The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone John Coogan (33)Jordi Hays (14)Dylan Patel (4)Andrew Huberman (4)Brian Armstrong (3)Brad Gerstner (3)Tyler Cosgrove (2)Ted Feldmann (2)Tae Kim (2)Sean Frank (2)Sam Lessin (2)Mark Gurman (2)
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Next up (2)
1205 days left 2029-12-31
Closed calls (16) the full record →
Hays: Next trillion-dollar consumer company will be in healthcare
“You can make an argument that generally the next, that the next trillion dollar consumer company will be in healthcare.”
Hays: Founders Fund's SpaceX stake will reach around $150B
“Again, it's still, like, gonna be a hundred and fifty-ish billion dollar position.”
Hays: Users will be able to one-shot AI-generate design tools within years
“I would say I have a really strong conviction that in the next few years, you'll be able to one shot a design tool.”
Hays: Meta will pursue AI companionship but avoid romantic companion modes
“I still think they'll take more shots on goal around companionship. Will they go grok waifu mode? No. I don't think they want that revenue line.”
Hays: Figma IPO first-day close will exceed Adobe acquisition price
“Now Figma is going to IPO. And I would be shocked if they end the first trading day below the price that Adobe was going to pay.”
Hays: Peter Rahal's David Will Likely Be a $500M to $1B Outcome
“Like it'll clearly be somewhere, probably 500 to a billion dollar outcome again.”
Nikola Founder Trevor Milton Will Be Released From Prison in 2027
“He's going to be out of prison in 20, 27.”
Hayes: Anduril will acquire defense startups that fail at government distribution
“Andrew roll, I think benefits dramatically from a lot of this, cause there's so many smart teams that are building cool tech that just won't figure out distribution and actually getting contracts. Yeah. Anderil will acquire them and they've already proven that…”
Hays: Jensen Huang's leather jacket will auction far above $60,000
“So there, the estimate from Sotheby's is 40 to 60,000 dollars. I just think this goes way higher. I think there's so many people that would love to own this just for the novelty of it. It's a very unique item that will be a part of history. And so 40 to 60 jus…”
Hays: AP and Swatch collaboration watches will trade far above retail
“I'm sure this swatch AP will end up retailing for Far more, or sorry, not retail, but secondary will be far more than whatever it goes out at.”
Hays: Meta Stock Will Pop Higher When Layoffs Are Announced
“I would expect this to pop even harder once these layoffs are actually announced.”
Hays: ChatGPT ads will target interest graphs, not conversation content
“From what I understand, it won't be related to the content because people are going to be annoyed at that. I would expect it in the future. It is. But in the meantime, I think it'll effectively be display ads based on your interest graph, right? What they know…”
Hays: 2025 LA wildfires expected to exceed $200 billion in damage
“But as of right now, they're projecting that these fires will have cost somewhere in the range of a hundred and fifty billion dollars is the official number. As of now, everybody expects that to tick up over
200 at some point. I believe that Hurricane Katrina …”
Hays: Meta's MSL Will See More Exits Within Two Months
“I don't think this will be the last of the exits that we see out of MSL over the next even one or two months.”