Jacob Miller (Opto) and Joe Lonsdale evaluate whether the US faces an immediate debt crisis or a prolonged period of higher interest rates.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Miller: Rising US debt will eventually trigger money printing and inflation
“So what's gonna happen if we keep running up the debt like this? Eventually you're gonna have to print to solve that, and that will be inflationary.”
Opinion
Miller: Studying classics and history beats academic economics for understanding markets
“So much of academic econ right now is about solving for some global maxima using physics equations that really don't belong in our economy. Whereas studying classics in history, just seeing how civilizations grow, thrive, and ultimately fall, has a lot more be…”
Opinion
Miller: Bridgewater spent too much time discussing how to talk about problems
“There were a lot of tools and structures and red tape put in place, which, you know, maybe at the company that size, it's unavoidable, but it felt like too much of our time was spent on Talking about how to talk about problems than the problems themselves.”
Insight
Miller: Outperformance requires unique info, unique access, insight, or luck
“I think there's really only four ways to outperform. You need to have a unique, unique information, unique access, unique insight, or have luck.”
Opinion
Miller: Registered liquid private credit products carry underestimated risks
“Now, there's a little bit too much hype in this space right now at an aggregate level, and a lot of these registered liquid products are being marketed to RAs and their clients, and we think there's more risk in those than people assume, because you, once you'…”
Insight
Miller: Unaddressed underperformance causes star employees to leave and organizations to fail
“Great people want to work with other great people, and organizations can really die when you have someone who's a star, and they see other people around them underperforming, and that not being rectified.”