Disclosure
Rosenthal: Acquired records nine hours of audio for every finished episode
“Well amazingly, shockingly, we tell you all all the time that we make, when we make an episode, we sit in our houses, in our studios, we record all day for nine hours, we turn that nine hours into three or four or five hours that you all hear”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Daniel Ek: Acquired reached over five million Spotify listening hours, tripling yearly
“On Spotify alone, you guys have now done over five million hours, and it tripled in the last year.”
Assertion Supported
Ek: Spotify had only a few million podcast listeners in 2019
“In 2019 you know, when we got into podcasts the world around podcast listening and Spotify, there was a few million people listening to this.”
Assertion Supported
Ek: Over 150 million people listen to podcasts on Spotify
“And today there's over a hundred and fifty million people listening to podcast on Spotify.”
Assertion Supported
Ek: German labels hacking Spotify to upload audiobooks prompted podcast expansion
“What happened in Germany is all the record companies started uploading audiobooks to the service. So they started hacking the system for all these other things, and when they ran out of that, they actually started uploading podcasts.”
Insight
Ek: Younger Consumers Care About Creator Presence Over Format Boundaries
“But I think younger consumers, especially, they don't know what the difference is. They just want to feel closer presence to the person.”
Insight
Ek: Social music works via shared co-listening, not passive friend-watching
“While I still think music is very social, I think what we got wrong in the product was this sort of notion that just seeing sort of what all of your friends are listening to may not be the sort of right social product. But if you instead sort of say like, I wa…”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Zynga drove over 10% of Facebook's revenue at IPO
“It was like north of 10% of Facebook's revenue at IPO was from Wazinga.”
Opinion
Daniel Ek: Mark Zuckerberg is the best learner I have ever seen
“Specifically from him you know, he's the, probably the best learner I've ever seen. You know, you can have a conversation with him about a topic, he may not know very much about it, and then the next time, he would know more than, I would say, most experts abo…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ek: Zuckerberg runs productive product review meetings with 15 to 20 people
“Mark, the average meeting he has is like 15 to 20 people in the room and how you make you know, a product review or discussion productive with 15 and 20 people still get people to be heard. Like he's very, very good at that stuff.”
Insight
Ek: Spotify's internal motto is 'talk is cheap' to prioritize deliberation
“So the internal saying that Spotify is talk is cheap. Because we want to be really deliberate about what it is we're doing and how we're doing it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ek: Relatively simple Spotify changes could take 1-2 years to license
“In many cases, even making relatively simple changes could take one or two years for us to get licensed.”
Assertion Supported
Ek: Spotify has way north of half a billion users
“What we realized is we should use this base of what was then several hundred million people and today's way north of half a billion people and just serve them more stuff.”
Insight
Ek: Top-down initiatives fail; Spotify scales bottom-up organic user behavior
“What's so amazing with the platform is every time we try to do something deliberate sort of top down, it's sort of fail. And most of the time, actually, what we see is the inflings of something already existing on the platform and then growing from there.”
Insight
Ek: High usage despite terrible UX proves strong underlying product demand
“So when your product is being used in spite of it actually being a pretty terrible experience, you kind of know you've got something.”
Assertion Supported
Chang: Analysts Value Standalone YouTube at $500B, YouTube TV Leading Cable
“Today you have analysts saying if you pulled YouTube out of Google, it would be worth half a trillion dollars, which is almost double where Netflix is. It's on track, YouTube TV, to be the largest cable provider in the United States.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: YouTube Pays 55% on Long-Form and 45% on Shorts to Creators
“Google does not report today, but here is what is unique about YouTube versus every other platform is they pay out 55% of revenue on long form and 45% on shorts directly to creators.”
Assertion Supported
Chang: YouTube Paid Creators $70B Over 3 Years, Surpassing Netflix Content Spend
“I think seventy billion dollars to creators over the last three years, which again is more than Netflix spends on content.”
Opinion
Gilbert: Google's YouTube Acquisition Is an A-Plus Deal Despite Questionable Profitability
“YouTube was an A plus acquisition. Because of the strategic value. I mean, whether it's the second largest search engine, second to Google, or the second largest social media property you know, Strategically, very great thing to own, not to mention going into …”
Insight
Gilbert: Value Major M&A on Existential Risk Rather Than Standalone DCF
“The way that you should look at YouTube is not, what is the discounted cash flow of YouTube as an independent business if you look at their, you know, profitability today. It's, what was the existential risk to Google of not owning YouTube? If YouTube became a…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: LinkedIn generates over $16B in annual revenue
“Sixteen billion plus in revenue today.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rosenthal: LinkedIn advertising and content generates over $5B annually
“Of which five billion Comes from advertising and content, which for all intents and purposes didn't exist when the acquisition happened. They have built that into a real business.”
