market

“When you look at the correlation Correlation between the current Shiller P.E. And the future 10 years of real returns in the market, it's very high. It's something like .7 or point, maybe even higher than that.7. So pretty reliably, what that means is if you b…”

“Unweighted numbers, about 40% of managers beat the market in an average year. And the standard deviation is high. It's like 17% standard deviation.”

“Now, he did beat the market by almost two percent a year for a decent amount of time, so they were very good.”

“It's in decades, not in single digit years with hundreds of different groups on board. And it would be impossible statistically to think that that's random at this point. Let's put it that way. They continue to do well.”

“They're trying to find mistakes in markets and correct them. And I think that's actually a pro-social idea.”

“And so people that just short the indices and call themselves a hedge fund, by definition, after fees, you can't beat the market.”

“It doesn't matter whether the economy is good or bad. What matters is the change in the direction. So markets are all about surprise.”

“If you add up the years when the market is down, and then the years that small value underperforms the rest of the market, that's 50% of years.”

“This is also how ideas spread. We talk about this really much in the context of markets. What is an information cascade? It's an idea propagating across a network. Why do we all come to uniform beliefs and markets from time to time? Same basic. It's a mind vir…”

“Over time, the market's going to be efficient, and for you to think that you could pick out the very little places where it's inefficient against the people who are literally spending their lives doing it is a folly that other people get trapped in.”

“In the short term, I think it's just Really hard to look at things and say, all right, we're moving forward and markets are going up and we're going to buy more when it feels like the market's gotten a little bit ahead of itself and we're more likely to see a …”

“Really seeing the excesses during the boom times and seeing the despair and the irrational behavior right after the crisis just made me realize that, wow, like markets are highly inefficient. They are not pricing in externalities and these systemic risks.”

“You don't get to pick a discount rate. You have to match it to the discount rates you see in the market.”

“After the crash of 1929, the market did not exceed its previous high until 1956, which is true if you don't include dividends. If you do include dividends, the right answer is 1936.”

“The markets are focused on this quarter, next quarter. They don't look out five years. The markets have a great problem looking out five years for some reason. Three to five years is very difficult for people to want to bet on. And they'd like to see near term…”

“I think as a fiduciary, we're doing the right thing because I think the market is overpricing all these risks, and that's why the price is low relative to where it will be.”

“The market went from being heavy risk on to heavy risk off in those particular sectors, and probably was way overbought, and now it's probably way oversold.”

“When people believe that that's the case, I sit there and I just look at survivorship bias and say, the only people who are still around saying that are basically the lucky ones.”

“And they're not really discounting a decade out, but they are discounting two, three, four or five years out.”

“It's like, wow, I just executed a trade, and there was no counterparty on the other side. That's revolutionary relative to the way markets have worked for hundreds of years.”

“It completely misses the point that markets are this crazy beast that are totally uncertain because they're really a product of social activity, and over long periods of time, any social activity has huge variations.”

“It's possible the markets may bottom in the next six or seven months, but probably at much lower levels than here.”

“I think the drawdowns that we've seen are because Hedge fund longs are on average down 50 or 60% in a market that's down 30, and shorts either don't exist, or the shorts are down like 10.”

“I'm not convinced that we've even begun to sort out that bubble.”

“My personal view on markets is very much That they tend towards being complex adaptive systems. I think we can talk about them as complex environments, but there is a level of predictability, and we do think markets are somewhat predictable over the medium ter…”

“And what I found was, this is in the late nineties, so things have changed a little bit. The market was really, really bad at pricing legal risk.”

“Even today, I think the markets are more efficient, I think, probably than the average active manager. I think they're hard to beat.”

“The market is not just all on one side of the boat. Everyone's in the bow of that boat, and it will not take much to potentially tip it and create a major risk off event.”

“When you transition from analyst to portfolio manager, it's a big and often difficult transition, but one of the most important things that you learn is, as an analyst, your job is to know everything there is about an idea, and when your idea is not playing ou…”

“We were semi-public from O seven to 12, and then public from 12 to 19, and people would say, how is that? I'd say, well, it's fine, except that every day you get a report card from somebody who doesn't know your business that well, called the market.”

“One of the things that I think is very important as investors start to incorporate politics and geopolitics more and more into their toolbox is just to understand that while you as a human being really cares about absolute levels of risk, the market is not hum…”

“I have a sneaking hypothesis that I'm hesitant to say out here because there's a high probability I'm wrong, but I will say it. I feel like the market's becoming a little less efficient in certain areas, and I'll explain it.”

“It does feel like the markets are different in the last couple of years than they were a decade ago. If you asked me five years ago, are markets on a never ending trend towards efficiency? And is your job as a systematic investor It's going to get harder and h…”

“Then it started to get traction, and in the last 25 years took off, and is now more than half the market.”

“You will never hit a Goldman Sachs or a JP Morgan Tell you to get out of the market because it's ludicrously overpriced. Everybody knows today it's ludicrously overpriced, but no one can tell you, and they never will.”