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Brad Hargreaves

Founder and Editor-in-Chief, Thesis Driven · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

founderexecutiveauthorinvestor@bhargreaves ↗LinkedIn ↗bhargreaves.com ↗

Hargreaves co-founded General Assembly, an education company focused on tech and design skills, and later founded Common, a co-living and multifamily management company. Today, he publishes Thesis Driven, an analysis platform for real estate innovation, and writes on urban economic policy.

14statements → 11claims → 7claims resolved → 14%fully supported → 3.64/5average certainty → 2.43/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 5said about them ↓

1 supported 2 partly supported 4 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 3 not checkable as stated how the 11 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

4 predictions · 7 assertions · 1 opinion · 1 insight · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 11 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 7 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 3 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Brad argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Hargreaves: The US is significantly over-retailed compared to European cities
“Keep in mind that the United States is wildly over retail in comparison to other developed countries. The U.S. Has some Retail space per capita than most major European cities.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 11:52 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted
Hargreaves: US business creation is at its lowest since the Great Depression
“Fewer businesses are getting started today than have been started at any point since the Great Depression.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 18:17 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
50% certainty 3
25% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: speaking style how? →

197 words/min while actually speaking · 5.4 um and uh per 1k words

No argument clarity score for Brad Hargreaves: no usable question→answer exchanges on raw tape (a fair score needs 8+). We do not score a sample that small. Roundtable and news formats yield far fewer direct exchanges than interviews. Their coarse estimate from 15 exchanges on the produced feed is ≈4.5/5, shown at half point precision because the sample is small and produced tape scores higher.

Measured by listening to 3,549 words across 1 episode, but every recording we have of Brad Hargreaves is the aired feed, and an editor cleaned that audio before release. Some of the hesitation was cut before we ever heard it, so read these as floors: the true rates are at least this high. These are measurements of speaking style, not scores. How it's measured →

How the interview went all their pushback → series average →

Across 1 rated episode:

host pushback ▾ 3/10
pushed back at the host ▾ 2/10
setup questions received 20%

Everything Brad Hargreaves said on 20VC that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Assertion Contradicted
Hargreaves: US business creation is at its lowest since the Great Depression
“Fewer businesses are getting started today than have been started at any point since the Great Depression.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 18:17 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Opinion
Hargreaves: California homeownership requires tech wealth or parental real estate
“So you pretty much can't own a home in California unless you make it big in tech or parents own a home.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 21:32 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Prediction Partly held up
Hargreaves predicts severe economic pain for commercial retail landlords
“If I am neutral on residential, I am very bearish on retail in particular, and I think, you know, we're just at the beginning stages of the immense amount of pain That retail landlords are going to face.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 9:34 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Assertion Contradicted
Hargreaves: Millennials are poorer than their parents in income and wealth
“This is the first generation in American history to be poorer than their parents from an income standpoint, from a wealth standpoint”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 16:12 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hargreaves: Urban real estate prices will not see vast continued appreciation
“I actually still believe that people are going to, do want to live in cities. There's a huge attraction to urban centers, but I guess I just don't see it appreciating vastly beyond where it is right now.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 9:10 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hargreaves: Autonomous vehicles will not significantly disrupt city urbanization
“So hesitant to say, just given a lot of natural preferences that go towards cities, that AVs are going to really disrupt things that much.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 13:52 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hargreaves: Every Common co-living location generates positive cash flow
“Well, we have a model that works, Every one of our homes makes money and sends cash back to common, and the economics are good, and the members are happy.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 25:19 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Insight
Hargreaves: Scalable businesses do not require every operation to scale perfectly
“I think there are some aspects that scale and some aspects that don't, and not Everything has to scale, so property management is just one of those things, for instance, that you hire one person for every X members, and the distribution channels, however, do s…”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 25:42 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Assertion Contradicted
Hargreaves: NYC and SF renters spend up to 65% of income
“In most of these cities, it's well above 50%. In New York, it's between 55 and 60. In San Francisco, it's between 60 and 65.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 7:11 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Assertion Supported
Hargreaves: The US is significantly over-retailed compared to European cities
“Keep in mind that the United States is wildly over retail in comparison to other developed countries. The U.S. Has some Retail space per capita than most major European cities.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 11:52 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2022
Hargreaves: Gas stations and rest stops will suffer from AV adoption
“I think gas stations, rest stops in particular, take a huge hit off of this between moving to autonomous vehicles and moving to electric vehicles as well.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 15:27 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Assertion Partly supported
Hargreaves: Licensed US industries grew from a dozen in 1970 to hundreds
“If you look at the number of industries or fields that have, that require occupational licenses, it's gone from something like a dozen in 1970 to hundreds today.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 16:52 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Assertion Contradicted
Hargreaves: 750,000 NYC households are shared roommate apartments
“Three quarters of a million households in New York alone are shared apartments, roommates of some sort.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 3:51 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common
Disclosure
Hargreaves: Common prices co-living at a 20% discount to studio apartments
“Common tends to price at about a 20% discount to a Traditional studio. Ours is an all-in price that includes Wi-Fi, utilities, cleaning, etc.”
Brad Hargreaves Aug 11, 2017 ▶ 8:23 20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish on Retail & Why Fewer Businesses Are Getting Started Today Since The Great Depression with Brad Hargreaves, Founder & CEO @ Common

The other half of the tape: Brad Hargreaves's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 5 times in 3 episodes on 20VC. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Harry Stebbings 3Sam Lessin 2

Every mention by year

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
20VC: Why Not Every Element of A Scalable Business Has To Scale, Why You Should Be Bearish Aug 11, 2017 19m
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