Recession

“Recessions are market share redistribution events.”

“If it's not this year, it would be late, like Q-three, Q-four it'll probably be early next year. What do you think the current odds are on that? I would say, 60% chance of a recession.”

“There's no chance we have a recession at the end of the year. There's just no chance.”

“Almost every waterfall decline is a V-shaped bounce unless there's a recession. So that's why we got so keyed up on this high-yield market, because if we fall, but we don't have a recession, that just means you, everyone just panicked. They did a fire-ready ai…”

“As Doge sort of slows down that money flow, and as the consensus in Congress gets to a better budget, I think that you're going to see that the government was probably responsible for a hundred to a 150 basis points of just waste. And if you take that out. You…”

“So it's like the fewer recessions that you have, the bigger the next recession is going to be.”

“They never said it, but that was the explicit policy aim. We need to crash this economy to get people back to their jobs. It's crazy. I mean, it didn't work. They weren't able to do it, thank God. We got inflation down anyway despite their efforts”

“Macroeconomically, it is somewhat quote unquote, recession proof, downturn proof, because like when things are bad, you order pizza. When things are good, you order pizza, right? Funerals, pizza, weddings, pizza.”

“Recessions are actually good to have every once in a while. They clean out a lot of nonsense. You know, what happens is there's a lot of resources being used for things that are not productive in the economy, and you need a sensor mechanism. You need certain t…”

“But remember, historically, rate cuts that are preceding a recession or fears about a recession are oftentimes sold, right? It doesn't cause the market to go up. It actually causes the market to go down.”

“I think we're in a recession”

“Consumer studies of those recessions have showed That the companies that didn't cut their ads had in recovery captured the most market share.”

“What's interesting about the Rick's Cabaret stock price is that it has presaged the last two recessions.”

“More than half of Americans think we're in a recession.”

“Right now, we're getting ready for the recession. I know it started. People are not fully aware of it, but it's going to hit hard in the next couple of months.”

“If you're going to be in this business for another 30 years, if you're lucky, if things are good, we'll probably have at least six or seven or 10 more recessions.”

“I do think that the whole B to B software industry definitely went through a recession, but fortunately, I think we bottomed out and are starting to see green shoots now.”

“I think right now it looks like we're on track to have a Biden-Trump rematch, and right now Biden probably looks like he's gonna win, barring a recession happening or the Ukrainian side collapsing in, in the war.”

“I'm sticking by it. I think we're still gonna have a recession, but it is an interesting paradox here.”

“And that's kind of the expectation going into this year is by the time we're going out of this year, there will be a recession.”

“In the spread sectors, our base case economic view is reasonably constructive. U.S. Inflation heading back down to the high two level on the core side at the end of the year. Based on recent constructive economic data, slow growth, basically a fifty-fifty chan…”

“Recession is the economy goes down by three percent, sort of up by three percent. So we go from being a 20 trillion to being a 19.5 trillion or 20.5 trillion. Like, I just, I personally just don't believe in that effect. Like, you think it's an excuse? Yeah. W…”

“Mid-twenty-four is when the recession ends, and you need to give yourself two to three quarters of buffer so that you can go and raise around, which takes a quarter to two quarters.”

“Well, I think we're in the first part of a recession. That'll probably be a double-dip recession and we'll actually see inflation come back up again. That's my assertion.”

“I think we all believe that we're gonna have a pretty severe recession next year.”

“There's a recession coming down the line, right? You know, you already have the stock markets going down. We're at our worst start in 52 years. Something's coming down the pike.”

“The entire continent of Europe is probably on the precipice of and the minimum of recession. But frankly, there's a lot of scenarios where it could be meaningfully worse.”

“Some of the best vintage year returns are in years like this, leading up to and during a market correction or a recession.”

“The reality is we do not want Powell tightening more than he should or more than is necessary to solve inflation because it will cause a serious recession.”

“Look, we think, I think we're in a recession. I mean, I'll, I don't know if someone's already said this, but we're in a recession. We're in a recession.”

“I think, like, recession now is just inevitable. You, to Jamal's point, you can't have 14% of global wealth wiped out practically overnight and not have that translate into a big recession.”

“Europe is going to be the canary in the coal mine on all of this because I think they feel this pretty severely. And I think there's a lot of exhaustion amongst European governments and leaders when you start to listen to this rhetoric. To kind of, you know, f…”

“We're definitely going into a slowdown. And whether it becomes a recession to be determined, I think there's a very good chance because We already were headed for a slowdown because of interest rate increases because of inflation. And now on top of it, we've g…”

“Historically, it's meant when the yield curve inverts, there's been a better than two-thirds chance of recession at some point in the next year, and greater than 98% chance of recession at some point in the next two years.”

“We've never had oil over a 120 bucks and not gone into a recession.”

“It is always the case that when energy prices spike by 50%, we enter a recession.”

“I think the That is extremely sensitive to the political risks domestically in the U S and they will not look to curb inflation at the risk of recession. I don't think they will, but I'm in that camp.”

“We are at a cusp of a commodity super cycle, and a recession could obviously curtail that. It would waylay it, but not for a significant period of time.”

“The next step beyond all of the supply chain issues could be and I think Saks has been talking about this a lot, like a pretty bad recession if these companies have all this inventory and they don't know how to get working capital.”

“The Fed now is raising rates or projecting raising rates very quickly, which is creating, it was created a huge market downturn. It's a very blunt instrument. It could cause a downturn or a recession.”

“What it's really created has been this massive bout of inflation, which then could cause an ultimate recession because the Fed has to react.”

“But I will tell you the thing that will ultimately cause this cycle to move into the next will be a recession.”

“Typically recessions last about 22, 23 months, you know, during that recession time that things will contract and valuations will contract typically”

“What I learned is that recessions in your industry can last a lot longer than the global or local recessions.”

“You know, when you're a small business, okay, you have one chess piece. You don't have a lot of Options. You don't have a lot of moves. It's a real problem for a recession where like a small business, yeah, they can cut back on their costs really, really quick…”

“My thesis on this in terms of getting out of the recession, I think remote work could lead to a level of efficiency and profitability in the companies that we have never seen before.”

“I feel like certainly in prior recessions, you know, 2008, 2002 1001, I think the companies that did the best are the ones that, you know, did a deep cut early, but then didn't have to do anymore.”

“Simple quantitative models tend to have about eight times the level of statistical power during recessions than during times of economic growth.”

“Nine out of 10 economists had missed the last four recessions where we had the blue chip consensus estimates”

“So if you look at, you know, the really bad recessions, they usually don't take, you know, the markets usually don't dry up. Take Markets didn't dry up for more than like a year and a half.”

“There were countries around the world that literally went 25 years from 1948 to 1973 without a single year of recession.”