autonomous vehicles

also referred to as: autonomous vehicle

31 statements across 17 episodes · 12 bullish · 5 bearish · 16 people on the record · first statement Jan 2, 2019 by Benedict Evans · across every show →

Everything said about autonomous vehicles, oldest first

Jan 2, 2019
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Autonomous vehicle fleets will be bought like corporate IT hardware
“They're not getting chosen based on how nice it feels when you slam the door and, you know, the diamond cut chamfered edges. They're getting bought in the same way that Hertz buys cars, and they're getting bought in the same way that a big company buys PCs. Th…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:45 a16z Podcast | When Software Eats Cars
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chen: Autonomous vehicle ethical programming choices will affect insurance rates
“And I, one of the really interesting trends is this is going to extend to algorithms. In other words, there are going to be ethical programming that we have to do for our cars, right? So the protocol example is, look, you're building the self-driving car, and …”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:00 a16z Podcast | Reinventing Insurance
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Supported
Colford: 41 out of 50 U.S. states lack autonomous vehicle legislation
“Interesting factoid is that 41 out of the 50 states have still not passed any legislation or any...”
Matthew Colford Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 35:47 a16z Podcast | Of Presidents, Policies, and Tech
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frank Chen: Autonomous vehicles will be managed in centralized fleets outside cities
“So think of all the infrastructure that supports these cars, because we're going to have centralized fleets to get the cars fixed and maintained, not my problem. So all of this space is going to free up.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:32 a16z Podcast | Cars and Cities, the Autonomy Edition
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Frank Chen: Autonomous vehicle developers are divided on geographic localization strategies
“And so both research approaches are active. I've talked to people pursuing the look, it's going to be localized in the safe braking distance and how aggressively to take that right turn when you're at a stoplight. All of those things will be pre-programmed for…”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:42 a16z Podcast | Cars and Cities, the Autonomy Edition
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Matiasen: Simulated AV riders still instinctively check for oncoming traffic
“It was not an autonomous vehicle, but we stated that it was an autonomous vehicle for some user research, and one of the interesting things was we had a button that basically said start ride, and we said, oh, you know, the car's autonomous, you don't have to w…”
Taggart Matheson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 22:30 a16z Podcast | Cars and Cities, the Autonomy Edition
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Pope: Shared Autonomous Fleets Will Drive Shift to Electric Vehicles
“The key intervention here, which I'm hoping cities will guarantee, is to make sure that autonomy comes with sharing, with fleet use. Because once that happens, that drives you for a whole host of reasons to electric vehicles.”
Carl Pope Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:07 a16z Podcast | Cars and Cities, the Autonomy Edition
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pope: Autonomous vehicles will hollow out inner-ring suburbs
“Then all of a sudden, a huge amount of urban real estate, downtown central city real estate opens up. And I think what it does is it sucks both residential and business activity away from the inner ring of suburbs. Those hollow out, and then we have the challe…”
Carl Pope Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:11 a16z Podcast | Cars and Cities, the Autonomy Edition
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frank Chen: Future generations will never experience parking anxiety
“And how far will I have to walk? That will just disappear. There'll be generations of people who will never know that anxiety.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:05 a16z Podcast | Cars and Cities, the Autonomy Edition
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Cheap autonomous fleets will push parents to discourage teenage driving
“By the time you get, you know, full self-driving car fleece deployed, and it's, you know, and it's a button on a phone, and the, you know, the ride costs a, you know, a half or a third of what it costs today, it's going to be so cost-effective and so safe. To …”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 32:52 a16z Podcast | From Jobs to Flying Cars
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rep. Schweikert: Distributed ledgers will enable autonomous vehicle insurance by 2027
“If the code were held in a distributive ledger, you know that if someone touched it has a timestamp. You know that the code is the code that was involved in the accident, and that's not esoteric. This is about to change a lot of our lives over the next decade,…”
Congressman David Schweikert Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:28 a16z Podcast | The Blockchain, in Congress
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Frank Chen: The next generation will never drive cars
“I definitely believe they're not going to be driving. They'll be picked up and you know, whether it's, the big question will be two D or three D, right, getting you from .1.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 31:06 a16z Podcast | What Technology Wants, Needs, Does
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Disclosure
Foxx: Federal AV policy was non-prescriptive to avoid 50 state regulation patchwork
“Frankly, there was a lot of concern that we could end up with you know, a situation where 50 different states had 50 different regulations when it comes to autonomous vehicles. And what we tried to do is to lay out a framework that wasn't prescriptive, that le…”
Anthony Foxx Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:36 a16z Podcast | A Society Under Construction - Modernizing Infrastructure
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wilson: Autonomous vehicles and drones will redefine human settlement patterns
“As, you know, autonomous really takes off on the street, you start to see autonomous and drones as, you know, combined the next big paradigm shift in our settlement patterns, right?”
Jace Wilson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:52 a16z Podcast | A Society Under Construction - Modernizing Infrastructure
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
O'Reilly: Owning autonomous fleets creates off-peak utilization problems
“Because if you own all the cars, they're going to be lightly utilized at the times when there's not lots of passengers.”
