Gerstner: Software companies cannot keep top talent from fleeing to AI
“It's almost impossible for a software company today to keep any decent sales people to keep any different, decent product development people, because they all want to go work on AI.”
Rampell: AI startups targeting manual labor categories face no software incumbents
“There are a lot of categories where there never was an incumbent software company because the only job to be done was, like, actual human labor. And that's really exciting because now you don't have to worry about, like, oh, shoot, these guys are gonna come in…”
Taubman: 30-40% AI efficiency gives service businesses software-like incremental margins
“What we've done with AI is when you make your existing teams 30, 40% more efficient and they can handle more customers it changes the whole mindset of the organization. Now you're growing, you look like a software company now where you're now growing with High…”
Sorkin: AI Threat To SaaS Recurring Revenue Could Trigger Credit Defaults
“Well, if you decide the software company is no longer a thing and may not have this recurring revenue, all of a sudden its value has to come down, and all of a sudden, therefore, they would have to lose all their money, and then if for the credit guys who loan…”
Mitchell Green: Average public software company spends ~30% cumulative on R&D
“So if you were to look at your average software company that goes public, You know, if you look at cumulative spend since inception, it's usually around, like, 30% is R&D. So like, a huge amount of these businesses are about, like, sales and marketing, distrib…”
Coogan: Non-software businesses falsely marketed themselves as pure software firms
“There was incentive for a long time for companies that, where their moat was not software, to say, we're a software company, we need to hire the best software engineers, Look at our open source projects, focus on all the cool tech that we're building when real…”
Gazdecki: Founders eventually exit because software companies are rarely passed down
“Everyone will exit their business at one point or another. It's just gonna be up to them, or it's gonna be something that happens, and the business goes a different way, or it's just, it's very rare to pass a business along to your kids, or something like that…”
Rampell: The $2.2T software industry was built on digitizing filing cabinets
“So my thesis is that almost every software company has basically taken a filing cabinet and turned it into a database, and this is where the 2.2 trillion dollars of market cap has come from, this is where the three hundred billion dollars in annual software re…”
Rubin: Headcount is the only software expense large enough to move the needle
“Almost all the money that a software company spends is in people. It's the only expense big enough that you can move the needle.”
Andreessen: Vibe coding cannot build a top-end software company today
“Vibe coding is, like, super exciting for casual development, but, like, you know, at least right now, all of the really sharp, like, you know, technologists I know don't think that you could, like, vibe code a top-end, like, software company. Today.”
Abuzeid: The SF Bay Area remains the world's tech capital.
“I have a belief that the San Francisco Bay Area is still the world's capital of technology. If you want to start a company in, especially a software company, it still is the best place.”
Growth will not get easier for the typical software company anytime soon
“I don't personally. For see an environment where growth gets easier for the standard software company.”
Ladjevardian: One-person billion-dollar businesses will emerge outside tech
“Sam Altman talks about the one person billion dollar tech company, but maybe there is the one person billion dollar company in general. It doesn't necessarily need to be a software company.”
Founders should build in domains where their interest is top 0.1%
“I think that generally people should probably go to wherever they are, like, on the frontier and they are among the most interested, like, top .1% of people interested in a topic. I think that that frontier for most people is where you end up having a lot of g…”
Grossman: $10M ARR software companies are valued 4-5x higher than $5M companies
“A five million dollar ARR software company that's growing at 25% a year versus a ten million dollar ARR software company growing at 25% a year. The ten million dollar company is probably going to be valued at four or five times what the five million ARR is bec…”
Lemkin: Software companies need gross margins above 70% for public markets
“Today, the public markets absolutely care to an extent, right? And a software company really does need to have north of 70% margins.”
Walker: SaaS gross margins will collapse to 60% due to commoditization
“And then over time, I think through pricing pressure and pricing and software commoditization, we'll see margins go even lower. Some people predict as low as 70 or 60% overall, which fundamentally changes the financial dynamics of a software company.”
Tavel: AI enables startups to sell completed work rather than software seats
“What AI enables is actually a very different unit of work that you sell, which is doing the work. And so you're almost a software company that looks like a services business that is able to sell like the full work product that the outcome, as opposed to sellin…”
Gerstner: LLM Compute Intensity Fundamentally Alters Startup Risk-Reward Dynamics
“The capital intensity of that undertaking is very different than starting a software company, right? And so the risk reward to both the founders and the risk reward to the investors changes a lot.”
Software companies will increasingly adopt streetwear-style drop marketing for releases
“If you apply that, like, drop style marketing to a software company, that is what I think Beehive does, and I think a lot of companies are going to start doing that, and to me, that is the modern version of PR.”
