The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone John Coogan (33)Jordi Hays (14)Dylan Patel (4)Andrew Huberman (4)Brian Armstrong (3)Brad Gerstner (3)Tyler Cosgrove (2)Ted Feldmann (2)Tae Kim (2)Sean Frank (2)Sam Lessin (2)Mark Gurman (2)
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The record (72) every resolved claim →
Iovine: Artists whose work influences AI music generation will get paid
“They didn't get paid. But now if you're influenced by the Beatles and Dr. Dre, they will get paid.”
Coogan: Robotaxis will definitely have cameras monitoring passengers
“If you get in a robo taxi, there's definitely going to be a camera on you.”
Gurman: Federighi, O'Brien, Cue, and Joswiak Will Not Succeed Tim Cook
“It's for sure not going to be Craig. It's not going to be Deirdre. It's not going to be Eddie. It's not going to be Jaws.”
Tyler Hogge predicts the US government will provide AI loan backstops
“But a backstop of loans, I would expect that to happen.”
Future military FPV drones will navigate autonomously and operate without RF links
“I think they'll be more automated. They'll have stabilization systems. You'll be able to select a target and the drone will do its own navigation to intercept that target. They won't rely necessarily on RF communication systems since the jamming environment is…”
Lessin: Fund-to-fund private sales will increase significantly in venture capital
“Private to private transactions are going to happen way more. Right. Like you're going to look just as it happened in private equity, like funds will sell the funds.”
Valenzuela: Generative video models will soon run in real time
“You're going to get really soon to a point where you can run these models in real time. And so by the time you run them in real time, you're streaming the pixels as you're watching them, interacting with them.”
Bartlett: AI-native startups will create hundreds of billions in equity value
“But I still think we'll end up with hundreds of billions of dollars of equity value created for, you know, the derivative companies akin to the, Yeah. To the Ubers and the WhatsApps and whoever else.”
Trevor Milton Will Attempt to Build Another Company After Prison Release
“Trevor's gonna try and come out of the clink hit the ground running, build a new company.”
Hays: Next trillion-dollar consumer company will be in healthcare
“You can make an argument that generally the next, that the next trillion dollar consumer company will be in healthcare.”
Cosgrove: OpenAI Will Make Additional Deals With the US Government
“Whichever way, like, the anthropic Pentagon stuff, like, evolves, like, I think it's very clear that this is not, like, the last time government deals will be made, right? Like, the OpenAI deal is not the last deal that OpenAI will make with the government.”
Coogan: Data centers will use 500K tons of copper annually soon
“Data centers broadly will be using half a million tons of copper annually in a few years.”
Coogan: Humanity will invest half a trillion in AI by 2029
“If you just ask me, like, Will humanity invest half a trillion dollars in AI over the next four years? I'd be like, absolutely.”
Rabois: Trump administration will find a way to ban Chinese robots
“I would be shocked if this administration doesn't figure out a way to ban Chinese robots before it's too late.”
Hays: Founders Fund's SpaceX stake will reach around $150B
“Again, it's still, like, gonna be a hundred and fifty-ish billion dollar position.”
Gurman: Apple built an in-house AI search to rival Perplexity
“What they haven't talked about Is AI web search. And so the new Siri is also going to have a chat GPT perplexity competitor for things like deep research and summarizing search. That is going to be an Apple built, an Apple powered system.”
Coogan: Anthropic's next major cluster will run on Amazon
“I believe Anthropic is pretty tightly hitched to Amazon, and I think the next big cluster from Anthropic will be powered by Amazon for the most part”
Hays: Users will be able to one-shot AI-generate design tools within years
“I would say I have a really strong conviction that in the next few years, you'll be able to one shot a design tool.”
Hays: Meta will pursue AI companionship but avoid romantic companion modes
“I still think they'll take more shots on goal around companionship. Will they go grok waifu mode? No. I don't think they want that revenue line.”
Coogan: Character.ai will be built on third-party APIs
“Character will be built on top of other APIs.”
Coogan: 'Ghost ship' startup acquisitions will become an increasingly common pattern
“I don't think this will be the last go ship we see. I think it's like a new pattern and we're just going to see this more and more.”
Hays: Figma IPO first-day close will exceed Adobe acquisition price
“Now Figma is going to IPO. And I would be shocked if they end the first trading day below the price that Adobe was going to pay.”
Chesky Predicts Real-Time AI-Generated Interfaces Within Two Years
“I think you're going to even be able to see real time AI generated interface the next year or two.”
Mehr: Golden Dome will be 7% of DoD budget in 2-3 years
“What I've heard last is it's going to be seven percent of the DoD budget in the next two, three years, right? Once it becomes programmatic.”
