The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone John Coogan (33)Jordi Hays (14)Dylan Patel (4)Andrew Huberman (4)Brian Armstrong (3)Brad Gerstner (3)Tyler Cosgrove (2)Ted Feldmann (2)Tae Kim (2)Sean Frank (2)Sam Lessin (2)Mark Gurman (2)
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Next up (43)
78 days left 2026-11-30
Gerstner: California wealth tax will fail and asset protection referendum will pass
“The wealth tax will be defeated. We will pass the retirement And personal asset protection act as a referendum in California, which will prohibit people from stealing your retirement money or your personal assets that will get passed.”
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Coogan: AI labs will likely solve the Millennium Prize problems this year
“I think that the millennium prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week, it feels like all of the different labs are like, Put a million dollars of inference on this. Put a million dollars of inference on this. There …”
192 days left 2027-03-24
200 days left 2027-04-01
Power: Hadrian will expand to allied countries in a year or two
“So we have so much work to do here in the US that we'd love to support our allied partners in Europe and the, you know, the Middle East and countries like Japan re-industrialize as well. And they often have the same kind of core skilled labor problem. We've go…”
227 days left 2027-04-28
Singer: Autonomous delivery could become default in big cities within two years
“You know, if you're in the big cities, I think, you know, hopefully for us right in the span of a year, maybe two. But you know, I tend to be aggressive on that front, but I think it really depends on, on kind of which markets you're in as that kind of rolls o…”
267 days left 2027-06-07
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
474 days left 2027-12-31
562 days left 2028-03-28
596 days left 2028-05-01
647 days left 2028-06-21
Hotz: Automated flight booking will arrive via APIs, not agentic web browsing
“We're gonna pretty soon have computer use models that are actually capable of going to Delta.com and booking a flight. But then what's actually gonna happen is Delta's gonna partner with whatever company does that, and they're gonna put it behind the stupid th…”
786 days left 2028-11-07
Coogan: 2028 election will pit JD Vance against AOC or Buttigieg
“And so my bet that I would put on Polymarket right now is that The twenty-twenty-eight election is between JD Vance and AOC, or JD Vance and Buttigieg, because AOC and Buttigieg both can actually sit and be real people for several hours, and AOC's done it with…”
863 days left 2029-01-23
922 days left 2029-03-23
Coogan: Routine SpaceX Starship lunar cargo flights are 3-5 years away
“Starship needs to be refueling in orbit, landing on the moon with and without crews, because you're probably going to need some humans up there, some robots and we need to start routine cargo flights to the moon. So this is straight up like three to five years…”
922 days left 2029-03-23
Coogan predicts routine Starship lunar cargo flights are 3-5 years away
“Starship needs to be refueling in orbit, landing on the moon with and without crews, because you're probably going to need some humans up there, some robots and we need to start routine cargo flights to the moon. So this is straight up, like, three to five yea…”
1085 days left 2029-09-02
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1236 days left 2030-01-31
1321 days left 2030-04-26
1356 days left 2030-05-31
1360 days left 2030-06-04
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Patel: Anthropic's $300B revenue target for 2030 is too low
“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”
1606 days left 2031-02-05
1686 days left 2031-04-26
Feldmann: Durin aims to build thousands of automated drill rigs by 2031
“We are we're teaching SpaceXers how to drill and drillers how to participate in a high functional, high functioning engineering organization. And so I think you gotta do both. If you're trying to build a large organization and manufacture thousands of these ri…”
1731 days left 2031-06-10
1935 days left 2031-12-31
2984 days left 2034-11-14
3095 days left 2035-03-05
3129 days left 2035-04-08
3332 days left 2035-10-28
5305 days left 2041-03-23
6629 days left 2044-11-06
7131 days left 2046-03-23
10784 days left 2056-03-23
Closed calls (60+) the full record →
Iovine: Artists whose work influences AI music generation will get paid
“They didn't get paid. But now if you're influenced by the Beatles and Dr. Dre, they will get paid.”
