Autonomous Vehicles

“So I think, you know, it's probably another 10 years where anyone with a brain is, is gonna have this be their primary Mode of ownership if you're not in the country or you don't have niche use cases.”

“Because like ride sharing at the end of the day is price reliability and safety. That's all it is. That's what it was 10 years ago. I think that's what it's going to be 10 years from now, even when it's autonomous vehicles. It's like price, reliability, safety…”

“Which is why I do think in some future world, maybe not five years, but 15 or 20 years, Everyone's going to be like Harry. Nobody's going to own a car. Nobody's going to have their driver's license because you'll be able to get around. And I think bikes and sc…”

“It's existential because at the end of the day, it's a better product than our core product in many use cases, and I think those use cases grow over time, and eventually it's better in all use cases.”

“If Uber doesn't have autonomy on our platform, and we will we will, we are investing actively and aggressively to bring it to market, but if we didn't, then it certainly would be existential for our core business.”

“Like, I think that you and I could be buying the very last drive driven cars. Like, I think that in five to 10 years time, like our kids will not need to drive.”

“My latest hot take is that self-driving technology is commoditizing as fast as LLM technology and that companies that take it seriously and actually prioritize it. It is not some insane insane tech breakthrough that cannot be implemented in other vehicles. It …”

“Autonomous vehicles are almost certainly endemically electric vehicles. Like, it makes more sense for them to be electric vehicles, and the proof is in the pudding. All of the autonomous vehicles on the road today are electric vehicles, right? That is true of …”

“The U.S. Leads in technological innovation, but China, once again, is quicker when it comes to commercialization. Not only inside China, but we're seeing the Chinese autonomous vehicle makers move into the Middle East, and in the U.K. And Germany now, moving q…”

“The corner cases are impossible to fathom at this, you know, right now. Yeah, maybe at some point. I mean, I certainly think if it were in a world where That didn't have the randomness of the real world. So if you were in a G, a geographic area where all of th…”

“They're going to get sued for wrongful death. When somebody runs over somebody else, and you could have implemented a solution that has a zero death rate.”

“Kids will still have to learn to drive in 20 years from now, even if we have massive adoption just because of the production challenges and the adoption curve.”

“I think autonomous vehicles, I mean, if they're going to get adopted on scale, both trucking and for passenger use over time, it'll be the biggest public health victory since the efforts to cease smoking. By, you know, we have, it's the greatest reason that pe…”

“Same way, it will be immoral to drive your own car manually on a public road because it's more likely to cause unwanted damage.”

“There's a big difference between a car that is safer, that drives itself versus a car that a human drives, because you have an existence proof of the human driving car and you have the data. When you talk about homes, what is the delta? You have now a thing th…”

“Freeways, for most of the time, not much happens. They're very well structured, because we designed them that way. But there is still that long tail of really complicated stuff that happens where the consequences Of, you know, bed event are much more severe, r…”

“It's deceptively easy to get started, but it is super hard to go, you know, the full distance and, you know, the number of knives, right? That you have to, like, there's, The standard, you know, engineering rule of thumb that, you know, every next nine takes, …”

“I think like the most obvious use cases that will come early are going to be use cases where you get the most amount of bang for buck. And the bang for buck is a car that drives itself or a mining robot, which is a mining vehicle, which is now intelligent. And…”

“It will not be a long time. You're already seeing this happen in China where the downward pricing pressure for that autonomous product for the lack of better word will become close to free. So now you fast forward five to seven years and every car Has some lev…”

“The differences in the way it drives or feels are going to be more about like, what's the UI, the user interface of it.”

“An inevitable transformation that we are going to go from using humans driving cars that weigh, you know, 4000 pounds and burn gas to a world where we're going to be using vehicles that weigh 50 pounds and are electric and autonomous.”

“So I agree that there will be cases where we will need those really low latencies, and that is going to require edge computing much closer to the user, so we have much shorter internet delays, network delays.”

“Part of the shift to electric vehicles, obviously we have EVs today, but as we shift to more autonomous vehicles, all those vehicles are going to be electric as well.”

“Autonomous vehicles do not need as much data labeling as they did in the past.”

“The story for autonomous vehicles is, is that even after the industry's put a hundred billion dollars in it, a hundred billion, the unit economics are still, you know, let's call it on par with Uber.”

“You know, within 10 years, you're gonna see a significant number of autonomous vehicles, especially in developed markets.”

“When you think about the next generation technologies that will define the 21st century, whether that's Autonomous vehicles or robotics or the data centers that enable AI, drone technology. All of that has to have a rare earth magnet turning that motor, sensor…”

“While autonomous will probably someday displace the driver and therefore displace their earnings power, you can swap that earnings power for the ability to contribute capital, right? So the medallion becomes a capital asset that they contribute into the system…”

“When you verticalize all this stuff, it's so expensive that literally the costs will crush you.”

