Opinion
Netflix functions as a utility button, not a brand with emotional equity
“The Netflix brand doesn't mean anything to anyone. The Netflix brand is the button that I push on my TV when I want to watch stuff. And sometimes it's great stuff, but if it's not great stuff, whatever. It whizzes by. I don't think one way or another about Net…”
Insight
Gilbert: Monopolies benefit society by generating cash flow for basic research
“There is a positive benefit to monopolies because they create the cash flows that fund these sorts of boondoggle basic research. A lot of the most important technologies that move society forward come out of these.”
Opinion
Meta AI's User Numbers Are Inflated by Accidental Instagram Searches
“That was complete garbage. That was people searching Instagram who accidentally hit a llama model that made some things happen, and they were like, oh, go away. I actually am just looking for a user.”
Opinion
Gilbert: Cambridge Analytica impacting the 2016 election is wildly oversold
“They had an incredible treasure trove of data that apps could slurp up in the early 20 tens, but the actual narrative of Facebook data that Cambridge Analytica had impacted election results is, like, wildly oversold.”
Opinion
Taylor Swift's Original Masters Are the Music Industry's Most Overvalued Asset
“There has never been a more overvalued asset in the music industry than the masters for Taylor Swift's original albums at three hundred million today. Not only is she actively devaluing them, but the whole industry is at complete peak for what people are willi…”
Opinion
Gilbert: 21st Century Fox Is Disney's Worst Major Acquisition
“But certainly it's the worst of the four big acquisitions, five if you include BamTech.”
Insight
Gilbert: Sports leagues will capture all long-term excess broadcasting profits
“So in the long run, if the main reason to subscribe to any given channel ends up being actually about the game content itself and not differentiated by stuff around the game, then the excess profits in the long term Will just be captured by the rights holders …”
Insight
Gilbert: Streaming Is Structurally Inferior to the Cable Bundle
“It's structurally a worse business, as you were just mentioning, than the old cable bundle where you just got checks. Consumers can cancel easily. They do so every few months. It's expensive to make The amount of content you need to make, especially now with t…”
Opinion
Gilbert: Iger Erred by Appointing Chapek for Peacetime
“Ultimately, I kind of think they just chose the wrong guy in Bob Chapek, and I think Iger's mistake in recommending Bob Chapek for the job was thinking that the company was about to enter a peacetime.”
Opinion
Keeping content exclusively on Disney+ severely limits Disney's downstream IP monetization
“So they do have Disney Plus. It does have a hundred and thirty million people subscribed, but a 130 is not 350. And so your content that you want to drive people to the parks and to merch is only reaching 40% of the people that it could if it were on Netflix, …”
Insight
Gilbert: Winning streaming services must offer broad, 'kitchen sink' content catalogs
“If you want to operate a streaming service that gets to scale, and if you're going to operate a streaming service, it has to get to scale since the fixed costs are so high. Then you must have a broad set of content. That is weird. That it must be a broad set o…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Extensive research uncovered zero evidence that Walt Disney was anti-Semitic
“I turned over every stone I possibly could on this company, and we spent, I don't know, the better part of the year so far researching this, and I found zero evidence of that.”
Insight
Passive indexing protects retail investors from their own destructive overactivity
“Passive index investing just lends itself better behaviorally. If you're in one of those funds to just saying, I know the market's up, I know the market's down, but whatever. I own the index. I've made my piece. Whereas if you are either the active manager try…”
Insight
Passive indexing reaching 95% of market assets would not break price discovery
“I think even if you had 95% passive, the prices are set by the marginal trader. Right. You don't need very many people in there arguing with their dollars about what something is worth to figure out what it's worth.”
Opinion
Vanguard represents the most extreme historical example of business counterpositioning
“I think this may be the most extreme example of counterpositioning ever. Bogle did something that was essentially non-economic. There's no economic incentive to create this company in the first place. Their ownership and fee structure was an advantage that can…”
Insight
Gilbert: Supercar Speed Is Irrelevant Like Watch Accuracy Post-Quartz
“I think the point I keep kicking around is much like the quartz crisis in the world of watches, speed is no longer relevant. I mean, the F-Eighty goes zero to 60 in 2.2 seconds. This is the supercar. This is the three to five million dollar car. The Tesla Mode…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gilbert: Networks will overpay for NFL rights until economics break
“I continue to think that networks are just on this treadmill where they're just going to keep paying more and more and more for NFL rights until is actually non-economic for them to do so, but then they'll be in so deep that it's pretty hard to recover from th…”
Insight
Gilbert: Media and podcasting outputs scale completely independently of inputs
“In the media business, in podcasting,
You can grow your audience, and thus your revenue, and thus your importance in the world.
All outputs can scale completely independently of your inputs.”
Assertion Supported
Studies reveal Coca-Cola is the world's number one ocean plastic polluter
“I was looking up studies recently, and the Coca-Cola company is the number one polluter globally of Crap in the ocean. Pepsi's very close behind all the big drink companies.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Google TPUs Are Only Scaled AI Chip Deployment Besides Nvidia
“They're a chip company with their Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs, which is the only real scale deployment of AI chips in the world besides Nvidia GPUs.”
Opinion
DeepMind Would Be Worth $500 Billion as an Independent Company
“This is an asset that Google owns today that, again, I think is worth half a trillion dollars if it's independent.”
Opinion
2017 Began a 5-Year Period of Google Failing on Transformers
“It is fair to say that 2017 begins the five-year period of Google not sufficiently seizing the opportunity that they had created.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Waymo Can Become a Google-Sized Business if Costs Drop
“You could see a path to a Google-sized opportunity for Waymo as a standalone company just through this analysis, as long as they figure out a way to get costs down to the point where they can run this as a large and profitable business.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AI Data Center Costs Are Over 50% Chips, Under 6% Power
“I've seen estimates that over half the cost of running an AI data center is the chips and the associated depreciation. The human cost, that R&D is actually a pretty high amount because hiring these AI researchers and all the software engineering Is meaningful.…”