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Packy McCormick

Founder & Writer, Not Boring · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

authorinvestorfounderexecutive@packyM ↗LinkedIn ↗notboring.co ↗

Packy McCormick is the founder and writer of Not Boring, a business and technology newsletter. He also manages Not Boring Capital, an early-stage venture fund investing in tech companies.

17statements → 10claims → 2claims resolved → 3.53/5average certainty → 2.82/5average debate potential → 47said about them ↓

2 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 7 not checkable as stated how the 10 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

8 predictions · 2 assertions · 5 opinions · 1 insight · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 10 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 2 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 7 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Packy argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
McCormick: OpenAI recouped all GPT-4 training costs and more
“GPT four is the really instructive is the really instructive example because I believe that model costs like a hundred million dollars to train, and it was really expensive at the time, but then very quickly they were on a multi-billion dollar run rate, and it…”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 4:13 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Packy McCormick on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Packy McCormick said on TBPN that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2035
McCormick: Cancer is probably gone in 10 years
“I think a hot take would be cancer is probably gone in 10 years, I think is one of my favorite hot takes. There's just so many different attacks on it, and CAR T cell therapies are doing well, and it's a matter of kind of scaling, scaling those out.”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 21:51 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Frontier AI will settle into an oligopoly among 3-4 labs
“A lot of the VC firms are getting in multiple companies because they don't think it's going to be winner-take-all anymore. They think it's going to be much more oligopolistic for the long term, and there will be competition between the major three or four labs…”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 12:16 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: AI labs will become profitable hyperscalers like cloud
“It seems like the labs will Turn into sort of new hyperscalers. There will be you know, increased competition, but still very, very good businesses a la cloud.”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 22:38 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: AI Will Produce a Couple of $10T Companies
“There's probably going to be like a couple of 10 trillion dollar AI companies that are going to pay for the whole thing.”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 8:26 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Opinion
McCormick: Humanoid Robotics Will Erode Margins Into Consumer Surplus
“Humanoids scare the hell out of me as an investor, because it's like this really impossibly hard thing to do with a lot of really, really smart people working on it, where like, if you pull off this impossible thing, then you're competing against these 10 othe…”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 8:30 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Large VC funds will survive while emerging funds fail
“I think it's like a really, I think like the big funds are actually super well positioned and all, there's going to be a lot of these like emerging ish funds who try to compete who I just think it kind of like wiped out.”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 9:28 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Opinion
McCormick: Any strategic crypto reserve holding Cardano is a joke
“Any strategic reserve that has Cardano in it is just, it's a joke, right?”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 26:52 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Opinion
McCormick: AI labs obsess over competitor compute despite public denials
“And this is really, really relevant to the AI lab discussion because you can tell that even though all of the leaders of the AI lab say, I don't think about the competition. I don't talk about the competition. I'll use general terms. They're all obsessed with …”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 1:38 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Opinion
McCormick: OpenAI and Anthropic are the most unprofitable companies in history
“These are the most unprofitable companies in human history, I think.”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 3:11 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Assertion Supported
McCormick: OpenAI recouped all GPT-4 training costs and more
“GPT four is the really instructive is the really instructive example because I believe that model costs like a hundred million dollars to train, and it was really expensive at the time, but then very quickly they were on a multi-billion dollar run rate, and it…”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 4:13 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Models mastering complex tax and legal nuances is six months away
“This is like a six month away thing.”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 9:43 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Startups can put K-12 education on a Moore's Law curve
“And I think they actually can, you can like put education on a Moore's law, like cost curve and get, make education better for less and less money.”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 12:22 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Insight
McCormick: Creator egos make Substack newsletter bundles nearly impossible
“That actually I think in practice, like when you, when you're like dealing with people who have kind of like egos and think that their own thing is like the thing most important are really, really, really hard to pull off in practice. Like I wouldn't want to b…”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 18:34 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: In five years much of finance will run on blockchains
“And I think it's like some point in five years, a lot of finance is going to run on Solana on ETH maybe on sweet or, you know, like a lot of, I think it's inevitable that, that more and more. Finance will move over to crypto stable coins and having Stripe behi…”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 26:36 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Opinion
McCormick: OpenAI and Anthropic inference margins are healthy
“Well, it's way, way cheaper than what you pay to Anthropic or OpenAI, so they must have good margins, and everyone sort of agrees at this point that inference margins are in fact healthy.”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 5:25 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom
Disclosure
McCormick: Not Boring Capital is shifting toward Series A rounds
“I'm trying to make actually moving closer to the series a now and like not doing deep tech because like, I'm not the guy to underwrite the science. And if I'm like the investor that you're calling to have something that has a bunch of science risk in it, like …”
Packy McCormick Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 25:37 Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now.
Assertion Supported
McCormick: OpenAI signed a deal with Cerebras for fast inference
“OpenAI just did the Cerebrus deal, there's Claude Fast, and there's a whole bunch of different modes that will deliver faster inference”
Packy McCormick Feb 18, 2026 ▶ 6:03 The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom

The other half of the tape: Packy McCormick's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 47 times in 15 episodes on TBPN. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most John Coogan 35Jordi Hays 7

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
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0510202420252026episodes it came up in
002.55510202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 3 mentions in 3 episodes 1 per episode
2025 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2024 42 mentions in 10 episodes 4 per episode

Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
The Secret Economics Controlling OpenAI, Anthropic, and the AI Boom Feb 18, 2026 13m
Packy McCormick Breaks Down Ramp's New $13B Valuation and Where He's Investing Right Now. Mar 5, 2025 12m
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