The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone John Coogan (33)Jordi Hays (14)Dylan Patel (4)Andrew Huberman (4)Brian Armstrong (3)Brad Gerstner (3)Tyler Cosgrove (2)Ted Feldmann (2)Tae Kim (2)Sean Frank (2)Sam Lessin (2)Mark Gurman (2)
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Next up (9)
109 days left 2026-12-31
109 days left 2026-12-31
Coogan: AI labs will likely solve the Millennium Prize problems this year
“I think that the millennium prize will get solved or proved or delivered probably this year, if not like this week, it feels like all of the different labs are like, Put a million dollars of inference on this. Put a million dollars of inference on this. There …”
474 days left 2027-12-31
786 days left 2028-11-07
Coogan: 2028 election will pit JD Vance against AOC or Buttigieg
“And so my bet that I would put on Polymarket right now is that The twenty-twenty-eight election is between JD Vance and AOC, or JD Vance and Buttigieg, because AOC and Buttigieg both can actually sit and be real people for several hours, and AOC's done it with…”
922 days left 2029-03-23
Coogan: Routine SpaceX Starship lunar cargo flights are 3-5 years away
“Starship needs to be refueling in orbit, landing on the moon with and without crews, because you're probably going to need some humans up there, some robots and we need to start routine cargo flights to the moon. So this is straight up like three to five years…”
922 days left 2029-03-23
Coogan predicts routine Starship lunar cargo flights are 3-5 years away
“Starship needs to be refueling in orbit, landing on the moon with and without crews, because you're probably going to need some humans up there, some robots and we need to start routine cargo flights to the moon. So this is straight up, like, three to five yea…”
5305 days left 2041-03-23
6629 days left 2044-11-06
Closed calls (17) the full record →
Coogan: Robotaxis will definitely have cameras monitoring passengers
“If you get in a robo taxi, there's definitely going to be a camera on you.”
Coogan: Data centers will use 500K tons of copper annually soon
“Data centers broadly will be using half a million tons of copper annually in a few years.”
Coogan: Humanity will invest half a trillion in AI by 2029
“If you just ask me, like, Will humanity invest half a trillion dollars in AI over the next four years? I'd be like, absolutely.”
Coogan: Anthropic's next major cluster will run on Amazon
“I believe Anthropic is pretty tightly hitched to Amazon, and I think the next big cluster from Anthropic will be powered by Amazon for the most part”
Coogan: Character.ai will be built on third-party APIs
“Character will be built on top of other APIs.”
Coogan: 'Ghost ship' startup acquisitions will become an increasingly common pattern
“I don't think this will be the last go ship we see. I think it's like a new pattern and we're just going to see this more and more.”
Coogan: Novo Nordisk supply will eventually severely limit compounded GLP-1s
“It may take a few more quarters, but Novo Nordisk will eventually produce enough supply to end the shortage of its drug. When that happens, despite their efforts to influence public opinion, Compounded versions will likely be severely limited.”
Coogan: OpenAI will introduce free-tier ads and up to $2,000/mo subscriptions
“Clearly all of that product stuff's getting ironed out and they're going to have ads in the free version all the way up to a 2000 dollar a month tier or 200 dollar a month tier.”
Coogan: AI apps will dynamically route user prompts across models automatically
“Very quickly, they're going to be able to put a router in front of that and dynamically decide, oh, this is a question that needs to go to oh, one. This is a question that needs to go to four. Four O or whatever, and all of that will become extracted.”
Coogan: A SpaceX IPO is coming around September or October 2026
“So, maybe September, maybe October, but, ah, it's coming.”
Coogan: Johor to match Northern Virginia data center capacity within years
“They're like a couple years away from having the same amount of Energy capacity as Northern Virginia, where like all the major AWS hubs are.”
Coogan: Anthropic won't air all four Super Bowl ads due to $80M cost
“Someone ran the numbers, and if they did all, if they aired all four, it would be something like eighty million dollars or something. I don't think that they're gonna run all four.”
Musk's DOGE Vehicle Will Likely Face Congressional or Legal Challenges
“I think the exact structure of Doge is evolving, and I think we'll go through a couple different maybe, maybe congressional or legal challenges, but it is evolving.”
Coogan: No AI-produced film will receive an Oscar nomination in 2025
“Not gonna happen in twenty-twenty-five, but probably soon.”