Market

“It's the bubble of all bubbles.”

“No, the markets today is another buying opportunity for Google.”

“Coding, I think is like a much, much bigger market than anyone thought.”

“So if you believe in job destruction, like in any kind of very large scale way, you basically don't believe that markets adapt and you basically don't believe that some other company will emerge and say, I'm gonna just do this way better. And the way I'm going…”

“So, I'm still gonna look at all of this as rational, like, the rationalization of the markets, rather than the unraveling of the markets.”

“I'm not sure the market is actually bullish enough about electricity as a cornerstone of economic growth in the coming years, not to mention energy growth globally over the coming years.”

“I think that, first of all, the market is not overreacting. I think this is a huge change in what this means for security teams.”

“If you take all the winners and all the losers and sum them up, And don't take out any fees. You come up with zero. Every positive winner on the side of a trade has a loser on the other side of the trade. And so in aggregate, all investors together are the mar…”

“You can see that the market is really rewarding the sellers of the shortage, but it is not rewarding the buyers of the shortage because the profits are so high that the market is really focused on grabbing the short term profits.”

“I think there's no, you know, being modest and understated carries a lot of disadvantages. And I think you have to explain the role you Are in the market, so that there's some appreciation of what you do.”

“Historically, geopolitical crises hurt markets for about a month and then recover.”

“You will never hit a Goldman Sachs or a JP Morgan Tell you to get out of the market because it's ludicrously overpriced. Everybody knows today it's ludicrously overpriced, but no one can tell you, and they never will.”

“Then it started to get traction, and in the last 25 years took off, and is now more than half the market.”

“So my suspicion is that these impacts are shorter duration, but right now the market's having a little bit of post-traumatic stress, flashbacks to Afghanistan and Iraq, and wondering if we might be wandering into a quagmire.”

“What the market is saying to me is, the company is worth zero.”

“We as in, not us, but the X and sub stack, like independent researchers and analysts are really moving the markets.”

“Right now, if the market thinks you're just a bunch of lines of code, You're cooked.”

“Right now, if the market thinks you're just a bunch of lines of code, you're cooked.”

“No matter how hard you try, if you have picked the wrong market, if you have built the wrong product, There's no amount of hard work that's going to change the fact that the market doesn't want what you have.”

“Great founders don't build markets. They find markets that exist and then they quickly raid those markets.”

“It does feel like the markets are different in the last couple of years than they were a decade ago. If you asked me five years ago, are markets on a never ending trend towards efficiency? And is your job as a systematic investor It's going to get harder and h…”

“Effectively, the market is bound by the amount of things where humans can do something that models can't.”

“I have a sneaking hypothesis that I'm hesitant to say out here because there's a high probability I'm wrong, but I will say it. I feel like the market's becoming a little less efficient in certain areas, and I'll explain it.”

“Number three is Team. And oftentimes people will say, well, this team trump market. I actually think market always trumps team.”

“And what I think AI is particularly bad at, that people are trying to make, trying to use it for, that they're going to fail on, in my view, is when they try to use it for markets or politics.”

“I just think the most important thing in the market by far is AI kind of overwhelms everything else.”

“If you make money, like as INIAC or even as a VC founder, like, it's very important to not spend all this money, because you're, you have a limited time in startups to make money, I think, like, and put this money in the market”

“In the absence of that, you get a four trillion dollar tax increase and markets go a lot lower.”

“I'm making a bet. I'm actually making the bet it's higher. I'm all in on the market. Wow. I'm betting your twenty-twenty-six number, even though it's not really consistent with reversion to the mean for gains of public activities, right?”

“The market, which was down 20% for the year, has now bounced 20% in the last 20 trading days.”

“All I'm saying is that the market will now start to price this decay in.”

“Markets are now down 15% during this period since, ah, quote unquote, liberation day on April second.”

