Insight
Fonseca: AI application upstarts face severe retention challenges
“What we have seen, though, in the applications in Upstarts is that a lot of them are now facing challenges, and those challenges essentially boil down to one word, and that's retention. Retention has been tough for some of these, and there's a couple of reason…”
Assertion Partly supported
Fonseca: GitHub Copilot is writing 50% of all code
“GitHub CodePilot is now writing 50% of code, and that's every other line of code to put that in perspective.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fonseca: Incumbents will capture most early GenAI value
“A lot of the value, not all, but a lot of the value in this early platform shift is going to be captured with income by the incumbents. And naturally it's because they already have huge advantages on distribution data and workflows over their upstart competito…”
Insight
Fonseca: Only distribution, data, and workflows create GenAI moats
“But now TJ and I are pretty sure that only three things matter, and it's whether you can distribute, so it's distribution, it's your data, and it's the workflows. Only these three things matter.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Fonseca: Notion AI will likely reach $100M+ ARR in the near term
“And they've been able to price that in such a way that our guess is it'll probably be a hundred million Plus AR business in the near term for them, and they're charging essentially an upsell of seven to 10 dollars to be able to turn on Notion AI.”
Insight
Fonseca: Top generative AI startups sell value propositions, not AI buzzwords
“Some of the most interesting generative AI companies that I've met don't even talk about generative AI. They don't even mention it, but it's powering everything in the background, and what they're selling is just a value prop.”
Assertion Supported
Fonseca: AI patent filings in 2021 grew 30x over six years
“The number of patents filed in 20, 21 in AI was essentially 30 times the number that was published six years earlier.”
Assertion Supported
Fonseca: Notion launched its AI feature to 30 million users
“They turned this feature on to a user base of thirty million people, including their very much growing enterprise practice.”
