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Morgan Housel

Partner, The Collaborative Fund · 1 appearance on the record.

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authorinvestorjournalist@morganhousel ↗morganhousel.com ↗

Morgan Housel is a partner at Collaborative Fund and the author of The Psychology of Money and Same as Ever. A former columnist for The Motley Fool and The Wall Street Journal, he specializes in behavioral finance and human behavior in financial decision-making.

13statements → 2claims → 2claims resolved → 3.85/5average certainty → 2.54/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 3said about them ↓

1 supported 0 partly supported 1 contradicted how the 2 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

2 assertions · 2 opinions · 8 insights · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 2 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Morgan argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Housel: Pillemer's study of 1,000 centenarians found zero regretted making less money
“It was a study from a gerontologist. His name is Carl Pillemer, and he studied 1000 elderly Americans. Most of them were 90 to a hundred years old. And he writes in his book that of the 1000 elderly people that he studied, not a single one of them, not one sin…”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 32:27 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Housel: Vanguard monthly inflows exceed Robinhood's total assets under custody
“Vanguard brings in more money every month than Robin hood has in total.”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 3:57 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
none yet certainty 3
0% certainty 4
100% certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Morgan Housel on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Morgan Housel said on TBPN that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight
Housel: Writer's block means your underlying idea sucks and is wrong
“Good writing is very easy because if your idea is right, it's easy to articulate it. And if you get writer's block, the reason you have writer's block is because your idea sucks and it's wrong. And that, and that's why you're struggling to articulate it. So I …”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 26:58 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Insight
Housel: High IQ and exhaustive due diligence increase risk of self-delusion
“The harder you work at something, the more opportunities you have to fool yourself. So if you're very smart and you have a one 40 IQ and you went to Harvard and you work at Goldman Sachs and you spend six months doing due diligence on this deal, you are going …”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 27:50 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Insight
Housel: You cannot cut 20% of effort because waste is unpredictable
“When people talk about, oh, I could have been just as successful if I worked 20% less. Yeah, but you don't know which 20% of your work was wasted or not.”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 31:11 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Insight
Housel: Investors with gambling urges should allocate 20% to speculative trading
“And for that person, if you can convince them to say, Hey, can we put 80% of your money in index funds? And then this 20%, you can go nuts with, you can trade shit coins. You can go crazy. You can do anything you want with it. That, that is, it seems like bad …”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 1:52 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Assertion Contradicted
Housel: Vanguard monthly inflows exceed Robinhood's total assets under custody
“Vanguard brings in more money every month than Robin hood has in total.”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 3:57 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Insight
Housel: Free stock trading removed a vital speed bump against bad behavior
“It's hard to push back against free trading, like lower costs. That's great. But it removed a speed bump that incentivizes a lot of really bad behavior.”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 5:06 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Insight
Housel: Fewer recessions lead directly to larger subsequent economic downturns
“So it's like the fewer recessions that you have, the bigger the next recession is going to be.”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 7:13 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Insight
Housel: Modern markets are not more volatile, information is just processed faster
“And so I think you can make the argument that it's not that we have more bad news or even more volatility. It's just happens. Like we process the information so much faster.”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 9:11 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Opinion
Housel: Tech industry threshold for founder BS has dropped significantly
“I think we've actually gotten much better in the last couple of years at separating storytelling from just charlatan bullshit. And like, there was a period when we weren't like, we were not very good at that. Probably, you know, late, late twenties, early twen…”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 22:40 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Opinion
Housel: AI excels at micro writing feedback but fails at macro feedback
“I found that it's pretty good for what I would call micro feedback of just like, Hey, you probably needed a comma here. It's not that good for macro feedback of like, Hey, was this chapter good? Like, did it make any sense to you? It's like, so far it's not th…”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 14:05 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Insight
Housel: Readers only remember a few sentences from books that changed their lives
“Most people don't remember books. They remember a couple sentences from their books. So even if you're like, oh, I love that book. I read that book 10 years ago. Changed my life. Loved it. You probably remember like three or four sentences. And it's those, lik…”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 25:25 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Disclosure
Housel: The Psychology of Money audiobook outsells print two-to-one
“The audio book version of the psychology of money was selling twice as many copies as the physical paper version.”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 16:19 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th
Assertion Supported
Housel: Pillemer's study of 1,000 centenarians found zero regretted making less money
“It was a study from a gerontologist. His name is Carl Pillemer, and he studied 1000 elderly Americans. Most of them were 90 to a hundred years old. And he writes in his book that of the 1000 elderly people that he studied, not a single one of them, not one sin…”
Morgan Housel Apr 8, 2025 ▶ 32:27 Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th

The other half of the tape: Morgan Housel's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 3 times in 3 episodes on TBPN. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most John Coogan 3

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
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000.511220242025episodesmentions per episode
2025 1 mention in 1 episode
2024 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Could AI TAKE OVER by 2027? | Morgan Housel on TBPN April 4th Apr 8, 2025 18m
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