Playback will integrate AI voice commentary overlays for fans
“Playback they're also going to integrate you know, AI into that flow as well, like a voice based commentator or whatever that can watch the game and, Provide an overlay for fans”
Coogan: Novo Nordisk supply will eventually severely limit compounded GLP-1s
“It may take a few more quarters, but Novo Nordisk will eventually produce enough supply to end the shortage of its drug. When that happens, despite their efforts to influence public opinion, Compounded versions will likely be severely limited.”
Hays: Peter Rahal's David Will Likely Be a $500M to $1B Outcome
“Like it'll clearly be somewhere, probably 500 to a billion dollar outcome again.”
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Will Be Released From Prison in 2027
“He's going to be out of prison in 20, 27.”
Coogan: OpenAI will introduce free-tier ads and up to $2,000/mo subscriptions
“Clearly all of that product stuff's getting ironed out and they're going to have ads in the free version all the way up to a 2000 dollar a month tier or 200 dollar a month tier.”
Hayes: Anduril will acquire defense startups that fail at government distribution
“Andrew roll, I think benefits dramatically from a lot of this, cause there's so many smart teams that are building cool tech that just won't figure out distribution and actually getting contracts. Yeah. Anderil will acquire them and they've already proven that…”
Coogan: AI apps will dynamically route user prompts across models automatically
“Very quickly, they're going to be able to put a router in front of that and dynamically decide, oh, this is a question that needs to go to oh, one. This is a question that needs to go to four. Four O or whatever, and all of that will become extracted.”
Hays: Jensen Huang's leather jacket will auction far above $60,000
“So there, the estimate from Sotheby's is 40 to 60,000 dollars. I just think this goes way higher. I think there's so many people that would love to own this just for the novelty of it. It's a very unique item that will be a part of history. And so 40 to 60 jus…”
Hays: AP and Swatch collaboration watches will trade far above retail
“I'm sure this swatch AP will end up retailing for Far more, or sorry, not retail, but secondary will be far more than whatever it goes out at.”
Russ d'Sa: AI models will implicitly match user pacing within two years
“Then there's another part of it, which I think will come in the next, you know, year or two where the model will implicitly be intelligent enough to pick up on what your pacing is or your state of mind is just based on the way that you're talking and expressin…”
D'Sa: Voice models will adapt to user pacing within two years
“Then there's another part of it, which I think will come in the next, you know, year or two where the model will implicitly be intelligent enough to pick up on what your pacing is or your state of mind is just based on the way that you're talking and expressin…”
Kim: Elon Musk will pitch space-based GPU satellites for SpaceX IPO
“I think Elon's pitch with the SpaceX IPO, and we'll see it in the coming months, is the AI compute, it's gonna be so, there's gonna be so much demand over the next five, 10 years, that you're gonna have to use these SpaceX satellites that have GPUs in them. To…”
Hays: Meta Stock Will Pop Higher When Layoffs Are Announced
“I would expect this to pop even harder once these layoffs are actually announced.”
Hays: ChatGPT ads will target interest graphs, not conversation content
“From what I understand, it won't be related to the content because people are going to be annoyed at that. I would expect it in the future. It is. But in the meantime, I think it'll effectively be display ads based on your interest graph, right? What they know…”
Hays: 2025 LA wildfires expected to exceed $200 billion in damage
“But as of right now, they're projecting that these fires will have cost somewhere in the range of a hundred and fifty billion dollars is the official number. As of now, everybody expects that to tick up over
200 at some point. I believe that Hurricane Katrina …”
Scott Wu predicts AI will win IMO gold in 2025 or 2026
“I think it's probably gonna happen this year. And if not this year, then next year.”
Coogan: A SpaceX IPO is coming around September or October 2026
“So, maybe September, maybe October, but, ah, it's coming.”
Jeff Yan: Hyperliquid Plans to Launch U.S. Equities Perpetuals By 2026
“There are already some perps on, so there are gold perps tokenized gold and there, I think the answer to when is probably in the next year, because HIP three I think is unlocking a lot of this. So basically letting, it lets anyone kind of come and deploy their…”
Coogan: Johor to match Northern Virginia data center capacity within years
“They're like a couple years away from having the same amount of Energy capacity as Northern Virginia, where like all the major AWS hubs are.”
Hays: Meta's MSL Will See More Exits Within Two Months
“I don't think this will be the last of the exits that we see out of MSL over the next even one or two months.”
Shah: Consumers will use AI agents for autonomous purchases within six months
“You just, and no one's really doing this yet, but it's going to happen, I think, you know, in the next six months. Is just tell your agent, you know, tell Gemini, tell ChatGPT, go buy these things, it has your credit card, and now that world that they were des…”
Shah: Anthropic will likely IPO in the next 3 to 6 months
“I have a strong suspicion that Anthropic is going to go, you know, in the next three to six months. They just have so much momentum and there's a lot of value being first.”