Opinion
Gilbert: Standalone LinkedIn would be worth over $100B today
“I mean, if you look at what a reasonable multiple would be for LinkedIn, if it were an independent company today, It's a big company. Like it would be a hundred and I don't know, over a hundred billion dollar market cap company today.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Starlink is estimated to generate $6.5B in 2024 and is profitable
“They now have Starlink, which is estimated to do six and a half billion dollars in 2024, and they are reportedly profitable as a business.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Starlink's 7,000 satellites represent two-thirds of all orbiting satellites
“I'm pretty sure the 7000 Starlink satellites that are in orbit represent two thirds of the total satellites orbiting the earth.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Taylor Swift Made Over $100M From Spotify Streaming Alone in 2023
“Last year Taylor made over, well over. Reported, reported, this is reported. Well over a hundred million dollars from Spotify streaming alone.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Taylor Swift's Eras Tour Grossed $1.1B in Calendar Year 2023
“So, last year, the Eros tour, in calendar year, twenty-twenty-three, grossed, I think, 1.1 billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Eras Tour Concert Movie Grossed $267M as Highest of All Time
“The movie grossed two hundred and sixty seven million dollars at the box office. Highest grossing concert film of all time. Taylor went direct to the theaters with the movie.”
Opinion
Rosenthal: Taylor Swift Enterprise Value Is $11B Using Disney's 20x Multiple
“Disney trades at 20 X free cash flow. Taylor is five hundred and fifty million in free cash flow. That's a eleven billion dollar enterprise value for Taylor.”
Assertion Supported
Neukirchen: JPMorgan Payments moves $10 trillion daily across 160 countries
“We're in 160 countries, and we move about 10 trillion dollars. 10 trillion dollars every day. That is, I think, one in every four dollars that moves. Around the globe.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Farooq: JPMorgan's Onyx processes larger transactions than crypto blockchains
“We, within our Onyx business unit, have the largest financial blockchain life ecosystem on the planet. We do bigger transactions than any blockchain, including the crypto blockchains.”
What-if
Huang: I would start NVIDIA again knowing how it turned out
“Of course, I, it was taken out of context because I was asked about that several times after that, and of course I would start the company if I knew it would turn out this way.”
What-if
Huang: Nobody would start NVIDIA knowing 32 years of hardship beforehand
“The mountain of it in the course of 31 years, if I were to take all of that all the challenges and all the hardship and all the pain and suffering of the last 32 years, and I would have compressed it into the brain of a twenty-nine-year-old, there is no way th…”
Insight
Huang: An entrepreneur's superpower is ignorance of how hard startup life is
“And my point there is the super point of entrepreneurs, which is your superpowers are partly your ignorance, that you don't know how hard it is.”
Disclosure
Mark Zuckerberg: 'I don't apologize anymore'
“I don't apologize anymore.”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Values are lived behaviors from hard trade-offs, not wall slogans
“Values are not what you write down on the wall. It's like your lived behaviors, and you only really learn what you care about when you have to make hard trade-offs and face challenges.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: Holographic smart glasses will be the ultimate form of AI
“It's going to be, I think, the ultimate Digital social experience, and I think it's also going to be the ultimate incarnation of AI, because you're going to have conversations where it's like, alright, there's some people, it's like maybe like, I'm physically …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: Full-scale AI will arrive before AR holograms
“A few years ago, I would have predicted that AR holograms would have been available before kind of, like, full-scale AI. And now I think it's probably going to be the other order.”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: Meta deliberately stacks its management team with technical leaders
“I think one of the things that I've always been pretty careful about is I actually, like, want, like, the, a lot of the people on our management team, it's like, You know, split. It's mostly people running either of these big product groups who come up through…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Companies without enough engineers on staff and board aren't tech companies
“If you don't have enough of your, kind of, share of the company as engineers, then you're not a technology company, and I think that that also is important to the board”
Insight
Zuckerberg: If Meta learns and iterates faster than competitors, it will win
“So like I define our strategies. We can learn faster than every other company. We're going to win. We're going to build a better product than everyone else because we're going to get it out first or early. We're going to have a good feedback loop. We're gonna …”
Opinion
Zuckerberg: Meta's shipping philosophy is the opposite of Apple's long-cycle polish
“I think in a lot of ways we're like the opposite of Apple, and clearly their stuff has worked really well too, right? But I mean, they take this approach, it's like, we're gonna take a, like, a long time, we're gonna polish it, we're gonna put it out and maybe…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Prioritizing praise over rapid shipping wastes critical product learning time
“I do just think that, like, you want to really have a culture that values shipping and getting things out and getting feedback more than needing always to get great positive accolades from people when you put stuff out. Because I think, like, if you want to wa…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Meta is unashamed to adopt and improve competitors' innovations
