recession

also referred to as: recessions

22 statements across 20 episodes · 2 bullish · 16 bearish · 5 people on the record · first statement May 21, 2020 by Jason Calacanis · across every show →

Everything said about recession, oldest first

May 21, 2020 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Remote work could create unprecedented company efficiency and profitability
“My thesis on this in terms of getting out of the recession, I think remote work could lead to a level of efficiency and profitability in the companies that we have never seen before.”
Jason Calacanis May 21, 2020 ▶ 40:07 E3: Modern Cold War, politicizing the pandemic & more with David Sacks & David Friedberg
Jan 15, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya predicts post-pandemic inflation could trigger an ultimate recession
“What it's really created has been this massive bout of inflation, which then could cause an ultimate recession because the Fed has to react.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jan 15, 2022 ▶ 1:00:50 E63: Insurrection indictments, human rights in the US and abroad, groundbreaking MS study and more
Feb 5, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath predicts retail over-inventory could trigger a severe recession
“The next step beyond all of the supply chain issues could be and I think Saks has been talking about this a lot, like a pretty bad recession if these companies have all this inventory and they don't know how to get working capital.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 16:54 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Feb 5, 2022 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Federal Reserve rate hikes could cause a recession
“The Fed now is raising rates or projecting raising rates very quickly, which is creating, it was created a huge market downturn. It's a very blunt instrument. It could cause a downturn or a recession.”
David Sacks Feb 5, 2022 ▶ 44:18 E66: $FB's big drop, Rogan/Spotify mess, Xi/Putin meetup & supply chain issues with Ryan Petersen
Mar 5, 2022
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: A 50% energy price spike always triggers a recession
“It is always the case that when energy prices spike by 50%, we enter a recession.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Mar 5, 2022 ▶ 21:58 E71: Russia/Ukraine deep dive: escalation, risk factors, financial fallout, exit ramps and more
Mar 26, 2022 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Oil crossing $120 per barrel has historically always preceded a recession
“We've never had oil over a 120 bucks and not gone into a recession.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 26, 2022 ▶ 1:27:26 E73: Late-stage VC markdowns and mistakes, market strategy, Ukraine/Russia update with Brad Gerstner
Apr 1, 2022 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Sacks: Yield curve inversion signals 98% chance of recession within two years
“Historically, it's meant when the yield curve inverts, there's been a better than two-thirds chance of recession at some point in the next year, and greater than 98% chance of recession at some point in the next two years.”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 24:21 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 1, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Sacks predicts the US economy will face a recession or near-recession
“We're definitely going into a slowdown. And whether it becomes a recession to be determined, I think there's a very good chance because We already were headed for a slowdown because of interest rate increases because of inflation. And now on top of it, we've g…”
David Sacks Apr 1, 2022 ▶ 13:48 E74: Market update, inverted yield curve, immigration, new SPAC rules, $FB smears TikTok and more
Apr 16, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Palihapitiya: Europe faces a severe recession due to inflation and war
“Europe is going to be the canary in the coal mine on all of this because I think they feel this pretty severely. And I think there's a lot of exhaustion amongst European governments and leaders when you start to listen to this rhetoric. To kind of, you know, f…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 16, 2022 ▶ 17:57 E76.5: Food shortage, China's grand plan, inflation, French election plus an All-In Summit preview
May 13, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks: A major economic recession is now inevitable
“I think, like, recession now is just inevitable. You, to Jamal's point, you can't have 14% of global wealth wiped out practically overnight and not have that translate into a big recession.”
David Sacks May 13, 2022 ▶ 16:38 E80: Recession deep dive: VC psychology, macro risks, Tiger Global, predictions and more
