The Calls
Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger checks it again against the public record.
Everyone Kevin Mandia (4)Jake DeWitt (4)Maria Corina Machado (3)Ken Langone (3)Congressman Mike Gallagher (3)Balaji Srinivasan (3)Tony Fadell (2)Tim Urban (2)Marc Andreessen (2)Joe Lonsdale (2)Jared Isaacman (2)Gene Berdachevsky (2)
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Next up (27)
109 days left 2026-12-31
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Fully autonomous cyber defense systems will arrive in two to three years
“I think AI will advantage the offense in the near term, but everybody knows that and everybody's waiting to be able to, we're gonna have a total shift change in cybersecurity where you'll have AI agents on offense Being the cheapest way to create that autonomo…”
1205 days left 2029-12-31
1414 days left 2030-07-28
1570 days left 2030-12-31
Berdichevsky predicts battery costs will reach $50/kWh by 2030
“And so you can plot that out and you can see the costs. If technology improves trending to kind of 50 bucks a kilowatt hour, which would have been unthinkable to people, you know just a few years ago. I mean, a hundred seemed like a real stretch for everybody.…”
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
1570 days left 2030-12-31
2053 days left 2032-04-27
2361 days left 2033-03-01
2740 days left 2034-03-15
Tyler Scriven predicts US e-commerce will triple over the next decade
“I mean, the e-commerce, e-commerce in the U.S. Will triple most likely over the next decade in the U.S.
You know, it's taken us 24 years, you know, to get to where we are today.
And we're going to you know, two and a half, three X at
You know over the next 10…”
3031 days left 2034-12-31
3215 days left 2035-07-03
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will scale massively over the next decade
“These human robots, like the general purpose robotics thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to …”
3496 days left 2036-04-09
4857 days left 2039-12-31
Israetel: Society will eliminate biological aging by the mid-to-late 2030s
“I think a lot of people aren't prepared for the mid to late 20 thirties, maybe even earlier, when the, when we just don't have old people anymore. We have people that are chronologically 57 years old, but biologically they look 22.”
4857 days left 2039-12-31
6974 days left 2045-10-17
8875 days left 2050-12-31
8875 days left 2050-12-31
8875 days left 2050-12-31
18218 days left 2076-07-30
27137 days left 2100-12-31
Closed calls (28) the full record →
Aboyeji: Africa will have the majority of the global workforce by 2035
“In fact, just in the next 15 years, Africa is already majority of the world's working population.”
Cotton: China's nuclear arsenal will double by 2030 and again by 2035
“They've more than doubled the number of warheads they have since Xi took office. It's gonna double again, our Pentagon estimates, by the end of this decade, and double again by the middle of the next decade.”
McCord: AI infrastructure spending will reach $1T by early 2030s
“I think, you know, it'll be the biggest infrastructure build that humanity has ever done, I think. I think you could make that argument. I think we will hit a trillion dollars in the early 20 thirties.”
Defensive teams will run offensive AI agents to train defense systems
“There is no question that In the future, you'll have AI agents on offense run by the good guys to train the AI on defense run by the good guys.”
Mandia: Good guys will use offensive AI agents to train defensive AI
“There is no question that in the future you'll have AI agents on offense run by the good guys to train the AI on defense run by the good guys.”
Cotton: Supreme Court will restrict nationwide district court injunctions
“So I think these activist liberal judges are issuing so many of these injunctions that you will see a decision I hope sooner rather than later at the Supreme Court where the Supreme Court using its power the apex of our judicial system outlines the circumstanc…”
Lonsdale: Joby Aviation will be the first eVTOL company to deploy
“And so I think you guys, like you said, you're first through, you're going to be the first to deploy.”
Srinivasan: Europe, Asia, and Latin America will keep Bitcoin legal
“That means that Europe, the Middle East, big parts of Latin America, big parts of Asia, it will be at a minimum legal to buy, sell, send, and receive Bitcoin.”
Lonsdale: Xi Jinping will shut down TikTok rather than allow a sale
“I think because this is such a powerful tool for the CCP that Xi Jinping will not allow it to be Sold out of his control and we'll turn it off instead.”
Berdichevsky: Automotive scale will make lithium-ion dominate electrical grid storage
“Being somebody who's in lithium ion, I actually think the scale of automotive will also lead lithium ion to dominate most of the grid.”
Kloberdanz: People born today are on track to live to 150
“But we're on the way to where people are expected to live to like a 150 that are being born now.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Bitcoin will be 10x PayPal and may be 10x gold
“I think Bitcoin will in the fullness of time, it's certainly 10 X, it will be 10 X PayPal. It may be 10 X gold.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Ethereum will be more valuable than Stripe
“Ethereum will be you know, like it's more valuable than Stripe, for example.”
Lonsdale: Joby Aviation will launch operations in Dubai within a year
“I think we're going to be launching in Dubai with Joby in the coming year.”
Hodges: Private market assets will reach $25T in a couple of years
“It's a 15 trillion dollar asset industry today. It's going to be a 25 trillion dollar asset industry in the next couple of years.”
Verdon: Extropic thermodynamic compute will reach production in a couple years
“I'm, I haven't announced any prototypes yet, but you know, we have our first test chips, and we're iterating, but I think a couple years from now, we'll be able to have this in, in production.”
Lowery: Epirus Will Enter a DoD Program of Record in 2025
“We are deploying to CENTCOM. If those deployments are successful, we will be palmed into a program or record In 20, 25.”
Baker: Global economic recovery is causing goods inflation to accelerate again
“And now goods is accelerating again because the rest of the world is recovering.”
Barnard: EVs will integrate with home bi-directional power in under three years
“Your electric car will be fully integrated in this house we're sitting in in probably under three years with bi-directional inverters where you'll say, well, wait a minute, I kind of want to, you know, deploy energy into my car right now, or maybe I want my ca…”
Sprowls predicts risk assessment will highlight cybersecurity and coastal flooding
“I believe that you're going to see massive risks in cybersecurity. I think you're gonna see massive risks in coastal flooding, both of which are two issues that we looked at last year and had some significant movement on.”
Williams: Half of Americans will view the 2024 election as illegitimate
“Fully half of the country, I think in 20, 24 Either way the election pans out will feel that the election was illegitimate, and that's.”
Gerstner: Fed's 1.5% GDP forecast for 2024 is probably overly optimistic
“The Fed has said its forecast for next year is 1.5% on GDP. I think that's probably rosy. Given, ah, the things that we're seeing in the world, 20% credit cards, 10% car loans, eight percent mortgages are having a deleterious impact on consumption.”