autonomous vehicles

4 statements across 3 episodes · 3 bullish · 1 bearish · 3 people on the record · first statement Oct 6, 2023 by Kyle Vogt · across every show →

Everything said about autonomous vehicles, oldest first

Oct 6, 2023 bullish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 years
“What I do expect is, you know, within two or three years, most likely, I think the. Majority of new car sales will transition to vehicles where people don't have to drive because once you have that choice, I have a hard time believing that people are going to …”
Kyle Vogt Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 38:20 Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt — Self Driving Cars Will 10X Every Year
Jul 17, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Siemiatkowski predicts 10-year-olds won't need driver's licenses due to autonomous vehicles
“I personally believe that self-driving cars at some point in time will happen, but I don't know when my bet is my daughter is now 10, and I have always said, I don't think she's going to get a driver's license, but that's eight years out, right?”
Sebastian Siemiatkowski Jul 17, 2024 ▶ 37:48 Did Klarna Really Automate 700 Jobs With AI? — With Sebastian Siemiatkowski
May 22, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Plouffe: Autonomous vehicles will be biggest public health win since anti-smoking
“I think autonomous vehicles, I mean, if they're going to get adopted on scale, both trucking and for passenger use over time, it'll be the biggest public health victory since the efforts to cease smoking. By, you know, we have, it's the greatest reason that pe…”
David Plouffe May 22, 2026 ▶ 35:08 How AI Changes Society, And Society Changes AI — With Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe
May 22, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2046
Plouffe: Kids will still have to learn to drive in 20 years
“Kids will still have to learn to drive in 20 years from now, even if we have massive adoption just because of the production challenges and the adoption curve.”
David Plouffe May 22, 2026 ▶ 20:25 How AI Changes Society, And Society Changes AI — With Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe
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