Like a third of your company, you need to part ways with them. They're not fit for this new world. They don't want to build the same way you want to build. They don't like fast, crazy fast pace. They don't like chaos.”
Adams: Traditional seat-based SaaS and CRUD GUIs make no sense post-AI
“Most SaaS companies sold seats. These are seats that humans sit in. Those humans use some kind of GUI, some CRUD type tasks to achieve some outcome. None of these things make sense anymore, right? None of these things make sense. There's no seats in a post AI …”
Adams: Intercom mandated all product designers ship code or leave the company
“We said every designer is now shipping code to production. It is now part of your job. If you don't like that, We had a great run, but we should part ways and you should go somewhere where designers don't have to ship code.”
Lemkin: AI agents outperform mid-pack sales reps and SDRs
“Our AI agents are better than a mid pack AE or SDR or BDR better than a mid pack. Not maybe not mid packet owner. But I've been doing this for a while. Better than the mid pack people I've worked over in my career. Not better than the best.”
Lemkin: Average GTM sales jobs are in terminal decline
“These mid pack jobs, they're just in terminal decline in GTM and you should be aware of it. They're in terminal decline. We won't need the mid now there will be pockets.”
Lemkin: Half of HubSpot's Partner Agencies Are Obsolete
“And HubSpot hasn't figured this out with his AI training. That's why I'd like basically half of HubSpot's agencies are obsolete.”
Anderson: SaaS incumbents should monitor API traffic and copy successful AI features
“The AI traffic is going to reveal something to you. You will review, reveal promising areas for new development. You will all of a sudden see very early on. Which products are gaining traction, and you should 100% copy those products. You should copy those pro…”
Lemkin: Most SDRs and qualifying BDRs will be eliminated by 2026
“And I really think most SDRs will die next year, but the meat, and I know we throw around these terms differently. The BDR that sort of smarmily qualifies you that that's going to die. Like we just, there's no need for that with these tools.”
Ibarra: AI-native GTM agencies are selling snake oil
“There's no agency that already knows how to do this. There's no, maybe there's a few like ester people at orgs that you can try and steal. But outside of that, I wouldn't, you know, buy the snake oil of, oh, we're an AI native agency and we know how to do GTM …”
Lemkin: Top AI companies have mediocre sales reps who misunderstand their products
“Some of the very best AI companies across the globe, not just any ones we're talking about, the best ones I know have really mediocre sales teams that do not understand the products they're selling. They just don't understand. How AI coding tools work and how …”