Jun 7, 2022 bearish
Assertion Supported
Gracias: US economy is currently in a recession
“Look, we think, I think we're in a recession. I mean, I'll, I don't know if someone's already said this, but we're in a recession. We're in a recession.”
Antonio Gracias Jun 7, 2022 ▶ 12:00 #AIS: Bestie AMA with Valor's Antonio Gracias
Jul 29, 2022 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Excessive Fed tightening will cause a serious recession
“The reality is we do not want Powell tightening more than he should or more than is necessary to solve inflation because it will cause a serious recession.”
David Sacks Jul 29, 2022 ▶ 17:31 E89: GDP growth negative in Q2, $SHOP layoffs, Alzheimer's fraud, Ginkgo acquires Zymergen & more
Sep 10, 2022 bearish
Prediction Held up
Palihapitiya: Europe faces at least a recession from its energy crisis
“The entire continent of Europe is probably on the precipice of and the minimum of recession. But frankly, there's a lot of scenarios where it could be meaningfully worse.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Sep 10, 2022 ▶ 24:30 E95: Winter is Coming, Europe's energy crisis, Kim Kardashian's new PE firm & more
Nov 19, 2022 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sacks: US will experience a severe economic recession in 2023
“I think we all believe that we're gonna have a pretty severe recession next year.”
David Sacks Nov 19, 2022 ▶ 15:25 E105: Tech culture wars: Elon vs. SBF, Sabotaging Republicans with Trump
Dec 24, 2022 neutral
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Chamath: The recession will end in mid-2024
“Mid-twenty-four is when the recession ends, and you need to give yourself two to three quarters of buffer so that you can go and raise around, which takes a quarter to two quarters.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Dec 24, 2022 ▶ 1:44:42 E109: 2022 Bestie Awards Live from Twitter HQ
Apr 28, 2023 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2024
Sacks: US will still enter a recession despite big tech earnings
“I'm sticking by it. I think we're still gonna have a recession, but it is an interesting paradox here.”
David Sacks Apr 28, 2023 ▶ 1:07:07 E126: Big Tech blow-out, Powell’s recession warning, lab-grown meat, RFK Jr shakes up race & more
Jul 21, 2023 negative
Prediction Not publicly verifiable
Sacks: Biden likely wins 2024 rematch against Trump barring recession or Ukraine collapse
“I think right now it looks like we're on track to have a Biden-Trump rematch, and right now Biden probably looks like he's gonna win, barring a recession happening or the Ukrainian side collapsing in, in the war.”
David Sacks Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 1:47:22 In conversation with Vivek Ramaswamy
Dec 29, 2023 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sacks: B2B software industry recession has bottomed out
“I do think that the whole B to B software industry definitely went through a recession, but fortunately, I think we bottomed out and are starting to see green shoots now.”
David Sacks Dec 29, 2023 ▶ 1:19:49 E159: The Bestie Awards! Recapping the best and worst of 2023
May 24, 2024 negative
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Over half of Americans believe the US is in a recession
“More than half of Americans think we're in a recession.”
Jason Calacanis May 24, 2024 ▶ 40:06 Scarlett Johansson vs OpenAI, Nvidia's trillion-dollar problem, a vibecession, plastic in our balls
Jul 4, 2024 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath Palihapitiya: Rick's Cabaret stock price presaged the last two recessions
“What's interesting about the Rick's Cabaret stock price is that it has presaged the last two recessions.”
Chamath Palihapitiya Jul 4, 2024 ▶ 1:02:03 Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship
Aug 2, 2024 bearish
Assertion Contradicted
Chamath: The United States is currently in an economic recession
“I think we're in a recession”
Chamath Palihapitiya Aug 2, 2024 ▶ 34:23 Kamala surges, Trump at NABJ, recession fears, Middle East escalation, Ackman postpones IPO
Apr 11, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chamath: Cutting government waste spending will reveal a US technical recession
“As Doge sort of slows down that money flow, and as the consensus in Congress gets to a better budget, I think that you're going to see that the government was probably responsible for a hundred to a 150 basis points of just waste. And if you take that out. You…”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 11, 2025 ▶ 1:03:26 The Great Tariff Debate with David Sacks, Larry Summers, and Ezra Klein
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