Coogan: Robotaxis will definitely have cameras monitoring passengers
“If you get in a robo taxi, there's definitely going to be a camera on you.”
Gurman: Federighi, O'Brien, Cue, and Joswiak Will Not Succeed Tim Cook
“It's for sure not going to be Craig. It's not going to be Deirdre. It's not going to be Eddie. It's not going to be Jaws.”
Tyler Hogge predicts the US government will provide AI loan backstops
“But a backstop of loans, I would expect that to happen.”
Future military FPV drones will navigate autonomously and operate without RF links
“I think they'll be more automated. They'll have stabilization systems. You'll be able to select a target and the drone will do its own navigation to intercept that target. They won't rely necessarily on RF communication systems since the jamming environment is…”
Lessin: Fund-to-fund private sales will increase significantly in venture capital
“Private to private transactions are going to happen way more. Right. Like you're going to look just as it happened in private equity, like funds will sell the funds.”
Valenzuela: Generative video models will soon run in real time
“You're going to get really soon to a point where you can run these models in real time. And so by the time you run them in real time, you're streaming the pixels as you're watching them, interacting with them.”
Bartlett: AI-native startups will create hundreds of billions in equity value
“But I still think we'll end up with hundreds of billions of dollars of equity value created for, you know, the derivative companies akin to the, Yeah. To the Ubers and the WhatsApps and whoever else.”
Trevor Milton Will Attempt to Build Another Company After Prison Release
“Trevor's gonna try and come out of the clink hit the ground running, build a new company.”
Hays: Next trillion-dollar consumer company will be in healthcare
“You can make an argument that generally the next, that the next trillion dollar consumer company will be in healthcare.”
Cosgrove: OpenAI Will Make Additional Deals With the US Government
“Whichever way, like, the anthropic Pentagon stuff, like, evolves, like, I think it's very clear that this is not, like, the last time government deals will be made, right? Like, the OpenAI deal is not the last deal that OpenAI will make with the government.”
Coogan: Data centers will use 500K tons of copper annually soon
“Data centers broadly will be using half a million tons of copper annually in a few years.”
Coogan: Humanity will invest half a trillion in AI by 2029
“If you just ask me, like, Will humanity invest half a trillion dollars in AI over the next four years? I'd be like, absolutely.”
Rabois: Trump administration will find a way to ban Chinese robots
“I would be shocked if this administration doesn't figure out a way to ban Chinese robots before it's too late.”
Hays: Founders Fund's SpaceX stake will reach around $150B
“Again, it's still, like, gonna be a hundred and fifty-ish billion dollar position.”
Gurman: Apple built an in-house AI search to rival Perplexity
“What they haven't talked about Is AI web search. And so the new Siri is also going to have a chat GPT perplexity competitor for things like deep research and summarizing search. That is going to be an Apple built, an Apple powered system.”
Coogan: Anthropic's next major cluster will run on Amazon
“I believe Anthropic is pretty tightly hitched to Amazon, and I think the next big cluster from Anthropic will be powered by Amazon for the most part”
Hays: Users will be able to one-shot AI-generate design tools within years
“I would say I have a really strong conviction that in the next few years, you'll be able to one shot a design tool.”
Hays: Meta will pursue AI companionship but avoid romantic companion modes
“I still think they'll take more shots on goal around companionship. Will they go grok waifu mode? No. I don't think they want that revenue line.”
Coogan: Character.ai will be built on third-party APIs
“Character will be built on top of other APIs.”
Coogan: 'Ghost ship' startup acquisitions will become an increasingly common pattern
“I don't think this will be the last go ship we see. I think it's like a new pattern and we're just going to see this more and more.”
Hays: Figma IPO first-day close will exceed Adobe acquisition price
“Now Figma is going to IPO. And I would be shocked if they end the first trading day below the price that Adobe was going to pay.”