“We're not embarrassed about learning from things that other people, like, discovered that were good first, and then we build a better version of it, and I mean, I think that that's, You know, no one company is going to invent everything, right? I think if you …”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: Meta open-sourced infrastructure because Google already held proprietary compute advantage
“Google was the first of the great companies that built this distributed computing infrastructure. So they came first. They were like, all right, let's keep this proprietary because it's a big advantage for us. And then we're like, all right, we need that too. …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: Open Compute supply chain standardization saved Meta billions of dollars
“Because of that, the supply chain is standard around, standardized around our designs, which means that it's, like, way more supply, way cheaper to produce. We've saved billions of dollars, and the quality of the stuff that we get to use goes up.”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: Meta must build AI and hardware platforms to avoid mobile gatekeeper dependence
“We've just been, we've been through too much stuff with the other platforms to fully depend on, on anyone else, and we're a big enough company at this point that, like, we don't have to, right? We can build our own core technology platforms, whether that's gon…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Adding features during platform rewrites risks projects never finishing
“We basically took, I think it must have been like a year or something, we were just like, look, we're gonna pause feature development of the company, because it's hard enough to do a rewrite, right? So if you look at, like, the history of the tech industry, th…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Strategy is harder when winning than when losing
“I think strategically, a lot of the time, it's somewhat harder to know what to do when you're winning. Like, when stuff is going well, it's like, what is the next move to, like, go from winning to winning more? But when you're losing, it's usually pretty clear…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Jumping between local optima is culturally hardest for companies
“I think it's actually when you have something that's working well, and you're on one local hill, and you need to jump to another hill, that's the stuff that's really culturally hard.”
Opinion
Zuckerberg: Meta's post-2016 political strategy was a 20-year mistake
“My guess is if the IPO Was a year and a half mistake. I think that the political miscalculation was a 20 year mistake.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: Meta brand will take another 10 years to recover
“I think it's going to take another 10 years or so for us to kind of fully work through that cycle before our brand and all of that is back to kind of the place that it maybe could have been if I hadn't messed that up in the first place.”
Assertion Partly supported
Zuckerberg: Facebook board tried firing him over $1B Yahoo offer
“In 2006, Yahoo wanted to buy the company for a billion dollars, and everyone on our management team wanted to sell it, and the board tried to fire me, and everyone, and basically in the next year, everyone else on the management team left because they, I hadn'…”
Insight
Zuckerberg: Overstaffing projects destroys employee agency and repels top talent
“It also is problematic to have more people working on something than you should have for the stage that it's at, because then the people who are working on it don't have the agency to actually, like, make the changes and do the things that they need to, Which …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: AR and AI smart glasses will become completely ubiquitous
“I'm pretty sure glasses and kind of, like, holographic presence and AR is going to be a completely ubiquitous Product, right? It's just like everyone who had a phone before replaced it with a smartphone, and then a lot of more people got smartphones. If all we…”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: Meta might be twice as profitable if it owned mobile platforms
“You know, we did this calculation or estimate at some point where it's like, how much money do we lose from our core family of apps to the various, like, taxes that the platforms have to, like, when they tell us we can't run the ad business the way that we thi…”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: Meta scaled AI and Reality Labs knowing investors would hate it
“What we knew was gonna be really painful, you know, to go double down on those things, and build out the AI infrastructure that we needed to, and scale up some of the Reality Lab stuff. And I knew that a lot of the investors would hate it. At least in the shor…”
Assertion Supported
Zuckerberg: Meta owns four apps with at least one billion users
“We went through a period where it's like, we had Facebook and a handful of small apps, and now we have, like, you know, four apps that have a billion people or more using them”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2027
Zuckerberg: Threads could reach one billion users within a few years
“Hopefully in the next few years, five with threads, if that continues scaling.”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: Facebook rebrand to Meta was running toward future, not escaping controversy
“I'm only going to do this when we come up with a brand that is going to be evocative of the future that we're trying to build because we run towards something. We don't run away from things.”
Disclosure
Zuckerberg: Goal for next 10-15 years is building winning open platforms
“Part of my goal for the next 1015 years, the next generation of platforms, is to build the next generation of open platforms and have the open platforms win. And I think that that's going to lead to a much more vibrant tech industry.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zuckerberg: Apple is Meta's primary competitor in ideological open-vs-closed race
“I expect them to be our primary competitor, and I think it will not be Just a product competition. I think it's like a, in some ways, very deeply values driven and ideological competition around what the future of the tech industry should be”