Packy McCormick discusses the return on investment of frontier model training at AI labs.
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2035
McCormick: Cancer is probably gone in 10 years
“I think a hot take would be cancer is probably gone in 10 years, I think is one of my favorite hot takes. There's just so many different attacks on it, and CAR T cell therapies are doing well, and it's a matter of kind of scaling, scaling those out.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Frontier AI will settle into an oligopoly among 3-4 labs
“A lot of the VC firms are getting in multiple companies because they don't think it's going to be winner-take-all anymore. They think it's going to be much more oligopolistic for the long term, and there will be competition between the major three or four labs…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: AI labs will become profitable hyperscalers like cloud
“It seems like the labs will Turn into sort of new hyperscalers. There will be you know, increased competition, but still very, very good businesses a la cloud.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: AI Will Produce a Couple of $10T Companies
“There's probably going to be like a couple of 10 trillion dollar AI companies that are going to pay for the whole thing.”
Opinion
McCormick: Humanoid Robotics Will Erode Margins Into Consumer Surplus
“Humanoids scare the hell out of me as an investor, because it's like this really impossibly hard thing to do with a lot of really, really smart people working on it, where like, if you pull off this impossible thing, then you're competing against these 10 othe…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McCormick: Large VC funds will survive while emerging funds fail
“I think it's like a really, I think like the big funds are actually super well positioned and all, there's going to be a lot of these like emerging ish funds who try to compete who I just think it kind of like wiped out.”