The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 59 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 59 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs will exceed all past tech IPOs combined
“We're going to see three trillion dollar plus IPOs over the coming months. It's never happened before. The value of SpaceX plus Anthropic plus OpenAI will be more than all the other tech IPOs combined ever.”
Lemkin: A $100B Startup Acquisition Will Occur in the Next 12 Months
“I bet there'll be a hundred billion dollar startup acquired in the next 12 months.”
Lemkin: Sales Commission Rates Will Halve by End of 2026
“I actually think what's going to happen because of attribution is commissions are going to have by the end of next year. Because this is how the math is going to work. You're going to get credit for the It's not just PLG. You're going to get credit for Kyle's …”
Belsky: AI productivity gains will increase creative hiring, not decrease it
“And I believe that actually, when you get more ingenuity per person that you employ, the people on your creative team, when you get more possibility from each of them, you're gonna actually want to hire more of them. Look no further than engineers. Engineers h…”
Bialecki: Most businesses will deploy their own AI agent by year-end
“By the end of this year, I think most businesses are gonna have their own agent. They deploy either on their website or behind a phone number or through email or to chat with your Claude that you can just access.”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI and Anthropic Revenues Won't Match AI CapEx Until 2031-2032
“The stunning thing is it takes until 2031 or 2032 before
The revenue from those two companies surpasses the total capex.”
Lemkin: Anthropic and OpenAI Will Reach Trillion-Dollar Valuations
“Anthropic isn't topping out at a billion. OpenAI isn't topping at a billion. They're topping at a trillion.”
Lemkin: VC Dollars in 2026 Will Surpass 2021 Peak
“And again, I think 26 will be even bigger. So we'll surpass the dollars of 21.”
Clayton: Annual SaaS IPO capacity is capped at 20 companies
“And only 20 SaaS companies per year can actually make it public. We don't think this number is going to go higher than this anytime soon.”
Tunguz: Enterprise app counts will flatline while total software spend rises
“And so I think maybe what we see is application count stays flat or maybe even decreases, but the total amount of software spending increases because it's capturing some fraction of that labor spend.”
Riparbelli: Full Hollywood films will be laptop-creatable by 2027
“We said that in 10 years, it's gonna be possible to create a Hollywood film from your laptop, not needing anything else. That's 2017, and at current rate of progress, that wouldn't really surprise me. So I think we got the timeline sort of like ballpark right”
Revenue Growth Overtook Efficiency as the Top Valuation Driver in Q2 2023
“What you can see through kind of most of 22 last year was that efficiency went to the top. That's how companies were valued. And of course, now look at the very last point on the far right. Q two, 20, 23, it's flipped again and on top revenue growth.”
Binch: PLG Companies Will See Net Retention Rates of 150% to 300%
“I will submit that PLG product companies are going to start seeing 152 103 hundred percent NRR, because why? Because they're going to start on a lower price point as an entry, and they're going to expand up further beyond that.”
Pepper: 2022-2023 VC vintages will outperform 2020-2021
“Probably the best fun vintages are going to be 20, 22, 23, as opposed to 20, 21.”
Lemkin: Fifty active startup founders will raise nine-figure VC funds
“There's too many founders that are going to raise nine-figure funds while they're running their own startups.
And it used to be a bad sign for the startup, right?
And it used to be like, how could you do anything other than run your own startup?
But it doesn't…”
Lemkin: AI slide maker Gamma has reached $150M in revenue
“This is all Gamma does at a hundred fifty million revenue.”
Masad: Full AI labor automation will not happen in next two years
“There's still a lot of limits to this technology that humans are going to be filling a lot of gaps in the foreseeable future until we aren't, but I don't, I can't give you that timeline. What I'm certain is it is not in next year. It's not the year after”
Lemkin: Craft Ventures Puts 80% of New Capital Into AI
“I said, of your 3.5 billion dollars, how much of your new money is going into AI? I think he said 80%.”
Lemkin: SaaStr survey shows under 20% of sales reps hit 70% attainment
“I did a Saster survey of a couple thousand folks. I put it on Saster in the last week or two. You know, only like, only teens of folks are hitting 70% attainment.”
Bonzom: Fabrice Grinda Signed First 100 Term Sheets Without Reading
“Fabrice Grinder, he often do a deal just by one hour call, or even shorter, and he commit, and he admitted that I think his first Android term sheet, he didn't read anything. He just signed.”
Upwork CEO: 75% of Upwork's 2,000 team members are freelancers
“And today, fast forward, we're a public company. We have about 2000 team members. 75% of those team members are freelancers. They are distributed around the world. Our team is in 86 countries globally.”
Cursor Saw Immediate Revenue Uplift by Identifying Free Users via Clay
“Cursor they had so many free users using their product, didn't know who they were, and saw an immediate revenue uplift because now they knew who they were, they could convert them into revenue.”
