The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 979 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: Anthropic Will Reach $50B in Revenue in Four Years
“Anthropics revenue is like nothing we've ever seen. Okay. It'll be at fifty billion in less than four years or four years plus or minus.”
Conrad: Deel and Remote rely on third-party payroll systems country by country
“Companies like Deal and like Remote actually have not built underlying global payroll or payroll really of any kind. And so those companies are sort of secretly running on Other payroll systems country by country.”
Lemkin: ServiceTitan terminated Podium integration impacting 1,000 shared customers
“That worked great for years until Service Titan shut them off the other day, shut them off after all these years with a thousand joint customers.”
Lemkin: Cerebras is going public at $40B with two Middle Eastern customers
“Like Cerebus is going public, I think today at like a forty billion dollar market cap. It has some interesting customers, but basically it only has two customers today in the Middle East that you've never heard of.”
Lemkin: Most SDRs and qualifying BDRs will be eliminated by 2026
“And I really think most SDRs will die next year, but the meat, and I know we throw around these terms differently. The BDR that sort of smarmily qualifies you that that's going to die. Like we just, there's no need for that with these tools.”
Net Tech Hiring Is Now Negative in Austin and Miami
“SF, almost all the hiring and net hiring in tech is in SF. It's twice New York. And basically after SF in New York, there is no net hiring. It's net negative in Austin. It's net negative in Miami.”
Cabane: ChatGPT will drive 25% to 33% of traffic in nine months
“I believe we're going to a webless world. I believe GPT is going to be like a quarter to a third of the traffic and nine months from now, right?”
Lemkin: Blended VC rolling internal rates of return are negative
“Everyone is full of shit in venture on Twitter. Oh, I'm all my investments are so great. I'm such a genius. I own point. Oh, one percent of this unicorn. I made so much money, but the real IRRs, when you blend it all together, they're negative.”
Lemkin: All Top US Tech Companies Are Run by Asian/Indian Americans
“All the top US tech companies are run by Asian Americans or Indian Americans. All of them, right? Am I, are there any that aren't? AMD, Microsoft, Google, who am I missing?”
Lemkin: Marc Benioff Is Repeating His Past Mistake by Cutting Sales
“I mean, Mark Benioff in his book wrote his biggest mistake in the last downturns was cutting sales. And what did he just do? Cut sales. So we're all, he's making them, he's making the same mistake three times.”
Lemkin: SaaS giants like Zendesk and Intercom offer shitty phone support
“Even support companies do shitty support, and I go on, and I play, I go on to all the leaders, the, I, okay, does, do all the leaders in SaaS, do the Zendesk and the intercoms, and do they answer their phone and say, none of them do either, right?”
Butterfield: Microsoft Teams is limited to 5,000 users and 200 channels
“It's limited to 5000 people per instance and critically only 200 channels. And if you want to add a 201st channel, you have to hard delete one of them without the whole history.”
Higgsfield Produced a Full Cannes Film in Three Weeks With 10 People
“So for example, this in a week, we are going to present full feature movie in Ken, and we are doing that to showcase the possibility and opportunities unlocked with video AI. So roughly it took a team of 10 and maybe three weeks to accomplish that.”
Lemkin claims Replit grew from $2M to $500M revenue in two years
“Replit went from two million to five hundred million in two years.”
Lemkin: Global Software Spend Growth Is Accelerating to 15%
“That's going from 12.8% growth in all software spend last year, which was high. To 15% growth this year. It is accelerating.”
Lovable Crossed $400M ARR With Fewer Than 200 Employees
“We shared our figures at numbers in February that we've crossed over four hundred million dollars in ARR. And we're just shy of 200 people still, so we are operating as a very tiny team for a reason.”
Lemkin: No master orchestration product exists for multi-vendor AI agents
“We haven't found anyone that can integrate Asian force artisan qualified Monaco. Momentum. Attention. Attentive. Like we don't, there's nothing out there today, even with Tentay, which we built ourselves that at some magical API or other level can integrate ev…”
Lemkin: Mobile app creation quintupled in late 2025 due to vibe coding
“At the end of last year, just all of a sudden the number of mobile apps like quintupled at the end of last year because of vibe coding, and it's just starting.”
Lemkin: Salesforce Replaced Up to 4,000 Support Staff With Internal AI
“You know, Mark Benioff said, even at Salesforce, they're growing, they're adding more headcount in sales and marketing, but I think he's, I know the numbers, I think three or 4000 folks in support, they already replaced with AI and their own AI and support Cog…”
Lemkin: Replit will hit $250 million in revenue this year
“Look at Repli where we just did a whole SK with them. There's zero to two hundred and fifty million already this year.”
Lemkin: ElevenLabs will reach $300 million in revenue this year
“The tools are either so disruptive, like a cursor or replica or lovable or 11 labs will go from like almost nothing to three hundred million this year.”
AI-Native Burn Multiples Fall to 0.4x at $100M ARR
“At a hundred million ARR, the burn multiple falls to 0.4 X for AI native companies versus 1.6 for classic SAS companies. They're four times more efficient in adding ARR.”
Lovable Is Scaling Toward $100M ARR With Only 45 Employees
“Lovable getting to a hundred million with 45 employees.”
