The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Ben Gilbert (27)David Rosenthal (14)Mark Zuckerberg (2)Peter Fenton (1)Jim Weber (1)Jason Calacanis (1)Dara Khosrowshahi (1)Daniel Ek (1)Christina Cacioppo (1)Brendan Eich (1)Brad Gerstner (1)Ben Thompson (1)
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Next up (3)
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Closed calls (7) the full record →
Gilbert: Amazon will inevitably surpass Walmart in total global revenue
“If you look at the gap that Amazon closed in total revenue since the time they were founded to Walmart, they're going to catch them.
No doubt about it.”
Neoclouds Will Offer Google TPUs in the Coming Months
“I think within a year it might happen. There are rumors already that some NeoClouds in the coming months are gonna have TPUs.”
Costco operates at an 11% gross margin and will never expand it
“Even though Costco is only an 11% gross margin business, and only ever will be an 11% gross margin business, it's still a pretty amazing business to own.”
YouTube's Annual Revenue Will Likely Surpass All of Disney in 2025
“So YouTube is already bigger than Disney's media business, and this year will likely become bigger than Disney's entire business.”
Gilbert: TSMC will ramp its 2nm process in the second half of 2025
“I think they're actually doing the small production runs, getting ready to ramp in the second half of this year on the two nanometer process.”