Waste Management Uses Clay to Analyze Satellite Imagery of Trash Cans
“Waste Management uses Clay, actually, and they use Play because they, and this is a very custom, unique data point. They want to know who their customers are, so they use Google Maps to get satellite images, AI to analyze the images, to determine, like, what c…”
Lemkin: PagerDuty trades at 2x revenue with flat customer count for four years
“Pager duty missed its last quarter. Pager duty is doing just across five hundred million in ARR. It's worth one billion dollars, two times revenue. Now there's a bunch of things that happened there, but they, their customer count is flat, 15,000 something cust…”
Shen: Bessemer's initial investment memo gave ServiceTitan a 2% chance at $1B
“I remember way back in the day when we were at Bessemer, it's myself, Byron Dieter, and Tyler Goldberg. We wrote now this very famous memo about service sign. I think we put, what do we say, a two percent chance at a billion dollar outcome.”
Lemkin: Deel is growing 70% at an $800M run rate
“So here at the top down, this isn't all software or SAS revenue, but deal announced that. Eight hundred million is growing. 70% last week.”
BILL processes 1% of US GDP annually and $1T in five years
“One percent of GDP goes through bill. One percent every year. A trillion dollars has been moved on the platform in the last five years.”
Lemkin: Zscaler Has Seen No Downturn at $2.5B in Revenue
“Zscaler has seen no downturn at two and a half billion in revenue and cybersecurity.”
Lemkin: UiPath added zero net new customers in the previous quarter
“Growth is still good, but UiPath had no net new customers last quarter. No net new customers.”
Muralidharan: Expensify has maintained growth and cash positivity for five years
“And Expensify is a cash positive business. We're very proud of it. We've had growth and profitability for something like five years now.”
Rippling gifts $25 to high-NPS users who post on LinkedIn
“And what they do is they give an NPS survey At the end of that onboarding. So when I joined Founder's Fund, I onboarded to Rippling. And the NPS survey, I mark it, whatever I mark it, based off of my experience onboarding, I probably marked it a 10. And then I…”
Atlassian spends only 15% of revenue on sales and marketing
“We spend 15%, one to five percent of revenue on sales and marketing, roughly, mid-teens which is a fraction of any company that's in enterprise software of our size. And we spend, call it 35 to 40% on R&D.”
Lemkin: Algolia generates hundreds of millions and will IPO post-downturn
“The second one was Algolia, which is doing hundreds of millions and is worth three billion today, which will go IPO when we come out of this search as a service API.”
DigitalOcean Acquires Over 30,000 Self-Serve Customers Per Month
“We bring over 30,000 customers a month. In via self-serve, you know, think about that, you know, and sometimes I think about it like portfolio companies, which they had 30,000 customers total, you know, and this is what we're doing in a month.”
Betakure: 95% of top YC companies plan post-pandemic hybrid offices
“We just did an analysis of the top YC companies that they publish every year, the largest market cap coming out of YC in the history. 95% of those companies are going to have offices post-pandemic, and most of them will be hybrid.”
Bill.com transaction revenue has surpassed its subscription revenue
“If you looked at our quarter last quarter we have now surpassed our revenues. Subscription pricing revenue has now been surpassed by transaction-based pricing revenue.”
Bedecarre: San Francisco has lowest office occupancy of any major city
“Like the occupancy level in San Francisco is the lowest of any major city.”
Ibarra: Salesforce will integrate Qualified and Momentum by Dreamforce
“I will say the benefit of Salesforce. Buying qualified momentum is like eventually by probably Dreamforce, right? Those two things will be integrated into one. So we have like two less dashboards and I'll probably have one centralized one by October”
Lemkin: SaaStr Tripled Its Content Output Using AI
“What we've been able to do is triple our content output with AI.”
BILL consistently adds roughly 45,000 customers per quarter
“We've grown customers, right? And so that sense, we are immune. Like we keep adding customers roughly 45,000 a quarter. We've been doing that for a while. That's very consistent growth for us.”
BILL once reported 300% year-over-year revenue growth on an earnings call
“To be on a public earnings call and to be public and to say, we grew 300% year over year. That was a fun day. And I knew I'd pay the price later because you can't grow that fast forever.”
BILL's spend management product Divvy is growing roughly 30% year-over-year
“And the spend and expense platform that used to be Divi now built, it's growing exceptionally well. So, roughly, 30% year over year.”
Lacerte: Bill.com has 3.2 million network members
“The opportunity for us to take this 3.2 million network members and give them something that is a paying product.”
Okta's position dropped slightly in Gartner's Magic Quadrant as competitors caught up
“And last year we were like way up in the leader position. And this year we came down a little bit and the other competitors got, got around us and caught us a little bit in the quadrant and it was, everyone's bummed out when that happens.”