Interest Rates

“Bad jobs report, by the way, can be good for the real estate market because as there are more and more jobs, that's an inflation pressure and also a pressure on the interest rate.”

“That's the good thing, but you've got to underwrite this new purchase at today's rate, not as a hopeful rate. So a deal only works After a future rate cut, that is not a good deal.”

“That's a lot of people betting their plans on a number that nobody controls, and it's one that I don't see coming in the very near future.”

“And if the deal works only at some future lower rate, you don't have a rate problem. You have a deal problem and waiting won't fix it.”

“This week, the Federal Reserve meets, and for the first time in years, the live debate is not whether there's going to be a rate cut, but rather whether there's going to be a rate hike.”

“So if the growth rate of the population is slowing, you should expect to have less investment. That should push down interest rates.”

“We have other exposures like our specialty finance books, legal disbursement funding, insurance premium funding that have almost no correlation to interest rates and unemployment.”

“But we should be ready for if we hit 10% unemployment, 15% unemployment, that we do have stimulus in the back pocket. And I think We do with where interest rates are and with the history of how we've dealt with employment shocks in the past. So I think we are …”

“Less inflation pressure means less reason for the fed to stay aggressive, which over time is friendly to mortgage rates. So It's, what's happening is that the inflationary pressure is not forcing the Fed to increase rates, but we're probably not at a point whe…”

“When the risk-free rate went from zero to five whole percent, Every long duration asset gets repriced, and climate tech is the ultimate, unfortunately, the ultimate long duration category. A company that needs 10 or even you know, 20 years to reach meaningful …”

“If you look at the way inequality in the world has gone, in fact, in the last 1520 years, it has increased because of this exact reason. Very low interest rates for a long period of time. Has created this kind of growth of capital return. Those who have money …”

“At some point, the Chinese or whoever aren't going to show up for one of our treasury auctions, and interest rates are going to skyrocket, and you're going to have, you know, shit's going to get real pretty fast.”

“As a general rule of thumb, bad economic news is pretty good for real estate, and really good economic news is generally bad for real estate because it affects the interest rates and what the Fed is willing to do with interest rates in the opposite direction.”

“Politicians from both sides of the aisle, they want the economy to do great, and they want rates to come down. They're likely not going to get both.”

“I think there are some structural issues which mean that they probably will be A bit higher than they have been.”

“Four percent unemployment, two percent interest rates. Both of those are going to be challenged. Yeah. Both of those are going to be challenged because of very significant techno Technological and macro forces.”

“And by June, I predict we will see more rate cuts. Possibly, 75 to a hundred basis points, and big tax refunds are coming in April, thanks to a bigger standard deduction and no tax on tips overtime and Social Security.”

“I think we're headed for a gangbusters. 2026 rates are coming down.”

“The place at which interest rate increased were I mean, I think we can say in hindsight, this was, like, deeply irresponsible for the country.”

“But what happened in the US with interest rates had basically never happened before. And I think will literally never happen again because it was so obviously stupid.”

“Interest rates soared as high as 75%. 500 banks failed. 15,000 businesses went under.”

“Rates are coming down anyway.”

“I don't think we're going to go back to Zerp any time soon. So interest rates might go down, like, 50 bips or a dot, but it doesn't change the outcome that much.”

“I think that we have so much headroom in the federal reserve rate, that I think we're going to see dramatic cuts close to twenty-twenty-one ZERP levels over the next 12 months.”

“Some of the success that our managers generated in the nineties and the first half of the 2000 was due to equity multiples going up in general. The whole 40 years until very recently was a story of declining interest rates and multiples ought to go up in a mar…”

“Yes, this is an incredibly interest rate sensitive product. Interests go up. That is the principal driver of raising prices.”

“In the CBO estimates, they assume in all of their models that interest rates are at 3.6%.”

“There is a non-linear relationship between the deficit and interest rates, which drives up the debt problem in a non-linear way, and it gets away from you, and you can't fix it.”

“When interest rates are sitting at zero for a period of time, wealthy clients were gonna get significantly more wealthy faster. When there's zero cost to borrow, and you already have assets, regardless of what's happening in the markets, you can redeploy those…”

“There is not some rapid reduction in interest rates that's magically happening. We could be sitting here this time next year, we've come down 75 basis points. We haven't come down 300.”

“I think the ideal interest rate for us is like something like three percent. I think there's lots of kind of VC funding and, ah, business formation at three percent, ah, but we also have the opportunity to make money on our deposits better at three percent.”