“I said at the end of January, early February, when you and I did the pot, I said, we've taken down our units of risk because there's just more uncertainty in the world. Discount rates need to come up. Multiples are coming down. And we did. And I would say over…”

“Anytime you've got government coming in and distorting a market, you're going to get weird stuff happening. And especially anytime you have government coming in and regulating how products are to be developed and used in a market, you're going to get really me…”

“One of the things that I think is very important as investors start to incorporate politics and geopolitics more and more into their toolbox is just to understand that while you as a human being really cares about absolute levels of risk, the market is not hum…”

“And so my guess is it's probably going to take a couple quarters before anyone starts to capitulate that maybe this is the new normal, particularly given how manic the market has kind of been and the decision seems to have been.”

“I'll assert that market is the most important factor in a startup success or failure.”

“We were semi-public from O seven to 12, and then public from 12 to 19, and people would say, how is that? I'd say, well, it's fine, except that every day you get a report card from somebody who doesn't know your business that well, called the market.”

“The markets are never efficient. In fact, very seldom do they ever trade at the actual value of securities. Either, most of the time, they trade above or below. Very seldom do they trade at the value.”

“And that's why I think you're not going to see tremendous flows into the market over the course of the next 60 days, because I think a lot of market participants are going to wait, right?”

“The market is extremely fragmented with 60% of operators being mom and pops.”

“The wind, which again is your market, is the most important factor that determines success with your business, but you cannot control it.”

“When you transition from analyst to portfolio manager, it's a big and often difficult transition, but one of the most important things that you learn is, as an analyst, your job is to know everything there is about an idea, and when your idea is not playing ou…”

“The market is not just all on one side of the boat. Everyone's in the bow of that boat, and it will not take much to potentially tip it and create a major risk off event.”

“Like if our firm says prices are really high today, sure, we could sit and do a little bit less, but we can't just exit the market for two years until things come back to normal. It's just not our business model.”

“And I really think that it's this inflation and higher rates Combined with higher valuations that could put a damper on at least the market in the first part of this year.”

“And what that is leading to is people in the markets also going extremely risk on, right? Simultaneously, everybody's going super risk on which could create the mother of all bubbles, which we've been praying for.”

“For a while, like, each 100 prices were, like, almost, like, going up, and then they were kind of still for a while, and then now they're, like, actually going down quite a lot, like, you know, what I'm seeing in the market, right?”

“What market is going to tell you is today's problem. The market is not going to tell you where the problem will be in the long term. And that is for us to decide and figure it out, right? So as a founder, you are making a bet on the market, you're making a bet…”

“If those tax cuts go away, you have to assume that will be a headwind, at least in the short term for the markets.”

“But remember, historically, rate cuts that are preceding a recession or fears about a recession are oftentimes sold, right? It doesn't cause the market to go up. It actually causes the market to go down.”

“The market determines how big a company can get. The founder determines how big the company will get.”

“So people, I think, have this idea of short term performance in the market, feeling like I can do this forever. Just like in Vegas, you can't do that forever and you will begin to lose. And the same thing is true in the market.”

“Even today, I think the markets are more efficient, I think, probably than the average active manager. I think they're hard to beat.”

“Markets are always going to get to a ridiculous level because that's the only way that they can find the boundaries of what other people can put up with.”

“As of this recording, which is February 1320, 24, we are a lot closer to the fundamental phase than the story phase.”

“You know, we think about markets being willed into being by a new subsidy coming into place, or a new support mechanism, but they're also willed into being by other mechanisms going away.”

“People wouldn't pay for an AI that's unaligned, doesn't do what you say, and is nefarious, right? They would pay for an AI that does, you know, is a good worker, let's say is aligned and is reliable, right? And if the, you know, the person or the company that …”

“When we look back 18 to 24 months from now, the market will probably be materially higher because there's just so much money on the sidelines, and that just continues to grow and grow and grow.”

“This is just a reminder that there's good reason to believe that market is more important than people or even product when thinking about the potential for success of a business.”