The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 699 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Anthropic Will Reach $50B in Revenue in Four Years
“Anthropics revenue is like nothing we've ever seen. Okay. It'll be at fifty billion in less than four years or four years plus or minus.”
Conrad: Deel and Remote rely on third-party payroll systems country by country
“Companies like Deal and like Remote actually have not built underlying global payroll or payroll really of any kind. And so those companies are sort of secretly running on Other payroll systems country by country.”
Lemkin: ServiceTitan terminated Podium integration impacting 1,000 shared customers
“That worked great for years until Service Titan shut them off the other day, shut them off after all these years with a thousand joint customers.”
Lemkin: Cerebras is going public at $40B with two Middle Eastern customers
“Like Cerebus is going public, I think today at like a forty billion dollar market cap. It has some interesting customers, but basically it only has two customers today in the Middle East that you've never heard of.”
Lemkin: Blended VC rolling internal rates of return are negative
“Everyone is full of shit in venture on Twitter. Oh, I'm all my investments are so great. I'm such a genius. I own point. Oh, one percent of this unicorn. I made so much money, but the real IRRs, when you blend it all together, they're negative.”
Lemkin: Marc Benioff Is Repeating His Past Mistake by Cutting Sales
“I mean, Mark Benioff in his book wrote his biggest mistake in the last downturns was cutting sales. And what did he just do? Cut sales. So we're all, he's making them, he's making the same mistake three times.”
Lemkin: SaaS giants like Zendesk and Intercom offer shitty phone support
“Even support companies do shitty support, and I go on, and I play, I go on to all the leaders, the, I, okay, does, do all the leaders in SaaS, do the Zendesk and the intercoms, and do they answer their phone and say, none of them do either, right?”
Butterfield: Microsoft Teams is limited to 5,000 users and 200 channels
“It's limited to 5000 people per instance and critically only 200 channels. And if you want to add a 201st channel, you have to hard delete one of them without the whole history.”
Higgsfield Produced a Full Cannes Film in Three Weeks With 10 People
“So for example, this in a week, we are going to present full feature movie in Ken, and we are doing that to showcase the possibility and opportunities unlocked with video AI. So roughly it took a team of 10 and maybe three weeks to accomplish that.”
Lemkin claims Replit grew from $2M to $500M revenue in two years
“Replit went from two million to five hundred million in two years.”
Lemkin: Global Software Spend Growth Is Accelerating to 15%
“That's going from 12.8% growth in all software spend last year, which was high. To 15% growth this year. It is accelerating.”
Lovable Crossed $400M ARR With Fewer Than 200 Employees
“We shared our figures at numbers in February that we've crossed over four hundred million dollars in ARR. And we're just shy of 200 people still, so we are operating as a very tiny team for a reason.”
Lemkin: No master orchestration product exists for multi-vendor AI agents
“We haven't found anyone that can integrate Asian force artisan qualified Monaco. Momentum. Attention. Attentive. Like we don't, there's nothing out there today, even with Tentay, which we built ourselves that at some magical API or other level can integrate ev…”
Lemkin: Salesforce Replaced Up to 4,000 Support Staff With Internal AI
“You know, Mark Benioff said, even at Salesforce, they're growing, they're adding more headcount in sales and marketing, but I think he's, I know the numbers, I think three or 4000 folks in support, they already replaced with AI and their own AI and support Cog…”
Lemkin: Replit will hit $250 million in revenue this year
“Look at Repli where we just did a whole SK with them. There's zero to two hundred and fifty million already this year.”
Lemkin: ElevenLabs will reach $300 million in revenue this year
“The tools are either so disruptive, like a cursor or replica or lovable or 11 labs will go from like almost nothing to three hundred million this year.”
Lovable Is Scaling Toward $100M ARR With Only 45 Employees
“Lovable getting to a hundred million with 45 employees.”
Lemkin: Replit's AI panicked and deleted SaaStr's entire database
“Replit said I made a catastrophic error. I deleted your database. I panicked. The AI said I panicked when it appeared empty and deleted everything, deleted thousands and thousands of entries.”
Jason Lemkin: Median VC returns trail the NASDAQ and fail to double
“The median returns of venture are not as good as NASDAQ. The average VC doesn't even double their investors' money and it takes 15 years.”
Lemkin: Digital AI sales engineers will soon join live sales calls
“I think A digital SE like this is Brian Halligan's digital one on Delphi is going to come to the zooms. The human it's a person is going to be there. And I brought this up and Dara said, give me another release and this will be full duplex. Like my AI and Bria…”
Benioff: Salesforce Will Demonstrate AI Agents Integrating Into Physical Robots
“And that fourth layer is going to be the robotic layer, but it needs the other three layers to operate because the agents are going to get manifested into these robots. So that will be a keep next step. And we'll see that by dream force. I'm sure.”
Choi: Software valuation multiples have zero correlation with revenue size
“Here we have a regression that charts AOR multiples today versus the implied AOR scale of the most recently reported quarter of a 139 different software companies. And I want to draw your attention to the r squared value of this regression... And so we see her…”
Lemkin: PagerDuty added only one net new customer over the past year
“PagerDuty is coming up on five hundred million in revenue a lot, but growth has slowed to 10%. But the toughest number, and there's more companies like this out there today than is discussed, zero percent net new customer growth. This last quarter, they announ…”
Lemkin: Enterprise AI drives all current growth in B2B cloud budgets
“All the growth in cloud budget and B to B budget is for AI. Some of it's sure for AI native platforms, some of it's for other things, but all this AI budget is basically in the enterprise. Okay. That's where you see the growth. It's all enterprise.”