“Elon and Besant and others in the administration have echoed trying to get government deficit below three percent of GDP. That seems to be the economic magical number. And if you can do that, rates drop.”

“If we do this and if we tell the American people, you know, that we're going to do this and we put together a believable plan where you're going to cut a trillion dollars and balance the budget in, in the next few years, I'll tell you what's going to happen, r…”

“Interest rates are probably not going down. My bet is that they're Either going to kind of stay where they are, which is fine for kind of absolute, you know levels, but we have some potential policies coming that could drive up interest rates and basically inf…”

“I don't think we're going to see a year that looks anything like 20, 23 or 20, 24 anyway. But if you just said, can we get to 10 or 15% on the market? A couple of things have to happen. You have to see this acceleration in earnings, number one, and number two,…”

“This is not the time to be cutting rates. And the market is saying we are expecting higher rates for longer.”

“At some point, the Chinese or whoever aren't going to show up for one of our treasury auctions, and interest rates are going to skyrocket, and you're going to have, you know, shit's going to get real pretty fast.”

“And why will they cut probably all the way down to two or three percent by the end of 26? It's because we now need to stimulate the economy.”

“If we continue and rates stay high here, I don't see how there's not more pain in private credit.”

“The silver lining is that it probably now tips the balance of action in September to a cut, and if it was 25 basis points, There's probably going to be a lot of folks lobbying the Fed to cut 50, and I think that they probably have enough numerical justificatio…”

“As long as interest rates are high, I think that's what the world's gonna look like for a pretty long time to come, so, you know.”

“And so I kind of tend to be in this camp that we're going to see more than one rate cut.”

“People talk about interest rates. I don't think it's relevant to early stage venture capital, because again, it's like any exit would be 10 years away. And fundamentally to get there, it's just so much more Driven by the quality of the team and the ideas than …”

“In a world where money was priced at zero, zero or negative interest rates, it didn't really matter that stuff was slow. It really matters that stuff is slow when there's a time value associated with money.”

“In terms of the broader companies and their business models, oftentimes with some of these climate tech companies, you do have what we call capital intensity, meaning that you need to spend a lot of dollars at CapEx or R&D or et cetera to develop your product …”

“I don't think it's tied to interest rates. I don't think it's tied to that. I think it's more tied to the quality of the leadership and the need of the business to do more than optimization.”

“Personally, I think it will take longer for rates to come down.”

“I have previously said that I thought they were a bit slow to increase rates.”

“And back then the Dow is at 700. Interest rates were at 16%. And there were very, very few technology companies with more than a few hundred million in market cap.”

“When either valuations are coming down rapidly, going up rapidly, when interest rates are going up rapidly and the valuations are coming down because the markets are just, you know, wrapped with this new environment where there's actually a cost of capital, th…”

“Second, I really have never met a person over a long period of time who's generated a high rate of return by guessing where interest rates are going. So yes, you're right once. Yes, you're right twice, but not in the long run.”

“Every day that interest rates are off, are one percent higher based on the current federal debt level, we're paying an incremental billion dollars in interest payments per day.”

“But I think that the environment we've just lived through of essentially zero percent rates, that's just weird. There's no fundamental justification for that. And I think we'll look back on it as a, as just a very unusual episode, but we'll be looking back on …”

“They're not going much down. I mean, I think we have sustained inflation for structural reasons for a decade. Yeah. Plus or minus, they might be slightly alleviated, but there's a lot of very strong reasons why this zero interest rate or low interest rate envi…”

“If they do, the United States government's gonna be in a lot of trouble. We can't pay our debt of 10% interest. They have to keep printing money, and then you have an inflationary cycle, which then makes interest rates go even higher.”

“That appears to be the straw that broke the camel's back, and like, the offshore wind industry is reeling, basically, as a result of that.”

“Some developers are going to lose a bunch of money because they price things, you know, rates that are untenable today. Like it's just going to be a pain, a painful shakeout at the asset level for some period of time. I don't know exactly how long, partially b…”

“Which the residential solar market between interest rates and some policy changes, particularly in California around net metering, that's a market that might be down over the next year. You know, relative to this year, and I think this year might be down relat…”

“So, my guess is, and this is just a guess, and he who lives by the crystal ball will eat glass, but that it looks more like a slow bleed out than one sort of imminent moment. Of course there will be shocks, but I think what it looks like is for a protracted pe…”

“The UK, it seems like, I don't know what you guys think, it's definitely going to seven, and it could go to eight.”