autonomous vehicles

22 statements across 16 episodes · 13 bullish · 6 bearish · 16 people on the record · first statement Jun 1, 2016 by Nikhil Basu Trivedi · across every show →

Everything said about autonomous vehicles, oldest first

Jun 1, 2016 bullish
Prediction Held up
Basu Trivedi: Autonomous vehicles will reach Level 3 automation very soon
“I think that we are at level two, because that's where, you know, it's adaptive cruise control, and the ability for a car to stay in a lane, and change lanes, but we're increasingly going towards level three, and I think we'll be at level three very, very soon…”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 5:39 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures
Jun 1, 2016 bearish
Prediction Held up
Basu Trivedi: Level 4 fully autonomous vehicles will take over two years
“To level four, where a driver doesn't have to be in the car, and where a vehicle can drive autonomously without anyone in the car, that's a big shift. That's something that is not going to happen in the next couple years.”
Nikhil Basu Trivedi Jun 1, 2016 ▶ 18:58 20VC: The Future For Autonomous Vehicles & How Software Is Eating Cars with Nikhil Basu Trivedi, Investor @ Shasta Ventures
Jul 4, 2016 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Miura-Ko: Autonomous Vehicles and Ridesharing Will Reshape Suburbs
“And now as we layer on top of that autonomous vehicles, the potential for what they do goes far beyond car ownership. I think it can also change where suburbs are actually created.”
Ann Miura-Ko Jul 4, 2016 ▶ 21:24 20VC: The 4 Required Powers For A Startup To Be A $500m Business with "The Most Powerful Woman in Startups", Ann Miura Ko, Co-Founder @ Floodgate
Sep 7, 2016 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
DeMarrais: Autonomous Vehicle Fleets Will Make Car Ownership Obsolete
“I think car ownership is, is, is going to be a thing of the past because when autonomous vehicles come around, you know, there'll be these fleets of vehicles. You can just call on one button. I think it'll be cheaper. It'll be more convenient.”
Brett DeMarrais Sep 7, 2016 ▶ 15:10 20VC: What Is Wrong With The VC Industry, Why VC Is A Customer Service Game and Why Car Ownership Will Be A Thing Of The Past with Brett DeMarrais, Partner @ Ludlow Ventures
Oct 31, 2016 negative
Insight
Hamid: Public Market Scrutiny Stops Tech Companies From Pursuing Bold Experiments
“When money is available at will at great valuations for these companies so that they can experiment and do autonomous vehicles and You know, when you spend five hundred million on a project that Wall Street just like, this is stupid, and why are you doing this…”
Mamoon Hamid Oct 31, 2016 ▶ 22:30 20VC: Social Capital's Mamoon Hamid on Disrupting The Venture Model & Advancing Humanity By Solving The World's Toughest Problems
Feb 27, 2017 bullish
Prediction Partly held up
Belsky: Uber and Lyft's data and route optimization will be their moat
“Because I think that the data that is being collected and the optimization of the routes based on the data is a moat, so to speak. And I think a lot of the technology for managing these dispatch systems and autonomous vehicles will be created by those companie…”
Scott Belsky Feb 27, 2017 ▶ 18:40 20VC: Benchmark's Scott Belsky on What Makes Truly The Best VCs? Why Entrepreneurs Must Focus on 'The First Mile' & The Key Ingredients To The Perfect Onboarding Process
May 3, 2017 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Real estate valuations will react to AVs well before mass adoption
“Even though the mass adoption might not happen for a long time now, I think the impact on real estate could happen on a much more accelerated basis.”
Brendan Wallace May 3, 2017 ▶ 24:08 20VC: How LPs Can Add Strategic Value To Portfolio Companies & Why Real Estate Is On Every Whiteboard In Silicon Valley with Brendan Wallace, Co-Founder @ Fifth Wall
May 3, 2017 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2027
Airport parking will be largely obsolete by 2027 due to AVs
“No one's going to park a car at an airport probably in 10 years, or very few people will.”
Brendan Wallace May 3, 2017 ▶ 18:08 20VC: How LPs Can Add Strategic Value To Portfolio Companies & Why Real Estate Is On Every Whiteboard In Silicon Valley with Brendan Wallace, Co-Founder @ Fifth Wall
Aug 11, 2017 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2022
Hargreaves: Gas stations and rest stops will suffer from AV adoption
“I think gas stations, rest stops in particular, take a huge hit off of this between moving to autonomous vehicles and moving to electric vehicles as well.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 15:27 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Aug 11, 2017 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hargreaves: Autonomous vehicles will not significantly disrupt city urbanization
“So hesitant to say, just given a lot of natural preferences that go towards cities, that AVs are going to really disrupt things that much.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 13:52 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Apr 2, 2018 bullish
Prediction Held up
Chen: Autonomous vehicle winners will reach $100 billion valuations
“A large consumer outcome, or even some of these autonomous vehicle outcomes, are going to be a hundred billion plus or minus companies, right? Or tens of billions. If, you know, autonomous vehicles become a reality, that's going to disrupt a multi-trillion dol…”
Jerry Chen Apr 2, 2018 ▶ 11:31 20VC: Greylock's Jerry Chen on The 2 Fundamentals To Assessing Startup Risk, Why Good Investors Have To Be Optimistic & Why VCs Get In Trouble When They Move Outside Their "Strike Zone"
