Venture capital, startups and investing, on tape.

Every prediction, opinion and bold claim from Founder's Journal: extracted from the transcript, verified against the tape, checked against cited public sources, playable at the exact moment it was said.

817 insights581 assertions319 disclosures160 opinions94 predictions11 what-ifs

Recently on the ledger full ledger →

Opinion
Creating wealth for employees delivers more social justice than DEI hiring initiatives
“Good people don't want to be hired because they fit a demographic. We made a lot of money for our people, and we delivered more social justice this way than we ever could have pursuing other people's ideas of that.”
Alex Lieberman Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 20:32 Amp it Up
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lieberman: Software and Agency Valuation Multiples Will Converge in AI Era
“And also, why do I think that software and agency multiples will converge? Short answer is I believe the business is The agency business will look a lot better in the age of AI.”
Alex Lieberman May 12, 2025 ▶ 5:24 Agencies are wildly underrated
Assertion Supported
Rippling sues competitor Deel alleging a corporate espionage scheme
“Parker Conrad, the CEO of Rippling, the HR software platform, tweeted on March 17th that Rippling was suing its competitor deal for running a corporate espionage scheme and stealing trade secrets from Rippling for months.”
Alex Lieberman Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 3:21 $12 billion startup caught spying
Assertion Supported
Rippling caught a Deel insider using a honeypot Slack channel
“Rippling's general counsel sent a legal letter to three Deal executives mentioning a fake Slack channel called D Defectors that had supposed reputationally damaging information about Deal. Prior to general counsel sending this letter, the channel did not exist…”
Alex Lieberman Mar 19, 2025 ▶ 8:12 $12 billion startup caught spying
Insight
B players destroy companies because their mediocrity is tolerated, unlike C players
“Organizations are not getting killed by their C players. Everybody knows who they are, and performance eventually is addressed. The people who kill organizations are your B players. It's the scourge of the enterprise, because there are many, and they are gener…”
Alex Lieberman Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 16:24 Amp it Up
Opinion
Modern companies coddle employees and prioritize internal satisfaction scores over customer success
“Performance-centric thinking like this doesn't trend well with prevailing attitudes. Companies have become more fixated on their employees' MPS scores than their customers. They coddle their people. They get caught up in things that have nothing to do with the…”
Alex Lieberman Mar 1, 2024 ▶ 22:04 Amp it Up

How the calls resolved the full record →

Assertion Supported
Lieberman: Elizabeth Holmes went to prison for defrauding investors, not patients
“Yes, claims about health care solutions warrant scrutiny beyond whether or not rich investors get their money back, but Holmes wasn't convicted for defrauding patients. She's going to prison because she ripped off George Shultz, not because her bogus blood tes…”
Alex Lieberman Feb 14, 2024 ▶ 11:06 Visionary vs. Fraud
Assertion Contradicted
Lieberman Cites Stat Claiming Business Coaches Outnumber Business Owners
“I actually read a stat recently that there are now more business coaches than there are business owners, which is absurd.”
Alex Lieberman Jul 19, 2023 ▶ 5:11 Why I Would Invest In These Startups
Assertion Supported
Google Apps Launched with Simple $50/Employee/Year Pricing Against Microsoft
“We offered one price of 50 dollars per employee per year compared to the wacky, twenty-page price list Microsoft would drop on you.”
Alex Lieberman Feb 12, 2024 ▶ 13:12 Momentum is Everything
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pujji predicts SVB uninsured depositors won't see funds for 3-6 years
“People have told me three to six years, like, we're not going to see that money for three to six years.”
Jesse Pujji Mar 13, 2023 ▶ 20:32 Silicon Valley Bank: What Happened and Why

Open predictions the full timeline →

840days Lieberman: Twitter will not 5x revenue to $26.4B by 2028 Alex Lieberman · prediction date: 2028-12-31 2395days Ankur Jain: Commercial Moon mining and transport will occur in 5-10 years Ankur Jain · prediction date: 2033-04-04 2444days Figure aims to ship one million humanoid robots within 10 years Brett Adcock · prediction date: 2033-05-23 2444days Figure hopes to test elderly care robots in homes within 10 years Brett Adcock · prediction date: 2033-05-23

Track records all people →

Ordered by full support rate, then by supported count. Minimum three resolved. Partly supported claims count as resolved but not as fully supported, same as everywhere on the ledger.

PersonEpsStatementsSupportedPartly supportedContradictedFull support rate
Ankur Nagpal 3 34 10 0 0 100%
John Gagliardi 1 8 4 1 0 80%
Urien Timmer 1 15 7 1 1 78%
Brett Adcock 2 35 3 0 1 75%
Brian Scudamore 1 14 3 1 0 75%
Jason Fried 2 25 2 1 0 67%
Tyler Denk 1 33 2 1 0 67%
Steve Gatina 1 12 2 1 0 67%

From the Wisdom Wall all quotes →

“the only thing in common among successful founders that I've worked with, funded, uh, interacted with is they have one comparative advantage with the rest of the world where they're in the top one…”

“if you're the most tenacious person in the world, if you, if you talk to that person's mother, they can probably give you examples from the time that that person was five years old. Um, and if they,…”

“And I think the obvious benefit that companies get from partnering with a creator or someone who has audience is getting more customers. But I would actually argue that is like the least exciting…”

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