“Here we have a regression that charts AOR multiples today versus the implied AOR scale of the most recently reported quarter of a 139 different software companies. And I want to draw your attention to the r squared value of this regression... And so we see here that the R squared value is 0.09, which is quite low. So there's essentially no correlation between valuation multiples in today's public markets and the size of the company.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading:
filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard
(the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Kathy Choi
AssertionContradicted
Choi: Revenue CAGR has zero correlation with post-IPO share appreciation
“Now this charts the same y-axis, but on the x-axis you'll see revenue growth compounded annually. And so the R spread here, you can see it's much more scattered, is 0.03.”
Kathy ChoiFeb 21, 2025▶ 13:27The Real Data on What it Takes to Go Big and Eventually IPO with Meritech Capital
PredictionHeld up
Choi: Public markets will likely value SaaS IPOs at 7x–11x ARR
“And you'll see that companies are trading between this seven times to 10, 11 times range, with the exception of 20 20 and 21. And this is also important to note because irrespective of what private markets are valuing you at today, public markets are still lik…”
Kathy ChoiFeb 21, 2025▶ 7:46The Real Data on What it Takes to Go Big and Eventually IPO with Meritech Capital
AssertionSupported
Choi: Share price appreciation strongly correlates with cumulative dollar growth
“On the left here, we see a regression that charts the share price depreciation from IPO to today versus how much revenue has increased in dollar amounts from IPO to today. And you'll see here that the R spread value is, 0.74, which is fight high and applying a…”
Kathy ChoiFeb 21, 2025▶ 13:04The Real Data on What it Takes to Go Big and Eventually IPO with Meritech Capital
AssertionSupported
Choi: Average ARR for SaaS IPOs has jumped to $300M–$500M
“Here we have the average ARR scale of companies at IPO quarter, and you'll see the tremendous increase from 2009, 2010, where companies were going public between 50 to a hundred million of ARR, And in today's markets, more recently, companies are in well over …”
Kathy ChoiFeb 21, 2025▶ 4:50The Real Data on What it Takes to Go Big and Eventually IPO with Meritech Capital
What-if
Choi: HubSpot generated $11B in market cap from post-IPO new products
“And they had added essentially eleven billion dollars of additional market cap value that wouldn't exist if it weren't for these new products.”
Kathy ChoiFeb 21, 2025▶ 14:46The Real Data on What it Takes to Go Big and Eventually IPO with Meritech Capital
AssertionPartly supported
Meritech: SaaS companies average 10 years from founding to IPO
“First, we see that on average, it takes companies about 10 years from founding to IPO. Here we have the average years to IPO hovering around that 10 year mark over this 15 year period.”
Kathy ChoiFeb 21, 2025▶ 4:20The Real Data on What it Takes to Go Big and Eventually IPO with Meritech Capital
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