Tunguz: Founders expect valuations to match 2022 and 2023 levels
“They expect their valuations to be the same as in 2023 and the same as in 2022.”
Lemkin: SaaS spending is accelerating, up 20% this year
“If you look at Gartner or anyone, SaaS spending overall is accelerating. It's up 20% this year, which is more than last year on both the percentage and of course, an absolute basis.”
Lemkin: Vista Equity Partners is writing its $3.5B Pluralsight investment to zero
“Vista, which is one of the two or three biggest folks that buy SaaS companies, Vista, Tomo Bravo, a few others, they bought Pluralsight. They're writing the entire 3.5 billion investment to zero.”
Lemkin: Most VC firms underperform the NASDAQ
“It is a brutal, terrible industry where if you actually saw the numbers, most VC firms underperformed NASDAQ.”
David Sacks: Seed-stage startup mortality rate will reach roughly 80%
“Well, I would say that the mortality rate on seed right now is very high. You know, I think it's probably going to be like, 80%.”
PLG Leaders Like Asana Do Not Have Lower Sales And Marketing Costs
“If you look at the PLG leaders in SAS and cloud, they're wonderful companies. But the Asana's and the others that they're their cost of sales to marketing isn't lower than the folks that are purely sales led.”
Zinman: Monday.com's SMB retention proved more stable than enterprise during the downturn
“In the last, You know, 12 months since the economy changed is that we actually found that our SMB budget was more stable than our enterprise segment. So the SMBs NRR, yeah, was actually more stable.”
Lemkin: Adobe Sign lost 50% market share after removing viral free conversion
“And when we, almost a week after I left after acquisition, that got ripped out of the product, the whole free thing, the whole free conversion. And because it didn't help anyone there, But then over the next three years, there may be a variety of reasons, mark…”
Lemkin: Thoma Bravo's latest fund is still at negative IRR
“Tomo Bravo is incredible, but their last fund is, is, it's J curve S, but it's still negative IRR.”
Lee: Series A valuations will reset to $20M-$40M pre-money
“Well, Series A's we're going to be back to eight to twelve million dollars, and Series A valuations will be back to 20 to 35, 40 pre. And B's will be back to a hundred pre, instead of four or 500 pre.”
82% of enterprises decide on software in six months or less
“82% of enterprises, a thousand employees or more, are saying, I don't need more than six months to make a decision.”
67% of buyers only engage sales after making a purchase decision
“Perhaps more startling, 67% of companies usually engage a salesperson after they've already made a decision.”
Jay Simons: Atlassian spends twice as much on R&D as on S&M
“We spend twice on R&D, you know, that, that we do in sales and marketing.”
Reina: ElevenLabs scaled from $0 to over $600M ARR in 41 months
“And when you look at the stats, for instance, we went from Zero to a hundred million dollars in ARR in 20 months. Then we went from a hundred to two hundred million dollars in another 10 months. Then we went from 200 to three hundred and thirty million in anot…”
Lemkin: Podium generated over $100M in AI agent revenue
“When Podium went, became agentic about a year half ago and crossed a hundred million of agent revenue, the agents for the same customers, for the same HVAC guys and other trades, the agent all of a sudden could do a lot more than get a lead.”
Lemkin: Twilio's growth rebounded to over 20% due to AI agent APIs
“And to me, Twilio is another example. It almost died. It's growing four percent. Now it's growing over 20% because the API worked with agents.”
The Coca-Cola Christmas Commercial Was Generated on the Higgsfield AI Platform
“We have seen many Olympic ads, Christmas ads, like Coca-Cola Christmas ad was generated on Hicksville.”
Lemkin: Cloudflare Laid Off 20% of Workforce Despite Crushing Financial Numbers
“And they did one of the first mass layoffs of a company doing really, really well. So they let off 20% of their workforce, even though they're crushing all their numbers.”
Lemkin: Palantir Accelerated to 85% Growth; Karp Projects Over 100%
“Palantir, going from 27% growth just two and a half years ago to 85% growth today. 85%. Alex Karp said in the last earning call he's projecting over a hundred percent growth at their scale.”
Lemkin: Replit and Lovable share similar size and growth rates
“So it's funny, as a case study, Lovable and Replit, like, they're arch and arch competitors. They're about the same size, same growth, same everything, same, but they started totally differently.”
Lemkin: Descript reached $50M in revenue before CEO stepped down
“But, and it just makes me sad because they got to fifty million in revenue. And it got hard. The CEO stepped down, gave the keys to his VP of product, left the company because it got hard.”
Lemkin: Benioff Stated Envy of Palantir's Deal Size and FDE Model
“When Mark Benioff came on the TwentyVC with me and Maureen Harry, he said, my number one wish, my number one thing I'm jealous of Palantir's is one, their deal size. But two, I wish I could give everyone an FDE before I had to charge them.”