The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 94 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 7 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lieberman: Software and Agency Valuation Multiples Will Converge in AI Era
“And also, why do I think that software and agency multiples will converge? Short answer is I believe the business is The agency business will look a lot better in the age of AI.”
Lavingia: AI will enable 1-hour workdays generating $800 hourly value
“I want to get Gummer to a place where the average person works like an hour a day. Maybe they make like 800 dollars an hour but they work like an hour a day. They're producing an hour, you know, 800 plus dollars of value. They're assisted with AI to write thei…”
Adcock: Everyone Moving Fast at OpenAI Is Going or Gone
“Everybody that's moved fast at OpenAI is gonna go, or is gone. Like, and they'll be left with folks that move slow, want to think about safety and all this stuff”
Adcock: OpenAI Will Suffer Unrecoverable Speed and Brand Damage
“And now open AI is going to have a
Massive issue with speed and brand and everything else, and it's going to be unrecoverable.
They're never going to be a recover from what happened.”
Humanoid robots will not displace labor near-term due to massive shortages
“I think in like the near and medium case, we're really not going to be displacing that much labor. I think what we're seeing every day we're walking into a warehouse or manufacturing a retail scenario, they have a tremendous amount of unemployment. The turnove…”
Lieberman: Software Recurring Revenue Quality Will Decline
“And so I think what was typically considered to be a more quality recurring revenue stream in software products is going to be less true than it's ever been.”
Lieberman: AI consultancy Tenex can reach $100M in annual agency revenue
“I think Tenex just as a, an agency business can be a hundred million dollar a year business because I view the opportunity for AI transformation to basically be the GDP of the United States.”
Lieberman: Companies will pay top creators as much as executives
“Individual content creators should be the highest paid people in a content org. I believe even though we are in an age of content abundance, the percentage of content that is truly exceptional is not increasing at the same rate. It is really hard to create tru…”
Adcock: A Board Coup Will Never Happen to Altman or Me Again
“Like this will never happen to Sam ever again. This problem that we're talking about here will never happen to me going forward again.”
Lieberman: 99% of creator businesses will fail without product focus
“I also think that 99% of creator businesses will fail, not because I'm bearish on the creator economy or creators. I'm actually hyper bullish on them, but I just think a lot of creators are going to launch businesses as a short term cash grab. They're not goin…”
Timmer: Equity rally driven by P/E expansion is ending
“If that earnings pivot comes and that earnings recovery happens, then the market can continue to advance on the basis of rising earnings, but the phase where it rises purely on the P.E. Going up, that, I think, is, is now ending, and I think, you know, in the …”
Billions of humanoid robots will be manufactured to solve labor shortages
“We think there's an opportunity to manufacture millions and ultimately billions of robotics to help with the world, and we think that's going to have, like, very substantial impact on the economy.”
Figure aims to ship one million humanoid robots within 10 years
“I hope within the next, you know, 10 years, we can ship at least a million robots into the world.”
Lieberman: ChatGPT plugins will be worth multiples of Shopify
“Shopify is a sixty billion dollar company right now. I think OpenAI is thirty billion. You would have to think that the plugins to ChatGPT, which are gaining some popularity now as they're opening it up, is going to be multiples of that.”
Pujji: OpenAI will crush thin horizontal wrapper startups
“I think one of the challenges people to be careful of when building on top of open AI is like, if your solution is too horizontal, they're eventually going to eat your lunch.”
Medeiros: E-commerce brands with under 70% gross margins might die
“I think in general though, for e-commerce now, you have to have really fat margins to exist. And to survive. Like anybody with under 70% is gonna, they might die.”
Medeiros: Mini Katana will reach one billion monthly views in 2023
“What we're doing is we're going to get to a billion views a month this year, but we're optimizing that to be converting track, like converting views.”
Pujji: Vertical media will become the dominant internet format in 2023
“I think I predict if we're right about Kahani that sometime this year, it's going to become a must have thing that your e-com site has tons of vertical media integrated into it to have the right rich experience that a user demands. But I think it's going to ha…”
Lieberman: Creator economy venture funding will dry up in 2023
“Creator economy, economy funding is going to dry up this year.”
Lieberman: Musk will step down as Twitter CEO by end of 2023
“Elon will no longer be the CEO of Twitter by the end of 20, 23, but Twitter as a platform will be thriving.”
Lieberman: Twitter will not 5x revenue to $26.4B by 2028
“I just think that it is going to take more than Call it, let's call it five years to five X revenue, given they haven't even really proven that they can scale one revenue stream, let alone what I believe will need to be multiple to get it to twenty six billion…”
Lieberman: AI Will Enable Testing New Businesses From a 20-Minute Quiz
“I ultimately think within entrepreneurship generative AI is going to make entrepreneurship significantly faster, meaning that the speed to be able to start and test a business is gonna go down, like, by multiples. So I think the cost of entrepreneurship came d…”
Lieberman: Next Procter & Gamble will be a creator-led brand holding company
“So the whole thesis here is that I believe the next Procter & Gamble is going to be a holding company of creator first or creator led brands.”
