Jordan Schneider
Founder & Editor-in-Chief, ChinaTalk · 2 appearances on the record.
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hostfounderanalystjournalist@jordanschnyc ↗LinkedIn ↗chinatalk.media ↗
Jordan Schneider produces and hosts ChinaTalk, a newsletter and podcast analyzing US–China technological competition, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and trade policy. He previously worked as an analyst at the Rhodium Group and Bridgewater Associates.
24statements → 12claims → 8claims resolved → 63%fully supported → 3.67/5average certainty → 2.88/5average debate potential → 9said about them ↓
5 supported 3 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 3 not checkable as stated how the 12 claims stand · each chip opens the sources
3 predictions · 9 assertions · 9 opinions · 3 insights · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 12 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 8 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 3 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.
The record, in short
What the tape says about how Jordan argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.
Their most notable supported claim
Biden's AI diffusion rule forced Middle East to pick US over China
“The diffusion rule that the Biden administration put out at the very end was really a play to force them to pick sides. And basically the deal was like, look, if you want access to the future, if you want access to compute, then you really got to play ball wit…”
Expressed certainty vs assessment result
weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet
Everything Jordan Schneider said on TBPN that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →
Rubio's policies revoked 40 visas for biotech and CS PhDs at Northeastern
“40, 40 visas already. 40 people's lives Fucking ruined. Because Marco Rubio thinks that it's cool to pick fights with biotech and CS PhDs.”
Schneider: The Trump administration wants to blow up universities and scientific funding
“And that is a thing that may just stop happening because the Trump administration doesn't care. About the National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health wants to blow up universities for better or for worse from their perspective.”
US risks losing STEM research advantage to China over immigration crackdowns
“Xi Jinping would cut off his left hand for the basic research university industrial complex, which America has, which no other country in the world can hold a candle to until 20 until late 20 25. Where every single good STEM PhD and STEM and STEM professor who…”
US should route AI chips through Malaysia to retain shut-off leverage
“The way to do this playbook, John, is the way we kind of already are, which is sell all the chips into Malaysia, and if Chinese companies wanna sort of run their cloud out of Malaysia and Singapore, then okay, and we can shut it off, If and when we decide we w…”
Gulf states navigate kleptocratic diplomacy and family dynasties better than Europe
“I feel like their diplomatic system like knows how to play the kleptocracy game much better than Canada or Europe. You know, they got their reps and sets when it comes to dealing with, you know, family dynasties and whatnot.”
Biden's AI diffusion rule forced Middle East to pick US over China
“The diffusion rule that the Biden administration put out at the very end was really a play to force them to pick sides. And basically the deal was like, look, if you want access to the future, if you want access to compute, then you really got to play ball wit…”
Schneider: Signal chat leaks reveal 'D team' competence across administration cabinet
“It's just fucking embarrassing. It's amateur hour. It's, this is the D team. And I think this is like the best, like everyone knows that these are not all the sharpest tools in the shed. And I think there are different levels of competency that you see Across …”
Schneider: DeepSeek pushed efficiency earlier because it ran out of chips before US labs
“I think deep sea kind of came to that earlier. The sort of need to really push on kind of the efficiency frontier as opposed to the capability frontier, because they ran out of chips before the likes of OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Schneider: More money flows directly from firms to journalists in China
“I think the one difference is that there is more money that flows directly from firms to journalists in China. So the sort of discount factor that you have to apply to Chinese technology coverage is, Specifically positive technology coverage or even negative t…”
Schneider: Huawei stockpiled AI chips made at TSMC using shell company
“Huawei was able to manufacture an enormous amount of chips at TSMC by basically creating a shell company, TSMC you know, deciding to look the other way about some Chinese firm manufacturing all these AI chips, and then the US government catching them and be li…”
Schneider: Chinese stockpiled memory chips will last at least two years
“There's a whole lot of memory sitting, sitting in warehouses and in China that they'll be good through for at least the next two years.”
The 2019 US-China trade war was largely a wash for the economy
“The twenty-nineteen U.S. Trade, it was kind of a wash. And you can sort of write it off because the US economy was growing and we weren't picking a trade war with every other fucking country on the planet.”
Schneider: Business policy uncertainty under Trump will last four years
“You know, look, it's not gonna be 90 days. It's gonna be four years, because this man likes to be in the headlines more than he likes literally anything else. So, he is going to keep doing things that put him in the headlines. He can't take wins.”
Nvidia will be fine without $2 billion in China H20 chip revenue
“There is no reason. NVIDIA does not need the money. It's like two billion dollars of revenue. Like, they will be just fine without it”
China does not price in escalation risks like the Soviet Union did
“So the Chinese government, I think, like, first off, does not price in the risk of an accident turning into something really horrific nearly as much as the Soviet Union did over the course of the Cold War. And they see that w you know, the Biden administration…”
State ownership and poor incentives are slowing China's COMAC aircraft development
“My guess is that like the reason it has taken so long for COMAC to get its shit together and build competitors to Boeing and Airbus is
Is probably the fact that it is state owned and there are just like poor incentives going on versus the sort of free market …”
Schneider: DeepSeek's core engineering base is under 30 from top Chinese universities
“The core of deep seeks engineering base are all under 30 and all from those top Chinese universities in that cohort.”
Schneider: Industrial Robotics Will Outpace Humanoids Over a Three-Year Horizon
“I think the sort of
The big markets in the, you know, three-year horizon, let's say, are much more on the industrial robotics side.”
Schneider: China Can Manufacture Drones 15 Times Cheaper Than the US
“China has a really remarkable advantage in scale and manufacturing scale.
And the US, like, it's not just the cost of labor, it's the experience, it's the network and it's the kind of like, 25 years of learning that all these firms have been doing to get to th…”
Schneider: Over 75% of top AI founders and research engineers are foreign-born
“And when you look at you know, a lot of the founders, Of these AI firms, a lot of found a lot of sort of the top research engineers, like an enormous amount, like a, I would say over 75% of them were not born in the US.”
TSMC is entirely pot-committed to making its Arizona fab work
“They're more pot committed than almost any other company in the world. And they don't really have an out for this. So they're gonna do everything they can to, you know, make make Arizona work and make the relationship with this administration in this country m…”
Schneider: The Foreigner Business Advantage in China Ended After the 2000s
“The alpha of being a foreigner doing business in China. Is like a 19 eighties, 19 nineties, you know, first half of the 2000 story. And then sort of your only alpha as a foreigner in China was not even like, you know, working at Microsoft China or whatever, wh…”
The other half of the tape: Jordan Schneider's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 9 times in 5 episodes on TBPN. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Jordi Hays 4John Coogan 3
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
2026 4 mentions in 1 episode
Appearances (2)
| Episode | Date | Speaking time |
|---|---|---|
| Is America Losing the Tech War with China? | Jordan Schnaider on TBPN | Apr 28, 2025 | 18m |
| Jordan Schneider (ChinaTalk) On the US-China Power Struggle | Mar 28, 2025 | 19m |