The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Ben Gilbert (27)David Rosenthal (14)Mark Zuckerberg (2)Peter Fenton (1)Jim Weber (1)Jason Calacanis (1)Dara Khosrowshahi (1)Daniel Ek (1)Christina Cacioppo (1)Brendan Eich (1)Brad Gerstner (1)Ben Thompson (1)
drag to pan · pinch, buttons, or ⌘/ctrl scroll to zoom
Next up (10)
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
337 days left 2027-08-16
370 days left 2027-09-18
382 days left 2027-09-30
474 days left 2027-12-31
914 days left 2029-03-15
2072 days left 2032-05-16
2465 days left 2033-06-13
Khosrowshahi: Autonomous vehicles will take 10 years to become material in transportation
“My instinct is that you will see small scale continued experiments kind of get bigger over the next five years, but it's going to take a good 10 years for it to be a material part of our network or transportation at large. But that's a guess.”
Closed calls (18) the full record →
Rosenthal: TSMC will likely be sole manufacturer at 3nm node
“So, very likely in the next process, it's just going to be TSMC.”
Rosenthal: Tesla Will Have to Shift to TSMC for 3nm Chips
“They're gonna have to go to TSMC, though, in the next generation, because you want three nanometer.”
Rep. Gonzalez: Congress will likely pass fiat-backed stablecoin legislation
“What I think you'll probably see is some sort of law that enshrines a quote payment stable coin. That language has been used in a couple of different bills. A payment stable coin as essentially a fiat backed stable coin.”
Gilbert: Amazon will inevitably surpass Walmart in total global revenue
“If you look at the gap that Amazon closed in total revenue since the time they were founded to Walmart, they're going to catch them.
No doubt about it.”
Rosenthal: Ford and Red Bull Will Score a Podium in Their First Season
“Whereas Ford is coming in with Red Bull, one of the top teams, like they're going to be on the podium from season one.”
Neoclouds Will Offer Google TPUs in the Coming Months
“I think within a year it might happen. There are rumors already that some NeoClouds in the coming months are gonna have TPUs.”
Predominant enterprise AI GPU compute consumption will occur via the cloud
“It looks like the predominant way that companies are going to use that compute is gonna be in the cloud.”
Costco operates at an 11% gross margin and will never expand it
“Even though Costco is only an 11% gross margin business, and only ever will be an 11% gross margin business, it's still a pretty amazing business to own.”
YouTube's Annual Revenue Will Likely Surpass All of Disney in 2025
“So YouTube is already bigger than Disney's media business, and this year will likely become bigger than Disney's entire business.”
Gilbert: TSMC will ramp its 2nm process in the second half of 2025
“I think they're actually doing the small production runs, getting ready to ramp in the second half of this year on the two nanometer process.”
Rep. Gonzalez: Congress is close to legislating on stablecoins
“We're getting to a point as a Congress, which is really nice, where I feel like we're getting close to finally legislating on it, specifically around stable coins. We'll see if we get there, but I think that's sort of the first bite of the apple coming off the…”
Gilbert: Walmart should win same-day grocery delivery via Supercenters
“In my bull case, there's, they kind of should win same-day grocery delivery since they have these super centers everywhere.”
Doug DeMuro Predicts a $2 Million All-Electric Porsche Supercar Soon
“I suspect, in the next couple years, they will come out with a, the next supercar, which will be, you know, look like this, and they'll only make a thousand, and it'll cost two million dollars, and it will be fully electric in two zero to 60 in one and a half …”
Rosenthal: Amazon will soon pass Walmart in total revenue
“The only larger one being Walmart, which Amazon will almost assuredly pass very soon.”
Rosenthal: NVIDIA Hopper will be TSMC's first 4nm chip
“I think Hopper is going to be the world's first four nanometer process chip using TSMC's new four nanometer.”
Microsoft will not make Activision games Xbox exclusive following the acquisition
“People are worried about with the Activision deal about whether Microsoft would make Activision's games exclusive on Xbox. I don't think they will.”