Feb 25, 2019 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2024
Chen: Autonomous vehicles will eliminate urban parking lots
“First, all the parking lots can go away because the cars will constantly be in motion. The fleet operators will need that to drive the efficiency and utilization out of their cars, and so if the car is not carrying you, it's carrying goods, and if it's not car…”
Frank Chen Feb 25, 2019 ▶ 24:30 20VC: a16z Partner Frank Chen on The Future of Car Ownership, Whether The High Employee Attrition Rate in The Valley Is A Feature or A Bug & His Biggest Lessons From Netscape, Loudcloud & Opsware
Jul 5, 2019 positive
Prediction Held up
Rodrigues: Autonomous vehicles will be fleet-owned public utilities, not private assets
“The people who will own this will be fleets, and they'll be available sort of on the push of a button.”
Alex Rodrigues Jul 5, 2019 ▶ 14:31 20VC: Why Self-Driving Is Still Under-Hyped in The Medium To Long Term, What Will The Ownership Mechanism Be Both In Physical Assets & Data and How To Assemble A World Class Exec Team As A Young Founder with Alex Rodrigues, Founder & CEO @ Embark
Aug 26, 2019 negative
Insight
Vernal: Synthetic data cannot resolve extreme edge cases in autonomous driving
“The hard part of driving a car autonomously is the edge cases that live beyond 99.99, and I think those ones are just hard to imagine, let alone generate synthetically.”
Mike Vernal Aug 26, 2019 ▶ 21:06 20VC: Sequoia's Mike Vernal on His Biggest Lessons From 8 Years of Hyper-Growth at Facebook, Why The Strength of Data Moats Is Over-Rated Today and The Challenge of "Overthinking Investments" In Venture
Jun 24, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Luan: AI will not plateau like autonomous vehicles due to ongoing model breakthroughs
“What's going to prevent this for what I think has a hope of preventing this from just being a hype cycle that falls flat like AB is that those things are, those shoes are yet to drop. And as they do, the capabilities of these models are going to continue to im…”
David Luan Jun 24, 2024 ▶ 46:03 David Luan: Why Nvidia Will Enter the Model Space & Models Will Enter the Chip Space | E1169 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Nov 13, 2024 neutral
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2031
Villig: Autonomous vehicles are 7+ years away from full regulatory approval
“I hope that we're gonna get to the place where the technology and the costs are sorted out over the next five years, and then it's probably going to be a couple more years after that for the regulation to get sorted.”
Markus Villig Nov 13, 2024 ▶ 1:14:10 Markus Villig, Founder @Bolt: The Most Insane Story in Startups & The Future of Self-Driving| E1225 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Aug 7, 2026 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2036
Frankel: In 5 to 10 years, our children will not need to drive
“Like, I think that you and I could be buying the very last drive driven cars. Like, I think that in five to 10 years time, like our kids will not need to drive.”
David Frankel Aug 7, 2026 ▶ 1:29:14 The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses? | David Frankel
Aug 17, 2026 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2046
Macdonald: In 15-20 Years, Nobody Will Own a Car or License
“Which is why I do think in some future world, maybe not five years, but 15 or 20 years, Everyone's going to be like Harry. Nobody's going to own a car. Nobody's going to have their driver's license because you'll be able to get around. And I think bikes and sc…”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 17:02 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Aug 17, 2026
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Macdonald: Price, reliability, and safety will define ride-sharing in 10 years
“Because like ride sharing at the end of the day is price reliability and safety. That's all it is. That's what it was 10 years ago. I think that's what it's going to be 10 years from now, even when it's autonomous vehicles. It's like price, reliability, safety…”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 5:52 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Aug 17, 2026 bullish
Opinion
Macdonald: Missing Out on Autonomy Would Be Existential for Uber
“If Uber doesn't have autonomy on our platform, and we will we will, we are investing actively and aggressively to bring it to market, but if we didn't, then it certainly would be existential for our core business.”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 18:52 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Aug 17, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mac: Autonomy will eventually be superior to human rides in all use cases
“It's existential because at the end of the day, it's a better product than our core product in many use cases, and I think those use cases grow over time, and eventually it's better in all use cases.”
Andrew Macdonald (Mac) Aug 17, 2026 ▶ 17:46 Uber President on Travis, China & Self-Driving | Why Autonomy Is Existential | How to Beat DoorDash
Sep 10, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Autonomous transit will replace urban car ownership within 10 years
“So I think, you know, it's probably another 10 years where anyone with a brain is, is gonna have this be their primary Mode of ownership if you're not in the country or you don't have niche use cases.”
Jason Lemkin Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 46:12 Jensen Huang Declares AGI Has Arrived | Tesla Launches Cybercabs | Index Pulls Out of Town
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