The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hargreaves: US business creation is at its lowest since the Great Depression
“Fewer businesses are getting started today than have been started at any point since the Great Depression.”
Hargreaves: California homeownership requires tech wealth or parental real estate
“So you pretty much can't own a home in California unless you make it big in tech or parents own a home.”
Hargreaves predicts severe economic pain for commercial retail landlords
“If I am neutral on residential, I am very bearish on retail in particular, and I think, you know, we're just at the beginning stages of the immense amount of pain That retail landlords are going to face.”
Hargreaves: Millennials are poorer than their parents in income and wealth
“This is the first generation in American history to be poorer than their parents from an income standpoint, from a wealth standpoint”
Hargreaves: Urban real estate prices will not see vast continued appreciation
“I actually still believe that people are going to, do want to live in cities. There's a huge attraction to urban centers, but I guess I just don't see it appreciating vastly beyond where it is right now.”
Hargreaves: Autonomous vehicles will not significantly disrupt city urbanization
“So hesitant to say, just given a lot of natural preferences that go towards cities, that AVs are going to really disrupt things that much.”
Hargreaves: Every Common co-living location generates positive cash flow
“Well, we have a model that works, Every one of our homes makes money and sends cash back to common, and the economics are good, and the members are happy.”
Hargreaves: Scalable businesses do not require every operation to scale perfectly
“I think there are some aspects that scale and some aspects that don't, and not Everything has to scale, so property management is just one of those things, for instance, that you hire one person for every X members, and the distribution channels, however, do s…”
Hargreaves: NYC and SF renters spend up to 65% of income
“In most of these cities, it's well above 50%. In New York, it's between 55 and 60. In San Francisco, it's between 60 and 65.”
Hargreaves: The US is significantly over-retailed compared to European cities
“Keep in mind that the United States is wildly over retail in comparison to other developed countries. The U.S. Has some Retail space per capita than most major European cities.”
Hargreaves: Gas stations and rest stops will suffer from AV adoption
“I think gas stations, rest stops in particular, take a huge hit off of this between moving to autonomous vehicles and moving to electric vehicles as well.”
Hargreaves: Licensed US industries grew from a dozen in 1970 to hundreds
“If you look at the number of industries or fields that have, that require occupational licenses, it's gone from something like a dozen in 1970 to hundreds today.”