Rob Walling says treating a startup like a baby creates unhealthy attachment
“Starting a software company and then being that attached to it, I think is, see the talk from Dr. Sherri Walling a few years ago where she talks about how founders look at their logo and it stimulates the same part of their brain as when they look at pictures …”
Caldwell: Software startups without software co-founders are not in the stadium
“If you're saying, yeah, I'm gonna build a software company. And you don't have a software co-founder, it just, you're not even in the ball game. You're not even in the stadium.”
Average software valuations retraced to six times sales by mid-2023
“What you saw since November of 21 to now is you've now retraced that entire move, and now the average software company is selling for six times sales, which is at the lower end of the range, and so now you're at a point that you can, again, underwrite to much …”
Sam Lessin: Software Startup Passion Pitches Are a Little Crazy
“Anyone who gives you a passion pitch about why they have to found a software company is a little bit crazy, right?”
Sacks: Every software company he knows is re-forecasting down
“Every software company that I know is re-forecasting down.”
Dayton: Software startups should immediately incorporate as C-Corps for QSBS protection
“Every, every company, every software company out there, if you're not a C corp, like change to a C corp immediately. Cause you have to hold for five years as a C corp to get QSBS protection.”
Gerstner: An Altimeter software portfolio company missed its projections by 70%
“We have a software company, you know, where, where people, where they misplanned by 70%, right?”
Keeley: Acquirers without developer management experience will waste money on software companies
“If you've never managed developers before, you're going to blow a lot of money. I'm trying to wrangle them in and build stuff. So like, you know, content sites or something like that, I think is a little easier, like a small content site to start.”
Kellogg: Services Revenue Exceeding 20% to 30% Labels Software Startups as Services
“If you go that route, then you got to be careful because if it gets too big, people are going to say, you're not a software anymore. You're not a software company, Nick. You're a services company pretending to be a software company, right? So you have to be ve…”
Jain: Most Tier-3 Engineering Professors Teach Because They Failed Software Interviews
“Even in engineering education, if you talk about Indian engineering education, especially the tier three engineering colleges. So mostly your teachers or then those are the people, those typically could not get any job in a software company because software co…”
Chamness: Corporate Buyers of Software Companies Often Lack Humility
“I think when you when you buy somebody's software company, there is a certain level of humility that is often lacking Especially for somebody that's in my seat that is doing very little of the doing post acquisition.”
Gerstner: Product-led growth deserves higher multiples than sales-led revenue
“You show me a software company where
The product is flying off the shelves because the people on the other end really need and want the product and love the product, right? That company, even it has lower revenue, deserves a much higher multiple.”
Core software development should be staffed with full-time employees over contractors
“So, the main thing that I think about, and I'm working with both, I've, I have for years, is whether or not it's core to what you have to do, right? Like, if you have a software company, generally, that's kind of core building the software, improving it. It's …”
A Business Is Not a Software Company Unless Core Questions Are Software
“What questions, what are the five questions you would ask to understand what matters for this company? If none of them are software companies, it's not.”
Tringas: The modern American dream is running a remote, profitable software business
“The general idea of the American dream, right, the being successful, the white picket fence, all that sort of, like, just baseline level of success that many people aspire to, I think is really converging around the idea of running a, you know, profitable, rem…”
Reddy: Software companies need $75M–$125M ARR to become billion-dollar businesses
“So the rule of thumb just as a, for your listeners in my book is if you can build a 75 to hundred and twenty-five million dollar ARR company, you can be a billion dollar business. If you built it with healthy margins, which in most software-oriented stuff you …”
SaaS companies cannot profitably solve the customer education problem in marketing
“One of the problems with marketing automation is that you give people a fishing pole and they still don't know how to use it. And that's a problem that as soft, that as a software company, it's very difficult for us to solve profitably”
Andreessen: The winning company in every industry will be a software company
“This version of the thesis is, in any industry as a result of this dynamic, in the long run, the winning company in the industry will be the best software company, right?”
Straz: Software companies refresh executive teams 4.1 times before IPO
“It is said that by the time a software company goes public, on average, they will go through 4.1 complete leadership teams. Which means that they will have to cycle through an entirely new team about every 24 months or so.”
Golec: Consulting firms transitioning into software face severe structural struggles
“I do think a lot of consulting firms that try and go into software really struggle because it's a totally different effort in terms of building a company and getting in finance and hiring their team. There's just a lot more risk involved, and Building a softwa…”