Lemkin: Replit's AI panicked and deleted SaaStr's entire database
“Replit said I made a catastrophic error. I deleted your database. I panicked. The AI said I panicked when it appeared empty and deleted everything, deleted thousands and thousands of entries.”
Jason Lemkin: Median VC returns trail the NASDAQ and fail to double
“The median returns of venture are not as good as NASDAQ. The average VC doesn't even double their investors' money and it takes 15 years.”
Lemkin: Digital AI sales engineers will soon join live sales calls
“I think A digital SE like this is Brian Halligan's digital one on Delphi is going to come to the zooms. The human it's a person is going to be there. And I brought this up and Dara said, give me another release and this will be full duplex. Like my AI and Bria…”
Benioff: Salesforce Will Demonstrate AI Agents Integrating Into Physical Robots
“And that fourth layer is going to be the robotic layer, but it needs the other three layers to operate because the agents are going to get manifested into these robots. So that will be a keep next step. And we'll see that by dream force. I'm sure.”
Choi: Revenue CAGR has zero correlation with post-IPO share appreciation
“Now this charts the same y-axis, but on the x-axis you'll see revenue growth compounded annually. And so the R spread here, you can see it's much more scattered, is 0.03.”
Choi: Software valuation multiples have zero correlation with revenue size
“Here we have a regression that charts AOR multiples today versus the implied AOR scale of the most recently reported quarter of a 139 different software companies. And I want to draw your attention to the r squared value of this regression... And so we see her…”
Lemkin: PagerDuty added only one net new customer over the past year
“PagerDuty is coming up on five hundred million in revenue a lot, but growth has slowed to 10%. But the toughest number, and there's more companies like this out there today than is discussed, zero percent net new customer growth. This last quarter, they announ…”
Lemkin: Enterprise AI drives all current growth in B2B cloud budgets
“All the growth in cloud budget and B to B budget is for AI. Some of it's sure for AI native platforms, some of it's for other things, but all this AI budget is basically in the enterprise. Okay. That's where you see the growth. It's all enterprise.”
Tunguz: Series A ticket size valuations increased 42% over two years
“In fact, valuations at Series A ticket sizes have increased 42% in the last two years.”
Tunguz: Founders expect valuations to match 2022 and 2023 levels
“They expect their valuations to be the same as in 2023 and the same as in 2022.”
Lemkin: SaaS vendors promise AI can cut 30% to 50% of staff
“Everyone in post sales, Salesforce, Intercom, Zendesk, Gorgeous, on and on. They are promising you can eliminate. 30 to 50% of your humans in support with AI. They're promising it today.”
Lemkin: SaaS spending is accelerating, up 20% this year
“If you look at Gartner or anyone, SaaS spending overall is accelerating. It's up 20% this year, which is more than last year on both the percentage and of course, an absolute basis.”
Lemkin: The Majority Of SaaS Companies Moved Customer Success Under Sales
“Churn zero did a survey gains. I did a survey. They're both on Saster. I'm sure hook would give you similar data. The majority of SAS teams have moved CS into sales, the majority.”
Lemkin: Vista Equity Partners is writing its $3.5B Pluralsight investment to zero
“Vista, which is one of the two or three biggest folks that buy SaaS companies, Vista, Tomo Bravo, a few others, they bought Pluralsight. They're writing the entire 3.5 billion investment to zero.”
Seseri: Klaviyo automating 700 roles with AI added $40M to bottom line
“We have seen a few green shoots, if you will, in this space, particularly, for example, what we saw with Klaviyo and the impact that they have had by bringing AI from a project siloed or customer interface type level usage to their core business, where they au…”
Lemkin: Majority of surveyed sales professionals secretly work multiple jobs
“I did a survey on LinkedIn a couple of months ago and asked like over 2000 sales professionals. The majority said they're working more than one job. The majority.”
Fonseca: GitHub Copilot is writing 50% of all code
“GitHub CodePilot is now writing 50% of code, and that's every other line of code to put that in perspective.”
Product Marketing Backgrounds Correlate Best With Head of Marketing Success
“And what we found is both from a commonality standpoint as well as a correlation with tenure and success, it's product marketing.”
Lemkin: Most VC firms underperform the NASDAQ
“It is a brutal, terrible industry where if you actually saw the numbers, most VC firms underperformed NASDAQ.”
David Sacks: Seed-stage startup mortality rate will reach roughly 80%
“Well, I would say that the mortality rate on seed right now is very high. You know, I think it's probably going to be like, 80%.”
PLG Leaders Like Asana Do Not Have Lower Sales And Marketing Costs
“If you look at the PLG leaders in SAS and cloud, they're wonderful companies. But the Asana's and the others that they're their cost of sales to marketing isn't lower than the folks that are purely sales led.”
Lemkin: Public SMB SaaS companies exclude their smallest customers from NRR reporting
“Almost all public companies that sell the SMBs, like exclude their smallest customers from NRR.”
Zinman: Monday.com's SMB retention proved more stable than enterprise during the downturn
“In the last, You know, 12 months since the economy changed is that we actually found that our SMB budget was more stable than our enterprise segment. So the SMBs NRR, yeah, was actually more stable.”
Lemkin: Adobe Sign lost 50% market share after removing viral free conversion
“And when we, almost a week after I left after acquisition, that got ripped out of the product, the whole free thing, the whole free conversion. And because it didn't help anyone there, But then over the next three years, there may be a variety of reasons, mark…”