Gurman: Apple to release Gemini-powered Siri revamp in spring 2026
“The big AI thing for Apple is the revamped Siri coming out in the spring. They're using a Google Gemini model to power it, which I think is going to make it pretty top tier.”
Trump: Musk will criticize me personally next
“He hasn't said bad about me personally, but I'm sure that'll be next.”
Gurman: Google to launch smart glasses with Samsung and Warby Parker
“What you're going to see is Google come into this space, too. They're going to launch, you know, their smart glasses with Samsung in a few months, their glasses with Warby Parker and a few other glasses brands in a few months, and there's going to be a lot of …”
Bishop: Trump will delay $20 billion Taiwan arms sale until Xi meeting
“Over the weekend, you know, we saw, I think on Friday, the Financial Times reported, yes, there's a twenty billion dollar package in the works and it's something the Chinese don't want to have happen, and they have threatened to postpone or cancel Trump's visi…”
Gurman: Apple Will Not Remove ChatGPT-Siri Integration
“They're not taking that away. They're not taking it away.”
Cohen: Collectibles will likely account for close to a third of GameStop sales
“We've gone from, like, 10% of our sales to over, close to a third, probably, for the full year is gonna come from collectibles”
Walker: Initial Rolex Land-Dweller secondary sales will exceed double retail
“I imagine the premium for the initial examples will be certainly over double retail.”
Perret: Late-stage fintech IPOs like Klarna and Chime are coming soon
“You're about to see a couple of IPOs. So corn is coming soon. We think we've heard that China's coming soon and I've heard that a bunch of others are coming soon.”
Automakers will increase consumer incentives as the vehicle market sits 30% oversupplied
“I would say they're roughly like 30% oversupplied. So it's not, you know, these numbers are not low. We're sort of in this phase right now where it's the incentives are only going to keep getting better because the reality is the inventory is out there and it …”
Petersen Predicts US Tariffs Will Expand Beyond China and Vietnam
“I would predict, and I don't have any evidence for this, but my intuition tells me I would predict some tariffs on other countries besides just Vietnam, that a lot of these people think they have a safe haven for their products, but maybe we'll wake up to a ru…”
Bishop: DeepSeek will launch its next model within eight or nine days
“And so now everyone's waiting for DeepSeek's next model, which is supposed to launch on or around Lunar New Year, which is next Wednesday the 17th. So we should have some sort of a DeepSeek model in the next eight or nine days.”
Bishop: CCTV Spring Festival Gala will feature extensive robotics showcases
“China's got the Lunar New Year's coming up next week and Lunar New Year's Eve, the CCTV does this big spring festival gala with, you know, hundreds of millions people watch. It's going to be full of robots.”
Gurman: Apple will report its first $140B quarter in upcoming earnings
“And so they set themselves up for a pretty nice upgrade cycle, and you're gonna see that with their first hundred forty billion dollar quarter. When they report at the end of January, early February.”
Coogan: Anthropic won't air all four Super Bowl ads due to $80M cost
“Someone ran the numbers, and if they did all, if they aired all four, it would be something like eighty million dollars or something. I don't think that they're gonna run all four.”
Musk's DOGE Vehicle Will Likely Face Congressional or Legal Challenges
“I think the exact structure of Doge is evolving, and I think we'll go through a couple different maybe, maybe congressional or legal challenges, but it is evolving.”
Love: 1 to 3 defense startups will win $100M+ contracts this year
“I just think there's so much in your money up for grabs that I think by the end of the year, and hold me to this you're gonna see one, two, three companies that will get, I mean, high hundreds of millions of dollars of in-year revenue grabbed for real producti…”
Coogan: Tesla will finally deliver the new Roadster in 2025
“I think this is the year he's going to deliver it. It's been forever delayed, but now like everything's clear. Stocks at all time highs. Like he's got all the approvals and stuff. Like he needs a new halo car.”
Foody: AI agents will reliably handle flight booking and mundane tasks in 2025
“And so I think as that starts to happen, I would really expect that this year you're able to use operator or whatever the equivalent agent is to start booking flights and doing a lot of these more mundane tasks.”
Baszucki: Roblox will pay well over $1B to its creators in 2025
“Well over a billion dollars will flow back to Roblox creators this year.”
Hays: Next Apple Vision Pro will mostly just get faster chip
“The next version coming as soon as this year will mostly just get a faster chip.”
Stebbings: Endowment pullbacks will severely reduce new VC fund managers in 2025
“When I speak to a lot of endowments today, they're simply not adding new managers, and they're even trimming their existing, and so I think that's bluntly gonna really impact the amount of new managers that we see this year.”
Coogan: No AI-produced film will receive an Oscar nomination in 2025
“Not gonna happen in twenty-twenty-five, but probably soon.”
Coogan: TikTok ban is happening unless Trump overrides it
“There is a law that's passed that should ban TikTok. It's happening unless Trump overrides it.”