Lieberman: AI Will Give Agencies Software-Like Margins and Operating Leverage
“AI is going to have a massive impact on the margins of agency businesses long term. As this technology, being AI, lowers the cost of intelligence, agentic workflows that support smaller agency teams will start giving these businesses the type of leverage that …”
Lieberman: AI Will Create a Massive Oversupply of Niche Software
“Like the oversupply of content on the internet, you will have an oversupply of software that is, one, more specific and niche than it's ever been, So there's going to be this whole long tail of software products that are created for the first time ever. Some, …”
Lieberman: Agencies will be ground zero for building new AI software
“I believe agencies are going to be ground zero for new AI tools and workflows to be built, and if agency owners are ambitious, long-term minded, and commercial enough, they can use the cash flows of their businesses to incubate non-agency products.”
Future white-collar value narrows to trust, taste, attention, and coordination
“Second, I also think the skills that make human white collar workers valuable will narrow to a few key traits that are uniquely human. The first is trust building through demonstrated empathy and service. The second is taste by having a deep intuition of what …”
Lieberman: Future Vision Pro generations could replace phones, computers, and TVs
“As technology continues to improve, I would not at all be surprised to see a future generation of this product that not only is mass market, but is delivering society a better new version of phones, computers, TVs, and gaming consoles in a single experience.”
Lieberman: Pre-recorded courses will remain the dominant online education format
“And so I think asynchronous education or prerecorded courses are not going away and they'll actually continue to be the most common way that people learn online.”
Pujji: The Plunge could be a $10M business generating $2M annual profit
“Cause I think it, I still believe what I've said to you every time, which is, is this going to be a hundred million dollar business? I don't know, but do I think it could be a ten million dollar business that made one to two million dollars a year? A hundred p…”
Ankur Jain: Commercial Moon mining and transport will occur in 5-10 years
“Now what we're doing with Moon Express is saying, how do you create the last mile solution to get, you know, whether it's satellites positioned or whether it's, you know, going to the moon and actually mining the moon for, you know, helium three or platinum an…”
Pujji predicts SVB uninsured depositors won't see funds for 3-6 years
“People have told me three to six years, like, we're not going to see that money for three to six years.”
Medeiros: Mini Katana's market opportunity is worth $1 billion
“I think it's a billion dollar opportunity. It's just a matter of like extending there.”
Medeiros: A company-owned VTuber will reach 10% of MrBeast's scale
“So, like, I don't, it hasn't happened yet, but I'm willing to bet that somebody will get to, like, 10% of Mr. Beast's level as a virtual character, and that a company owns, which is insane.”
Lieberman: Fenty will outlast Rihanna and lose association with her
“Like I believe Fenty will be known as a brand long beyond Rihanna and people won't associate it with Rihanna in the future. To do that, you really need to create a brand that's truly differentiated.”
Lieberman: Cohort-based courses will see declining interest in 2023
“And so I just think cohort based courses, we're going to hear a lot less talk about them in 2023.”
Pujji: Education Outside Top 100 Universities Will Be Reimagined by 2033
“So in 10 years, I think universities and the entire EDU system, other than maybe the top hundred universities, is going to be pretty reimagined.”
Pujji: Sam Bankman-Fried will go to jail
“And it's a good strategy. It's also like incompetence versus, versus shadiness or fraud. And I think it's a good, it's just a good angle, but he is going to go to jail.”
Codie Sanchez predicts a double-dip recession with rising inflation
“Well, I think we're in the first part of a recession. That'll probably be a double-dip recession and we'll actually see inflation come back up again. That's my assertion.”
Sanchez predicts Dwayne Johnson's tequila earns less than Witherspoon's media company
“The Rock will probably make less money on Terra Mana than Reese Witherspoon did on Hello Sunshine.”
Lieberman: Customers Will Not Care About Web3 Loyalty Badges
“I guess my initial reaction is I feel like part of this or the way that a lot of companies are going to apply this is going to be kind of stupid and customers aren't going to get excited about it. Like getting a badge after buying a pair of pants, I would be r…”
Lieberman: MrBeast's Feastables aims to become a Hershey-style candy conglomerate
“And I think the whole thesis is that they'll go from chocolate into literally becoming, you know, the next Hershey, like hold co of candy.”
Lieberman: Bitcoin Is the Front-Runner to Replace Gold
“Well, the view is that there is a very good chance that something is going to replace gold as a store of value. And if that happens, Bitcoin is the front runner to become the new gold, or as people refer to it, the digital gold.”
Lieberman: Bitcoin Is Unlikely to Become a Transactional Currency
“Some people believe Bitcoin also has the potential to become a medium of exchange or a currency where you can actually Go to a store and pay in Bitcoin. You can transact with people in Bitcoin, but given certain limitations to the cryptocurrency, I see that be…”
Lieberman: Software Profit Margins Will Suffer from Rising CAC
“This acceleration of competition is going to hurt software margins in two ways, I think. Retention and marketing. Acquiring users will be more difficult than ever before, which means that spending on paid marketing or employees to do organic marketing will bec…”
AI will equalize startup costs but create a business barbell
“I believe that AI is going to be the great equalizer for entrepreneurship, enabling more businesses to be created more cheaply than ever before, but it is also going to be the great de-equalizer, creating a massive barbell between businesses that fully embrace…”