Tim O'Reilly Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:18 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Opinion
Ducey: Autonomous vehicles are nearly ready for prime time
“I've ridden in three autonomous vehicles, and boy, these things are very close to ready for prime time.”
Doug Ducey Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:11 a16z Podcast | Of Governors and Mayors, and Tech Policy
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: Autonomous vehicles will reduce crime rates via mobile surveillance
“Crime rate will drop, in my opinion, because basically every car will became a moving sensor, collecting tons of real-time information.”
James Wu Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:05 a16z Podcast | Self-Driving Cars — Where Are We, Really?
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Younis: Autonomous Vehicles Cannot Tolerate Post-Deployment Bug Fixes Used in Apps
“Maps is a pretty sophisticated product, but we would do, like, updates where we'd have P-zero bugs introduced into, like, the public domain, and we'd immediately fix those. You can't do that in autonomous vehicles.”
Qasar Younis Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:49 a16z Podcast | Self-Driving Cars — Where Are We, Really?
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Younis: Autonomous Vehicle Regulation Must Target Long-Tail Players Over Established Brands
“The professional quote unquote companies that have brands that have so much riding on it that can't afford to have a real issue, that's not the problem. It's a long tail. It's like fintech regulation. It's not regulating necessarily the Goldman's and Morgan St…”
Qasar Younis Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:13 a16z Podcast | Self-Driving Cars — Where Are We, Really?
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schenck: Bikes will transform cities more than AVs over 20-30 years
“I think bikes will transform cities more than autonomous vehicles over the next 20 to 30 years, and that's because autonomous vehicles are largely going to be transformative in the safety arena.”
Joshua Schenck Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:38 a16z Podcast | All about Bike Sharing
Feb 26, 2019
Insight
Younis: Autonomous vehicles in 2019 mirror mobile technology in 2005
“And I think the, probably a good analogy to think about where we are specifically is, that I like to use is, where mobile was in kind of roughly 2005. What we consider to be the modern smartphone isn't really there.”
Qasar Younis Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 1:25 a16z Podcast | Capitalizing on an Autonomous Vehicle Future
Feb 26, 2019 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Younis: Independent providers will outperform vertical integration in autonomous vehicles
“And so I think with autonomy, I think the arc here, you, you'll see all these individual modules will be run by individual players because there is this natural arc in capitalism, which says the independent providers can do cheaper, better, and faster than any…”
Qasar Younis Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 47:15 a16z Podcast | Capitalizing on an Autonomous Vehicle Future
Feb 26, 2019 neutral
Insight
Younis: Autonomy's tipping point requires non-Silicon Valley user adoption
“So what the general public though will consider the autonomy moment is when you meet somebody who doesn't live in Silicon Valley, doesn't work in technology, and they've done, they've had an autonomous ride. Maybe it's on college campuses, maybe it's an airpor…”
Qasar Younis Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 7:34 a16z Podcast | Capitalizing on an Autonomous Vehicle Future
Jun 26, 2023
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Panigrahi: Waymo AVs drive defensively without assuming drivers obey lights
“It thinks about many small details. Where is it positioning itself? How much gap is it leaving? What's its velocity so that it has the greatest optionality if somebody were to behave recklessly. So when we are crossing that sign, we're not assuming that everyb…”
Saswat Panigrahi Jun 26, 2023 ▶ 44:33 Are Autonomous Vehicles Finally Here? Buckle up!
Jun 26, 2023
Insight
Autonomous vehicles must analyze pedestrian gait and body language to predict intent
“So for example, for that pedestrian, ah, in addition to seeing that they're there, acknowledging, which was this problem one, you got to look at even their gait, their hand movement, their leg movement to anticipate, are they about to take motion?”
Saswat Panigrahi Jun 26, 2023 ▶ 12:12 Are Autonomous Vehicles Finally Here? Buckle up!
Jun 26, 2023
Assertion Supported
Waymo CPO: Regulations mandate steering wheels on larger autonomous fleets
“Specifically about the steering wheel block. Currently by regulations beyond a certain number of vehicles and so on.”
Saswat Panigrahi Jun 26, 2023 ▶ 43:09 Are Autonomous Vehicles Finally Here? Buckle up!
Jun 26, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Driverless vehicles will be mainstream before today's children reach adulthood
“And by the time he grows up, this will be the more common route.”
Saswat Panigrahi Jun 26, 2023 ▶ 46:51 Are Autonomous Vehicles Finally Here? Buckle up!
Jun 26, 2023
Insight
Panigrahi: Autonomous drop-offs require contextual rules over static logic
“It depends on the context. If you're on a busy street like that, and somebody's going to a business, they would like to be dropped very likely in front of the business they're going to. Whereas if they are getting out of home, going to work, and it's a narrow …”
Saswat Panigrahi Jun 26, 2023 ▶ 42:00 Are Autonomous Vehicles Finally Here? Buckle up!
Mar 5, 2024 bearish
Assertion Supported
Casado: Autonomous vehicle unit economics remain worse than Uber and Lyft
“We've invested seventy five billion dollars as an industry, and while we do have autonomous vehicles on the road, and they're great, and they're solving real problems, the unit economics are still worse than, say, Uber and Lyft, because they're competing again…”
Martin Casado Mar 5, 2024 ▶ 2:56 The Future of AI Is Amazing
Jun 4, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Casado: Tech industry has invested $100 billion in autonomous vehicles
“Even to look at autonomous vehicles, I mean, as an industry, we've invested, like, what, a hundred billion dollars in it.”
Martin Casado Jun 4, 2025 ▶ 9:17 How Fei-Fei Li Is Rebuilding AI for the Real World
Sep 4, 2025 bearish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Casado: AV unit economics remain on par with Uber despite $100B invested
“The story for autonomous vehicles is, is that even after the industry's put a hundred billion dollars in it, a hundred billion, the unit economics are still, you know, let's call it on par with Uber.”
Martin Casado Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 31:34 Is Non-Consensus Investing Overrated?
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