“There's a bunch of things that red states are doing better than blue states, and we should learn from them. We should do that. We should say housing prices and construction. Exactly. You're mentioning regulatory allowing things like, for example, autonomous ve…”

“Scale really matters. It's more of like an industrial question than a technology question at this point, and, ah, yeah, they seem really set up for it.”

“I don't think, I think it's going to be a lot longer. But like in 20, it could be 20 years, 25 years. It's not going to be in the next five years, but yeah, it's going to be a hobby.”

“The arms are already good enough. It's the off the shelf arms are fine. It's all software. Again, it's always all software. Autonomous vehicles are all software. Robotics is all software”

“Even to look at autonomous vehicles, I mean, as an industry, we've invested, like, what, a hundred billion dollars in it.”

“Fusion is going to be really great for mobility and stuff. So like autonomous vehicles, fusion powered, like an Android dive XL or something like that. Like, I think that's going to be a really great application for fusion in defensive space.”

“Once you have general purpose humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, you can build anything. There's no actual limit to the size of the economy.”

“The cost of LiDAR systems has come way down, I think, 90% in the past 15 years. And that's largely been driven by investments in autonomous vehicles, right?”

“I think the question you have to ask if you're considering a robotic solution is just, like, how long is the tail of weird stuff that might come up, that it might have to deal with, and in, Autonomy, the autonomous vehicle case, that tail is extremely long, ri…”

“Once you get to like, you know, 50% remote assistance or even 25% at 25% remote assistance, you've already reduced the labor costs, you know, 75%. And so you're almost already at the diminishing returns point.”

“The only candidate today, the only companies that stand a chance are the ones where, you know, they can afford to take on that liability. Cause they're a giant tech company that makes money in other places. You know, otherwise it's very bleak.”

“I hope that we're gonna get to the place where the technology and the costs are sorted out over the next five years, and then it's probably going to be a couple more years after that for the regulation to get sorted.”

“And then they're a little bit different, but if we're talking about full autonomy, maybe there's second order differences, But the first order of complexity is still there. You can, ah, like the, if you think about, you know, the core, the heart of the problem…”

“Well, autonomy is like the given. I think most people would probably agree with that. And you know, we'll probably solve it with just cameras and we'll need LIDAR cause humans don't have LIDAR and you know, the cost of vehicles and sensors will come down, remo…”

“So, so then that from, for me, it's like, well, from first principles, shared rides is, is going to continue to be an important part of the future transportation and other modalities where, yeah, back to the three mile thing. It's like, well, it probably will …”

“I personally believe that self-driving cars at some point in time will happen, but I don't know when my bet is my daughter is now 10, and I have always said, I don't think she's going to get a driver's license, but that's eight years out, right?”

“What's going to prevent this for what I think has a hope of preventing this from just being a hype cycle that falls flat like AB is that those things are, those shoes are yet to drop. And as they do, the capabilities of these models are going to continue to im…”

“We've invested seventy five billion dollars as an industry, and while we do have autonomous vehicles on the road, and they're great, and they're solving real problems, the unit economics are still worse than, say, Uber and Lyft, because they're competing again…”

“When you think about simulation in self-driving car, like we are really mostly thinking about systems that hopefully don't physically interact with each other, right? Like if two cars get in contact with each other, that's a really terrible thing, right? And s…”

“Oh, oh, it will. It's just, like, decades, you know, it's not, like, next year, you know?”

“The question is, is I think it's more like 10 years before this is fully deployed.”

“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”

“So for example, for that pedestrian, ah, in addition to seeing that they're there, acknowledging, which was this problem one, you got to look at even their gait, their hand movement, their leg movement to anticipate, are they about to take motion?”

“It depends on the context. If you're on a busy street like that, and somebody's going to a business, they would like to be dropped very likely in front of the business they're going to. Whereas if they are getting out of home, going to work, and it's a narrow …”

“Specifically about the steering wheel block. Currently by regulations beyond a certain number of vehicles and so on.”

“It thinks about many small details. Where is it positioning itself? How much gap is it leaving? What's its velocity so that it has the greatest optionality if somebody were to behave recklessly. So when we are crossing that sign, we're not assuming that everyb…”

“And by the time he grows up, this will be the more common route.”

“My instinct is that you will see small scale continued experiments kind of get bigger over the next five years, but it's going to take a good 10 years for it to be a material part of our network or transportation at large. But that's a guess.”

“And in research, going from 80% to a hundred percent is really hard. I think that you'll be seeing that in, like, autonomous vehicles where, like, it's always, like, two years ahead and, like, always 80%, but, like, that 20, 10% is just really hard. This is re…”

“Hey, you can be very safe if you're not moving at all. That's not what we're building, right? We need to make sure that the riders get to their destination on time. So it has to be making, it has to be appropriately assertive and be making the right progress.”

“Like, I actually think that within 10 years, we will strongly want a world in which it's only autonomous vehicles on the road and not human beings.”